I’m Marty Dahlman. I spent most of my career teaching government, and a lot of my spare time working on politics (from local to national campaigns). In this age of “identification”, you can put my ideology in the Liberal column (I hate the new-speak “Progressive”) and politically in the Democratic party. Now you’ve got me categorized, it might be time to “turn me off”. That’s what we do in this new political world: “turn off” any ideas that might conflict with our own: ideas that might pierce our little bubble.
But if you’re still here, I’d like to talk about the new world we live in: Trump-World.
As a Democrat I closely identify with what President Obama said during the campaign: that in the near past, both candidates for president might disagree, but both were actually qualified for the job. Is Donald Trump qualified for the job he holds now? And if not, then what might happen to us all?
Chaos Theory – the science of non-linear surprise events that are inter-connected and create unforeseen consequences. Sounds like the first week of the Trump administration. From the travel ban (which sounds a lot like the promised “Muslim ban”) to the executive order to end the Affordable Care Act (more symbolic than real) to the now rumored executive order to “insure religious freedom” (and deny civil rights to those whose lives don’t pass the religious right’s litmus tests); the Trump administration seems to bump from one chaotic moment to another. It’s the same way the Trump campaign operated, and while it seems impossible, it’s the strategy that won the White House. I don’t think it’s an accident, there is intent to the constant “new issue”, the next “tweet” or pronouncement. And whether it’s factual or actual, it doesn’t even matter: it can be addressed by new “alternate facts” or constant modification of what was said or meant.
It’s a clear strategy – how many times can the New York Times say falsehood or dis-credited or even call a lie a lie, before we stop listening or stop believing anything. And when we do stop listening, the only “facts” we will hear are those from the administration. Besides, a large minority (those that voted for Trump) already believe that “alternative facts” are true, and aren’t interested in hearing anything else.
I’d say it’s time to take the camper and head up to Montana to hide out – wait, isn’t that where the “Breitbart” guys are??
So what happens next?
Spheres of influence – like orbits of planets around a sun, the Trump administration has set up, intentionally or not, spheres of influence. And while from my ideologic/political standpoint none of these guys comes close to representing me, there still may be some that are better than others.
Clearly the first sphere of influence (over Presidential decisions) is the Bannon/Flynn sphere. They have the President’s ear now, and Bannon represents the current instigator of Chaos Theory in Politics. The “shock and awe” of the past ten days is thanks to his influence. Certainly the removal of the Director of Intelligence and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Staff and their replacement by Bannon was a move to consolidate power. So to was the removal of the Presidential Daily Briefing authorship from Central Intelligence to the While House National Security office. As long as they hold sway, we can expect this constant drip of adrenalin and anxiety to continue (and the cheering of our “alt-right” friends.
The second sphere, and one that might offer some hope for a future that doesn’t feel “on the brink” at every tweet, is the “old GOP” sphere, represented by the Pence-Priebus-Ryan-McConnell constellation. They are the remainders of the conservative wing, with the same old tired conservative ideas of less government in business, more government in private lives, and let the rich get richer.
They have their own agenda, and as Trump’s administration moves to actually trying to pass legislation (as opposed to governing by executive order – say – isn’t that what they were so angry at Obama for?) they will gain more influence over the President.
The third sphere is the cabinet secretaries, particularly State, Defense and Homeland Security. General Mattis seems to be a consensus pick at Defense as does Kelly at Homeland Security, and while Tillerson doesn’t come from a background that thrills an old liberal Democrat, he does seem to have an air of competence and leadership that feels steadier than the current direction. As this administration ages, it will be interesting to see if it matures through the counsel of these secretaries, or if their influence is ignored. If that happens, expect that these men will make an early exit from the fray.
The fourth sphere is the Executive Branch of the United States. We’ve already seen some stand up: the firing of acting Attorney General Sally Yates and ICE Director Daniel Ragsdale and the letter of dissent by the career State Department employees. These represent the top of the pyramid, but there are thousands (maybe millions) of employees, many of whom have a clear idea of what a “lawful” order is. This could be the “dark hole”, a constant force that is unrecognized and unseen.
And the final sphere: the Courts, with over eight hundred Obama appointees scattered throughout the country. They have been nurtured in an era of civil rights applying to all forms of human differences: they will not easily be persuaded to curtail those rights. And while a battle looms for the control of the Supreme Court (not this appointment as much as the next one); those judges stand as a counter-force to the loss of freedom and human dignity.
This is the “night sky” we see: all trying to gain influence over the actions of the nation. Whether there are “winners and losers”, or much more complicated interactions among the forces: this is the “chaos” that represents the Trump Administration.
It is not just his lies and refusal to govern like every President who has gone before him. He blatantly disregards protocol, common knowledge, reliable data and social mores.
Every one who tells him he is wrong is the enemy, Distinguished Judges, respected journalists, Members of congress on both sides who point out his inaccuracies and beliefs.
When you think of what kind of person would hear the leader of our country call Senator Warren Pocahontas and not be outraged, then you are understanding who makes up his fans. Their minds can’t be changed. When you think about the current leaders who do not call him out every time he uses that word you understand who is going to be enacting his outrageous policies. Their minds were bought. When you think about who loves this kind of rhetoric you understand his rabid base. They have no minds.
A poignant synopsis of the state of affairs. . . depressing and real. What I find truly appalling (and unique, from my experience) is the utter apathy towards all this lying and indecency from such a large proportion of one side of the electorate. I’m at a point where I can’t really imagine what the President would have to do or say in order for them to hold him accountable for it. How can this be countered? I’m looking forward to your suggestions for the countermove, Dahlman.
Well done, Martin. I would add that the press is another important sphere of influence. It is bc of the press’ diligence that the Flynn stuff emerged, taking down 1 of the 2 identified keys to your first sphere