{"id":891,"date":"2018-06-02T09:57:21","date_gmt":"2018-06-02T13:57:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=891"},"modified":"2018-06-02T09:57:21","modified_gmt":"2018-06-02T13:57:21","slug":"trust-but-verify","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/06\/02\/trust-but-verify\/","title":{"rendered":"Trust but Verify"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trust but Verify<\/p>\n

In the 1980\u2019s, President Ronald Reagan drove the Soviet Union to the nuclear bargaining table by outspending them on weapons.\u00a0 The United States was spending 6% of its GDP \u00a0(gross domestic product) on defense, to match it, the Soviets were forced to spend almost 20% of theirs.\u00a0 Those of the right age will remember the \u201cStar Wars\u201d defense, a satellite in space that could launch rockets at enemy missiles and destroy them above the atmosphere.\u00a0The US never completed \u201cStar Wars\u201d to our knowledge, but the effort forced the Soviets to spend their rubles to keep up.\u00a0 \u00a0It was an untenable position that drove them to negotiate.\u00a0 It ultimately was a major cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

In the negotiations, which resulted in the INF (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces) treaty and the groundwork for START \u00a0(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) many Americans were fearful that the Soviets could not be trusted: that they would sign the treaties but secretly continue to develop the banned weapons.\u00a0 To these concerns, Reagan responded with an old Russian proverb, \u201cDoveryai, no proveryai<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 trust but verify.<\/p>\n

From the many essays in \u201cTrump World<\/a>\u201d it should be clear that I am not a Donald Trump fan.\u00a0 But I am an American, and however I feel about our current President I would like to see him succeed in his dealings with North Korea.\u00a0 To him I say \u201cdoveryai, no proveryai.\u201d\u00a0 The North Koreans have a long history of faithless bargaining, agreeing to many things at the table, but continuing in secret with the development of their nuclear and ballistic missile programs.\u00a0 Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama have all hoped for a truthful North Korean response, and have all been let down.<\/p>\n

It isn\u2019t that they didn’t know.\u00a0 And it isn\u2019t that they didn\u2019t plan for North Korean subterfuge.\u00a0 They made these treaties in the hope that North Korea would follow through and normalize their relations with the world, but in full knowledge that it was a hope and not a surety.\u00a0 Clinton, Bush and Obama all believed in \u201cDoveryai, no proveryai.\u201d<\/p>\n

And now, through what feels like a series of seat of your pants maneuvers, the \u201cGreat Deal-maker\u201d is planning to sit at the table with the \u201cSupreme Leader\u201d of North Korea.\u00a0Perhaps it was the \u201cbig stick\u201d strategy that the President has employed, threatening \u201cfire and fury\u201d if the North Koreans won\u2019t give up their nuclear capabilities.\u00a0 Perhaps it is that North Korea has reach a point where they no longer need to test their nuclear tipped ballistic missiles, and can easily give up their testing facilities without losing their arsenal.<\/p>\n

Or perhaps, just maybe, the Supreme Leader, spending 22% of his nation\u2019s GDP on defense, has decided it’s time to allow his people to stop starving and to share in the economic development that his neighbors have enjoyed.\u00a0 Perhaps, by Trump allowing Kim to sit at the \u201cbig boy table\u201d of world diplomacy; Kim will be willing to bring his country into the economic world where all of the nations around him:\u00a0 Japan, South Korea, China, and Taiwan; are enjoying great prosperity and a high standard of living for all their people.<\/p>\n

President Trump has allowed expectations to rise exponentially.\u00a0 He has violated the rules of diplomacy, giving North Korea the prize of a summit with the leader of the free world, without a price. \u00a0Trump needs this summit, and he needs it to succeed.\u00a0 He sees this as a way to prevent a Democrat takeover of Congress in the fall, and he may really see it as an advance in world peace.\u00a0 I hope he earns a Nobel Prize, not by having the meeting, but by making real progress in denuclearizing the peninsula.<\/p>\n

So to the Trump negotiating team: \u201cDoveryai, no proveryai.\u201d\u00a0 Don\u2019t get in too much of a hurry, estimates are that it would take fifteen years to establish a verification program in North Korea that would really know whether they are disarming or not.\u00a0 Doveryai, no proveryai:\u00a0 we didn\u2019t believe the facts of UN\u2019s International Atomic Energy Agency in 2002, and we invaded Iraq on false information.\u00a0 Some of the folks who pushed for that invasion are members of your team, including the National Security Advisor.\u00a0 Don\u2019t get pushed into failure in negotiations, in order to hurry along and start a war.<\/p>\n

And to the American people: \u201cDoveryai, no proveryai.\u201d\u00a0 We know how badly the President wants and needs this effort to succeed.\u00a0 While we wish him luck, we also know that he is the master of \u201crelative truth\u201d and \u201cfake news.\u201d\u00a0 Whatever the perceived or published outcome of a Singapore summit, we must trust but verify too.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trust but Verify In the 1980\u2019s, President Ronald Reagan drove the Soviet Union to the nuclear bargaining table by outspending them on weapons.\u00a0 The United States was spending 6% of its GDP \u00a0(gross domestic product) on defense, to match it, the Soviets were forced to spend almost 20% of theirs.\u00a0 Those of the right age … Continue reading “Trust but Verify”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nTrust but Verify : Our America - 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