{"id":8665,"date":"2026-06-19T09:19:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T13:19:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=8665"},"modified":"2026-06-19T09:19:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T13:19:22","slug":"and-the-winner-is","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2026\/06\/19\/and-the-winner-is\/","title":{"rendered":"And the Winner Is\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

War in Iran<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On February 28th<\/sup>, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Wednesday, June 17th<\/sup>, 2026, President Donald Trump agreed to a \u201cMemorandum of Understanding\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0That agreement calls for hostilities to end by all parties, while a further treaty is negotiated over the next sixty days.\u00a0\u00a0But the \u201cMemorandum\u201d does more than just create another ceasefire. It also creates the foundation for an ultimate resolution of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s been one hundred and thirteen days of war.\u00a0\u00a0We have some idea of what the US casualties were:\u00a0\u00a013 Americans dead, and 381 wounded.\u00a0\u00a0But US actions (along with our ally Israel and Iran\u2019s responses) have killed over 7500 and injured over 40,000, mostly civilians caught in the crossfire of battle (Al Jazzira<\/em><\/a>)<\/em>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Consequences<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

And as with any war, there were economic consequences.\u00a0\u00a0The United States spent at least $150 Billion. It’s the cost of moving assets into and out of the region, keeping fleets of ships on station, and the enormous numbers of weapons used (and aircraft lost) in the battle.\u00a0\u00a0The closing of the Strait of Hormuz created worldwide economic impact. It dramatically escalated the cost of oil and all petroleum products.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not just the price of gasoline, but also fertilizer that has gone through the roof.\u00a0\u00a0The world supply of glycol, a key component of plastics, is limited as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But wars aren\u2019t fought to see who would spend the most.\u00a0\u00a0They \u201cwinners\u201d get what they want, the \u201closers\u201d give up more than they got.\u00a0\u00a0The war was started by the United States, as we now know, at the behest of Israel.\u00a0\u00a0The question is, who won?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Failed Revolution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the attacks on Iran did a significant amount of damage.\u00a0\u00a0There is no replacing those killed in the \u201cdecapitation\u201d strikes on Iranian leadership.\u00a0\u00a0Instead, the replacements now in control of Iran seem to be even more entrenched in maintaining the theocratic autocracy that the US hoped to topple.\u00a0\u00a0Their leader, the Ayatollah, was killed.\u00a0\u00a0But his son, the new Ayatollah, is even more rigid than the father.\u00a0\u00a0The budding internal revolution in Iran was snuffed out, in part by the work of the Republican Guard, and in part by the looming presence of the greater enemy, the US and Israel.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So there is no hope for a \u201cmoderate state\u201d takeover of Iran.  That\u2019s one failed US goal of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unclear Nuclear<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Almost a year ago, in June of 2025, the United States (again, along with Israel) launched a major attack against the Iranian nuclear development program.\u00a0\u00a0We dropped some of the biggest non-nuclear bombs in existence, attempting to destroy the Iranian enrichment facilities.\u00a0\u00a0Americans heard about the complexity of the operation, flying B-2 Stealth Bombers from Whitman Air Force Base in Missouri, 7000 miles one-way to Iran (Nuts and Bolts<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s enriched uranium supply probably wasn\u2019t \u201ctotally destroyed\u201d as the Trump Administration then claimed.\u00a0\u00a0But a whole lot of it was buried hundreds of feet underground.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number one expressed goal of the US in this current war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.\u00a0\u00a0That is clearly written in the Memorandum.\u00a0\u00a0But, as President Obama discovered in the two-year negotiations for the original nuclear limitation agreement, the JCPOA, the devil is truly in the details.\u00a0\u00a0President Trump and Vice President Vance assure America they can get a \u201cdeal\u201d done in sixty days.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The jury is still out on this goal.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Choked Economic Life<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

An unintended consequence of the Iran War was the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, throttling the economic life of the entire world.\u00a0\u00a0Before the war, the Strait was \u201cinternational waters\u201d, with free passage for commerce.\u00a0\u00a0During the hostilities, Iran managed to close the strait, in spite of the presence of the largest US Naval fleet assembled in history, and the destruction of most of Iran\u2019s surface fleet.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Cheap drones, simple mines, and suicide speed boats can\u2019t sink Naval ships, but can wreak havoc on the tankers and container ships trying to transit the Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The memorandum implies that after sixty days, Iran will have a continuing administrative and financial stake in the controlling the Strait.\u00a0\u00a0Before the war:\u00a0\u00a0open waters.\u00a0\u00a0Now, and perhaps from here on, Iran will \u201cget a cut\u201d of every ship passing through, millions of dollars in fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran wins that unexpected consequence of US actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cash, Cash, Cash<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

And finally there\u2019s the \u201cbottom line\u201d for Iran, money.\u00a0\u00a0As Vice President Vance noted, Iran\u2019s \u201cAchilles Heel\u201d is the weakness of their economy.\u00a0\u00a0Certainly the destruction wreaked by the US bombings made things even worse.\u00a0\u00a0But part of the Memorandum is that the United States will pay for damages, what in other eras would be called reparations.\u00a0\u00a0The US is offering billions of dollars to \u201crebuild Iran\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0A couple of months ago, I wrote an essay about a book called\u00a0The Mouse that Roared<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em>It was\u00a0<\/em>about a mythical tiny country that invades the US in hopes of losing and getting economic help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran must have read the book.\u00a0\u00a0Trump is offering more money to Iran than the JPCOA promised.\u00a0\u00a0And, unlike the Obama plan, the Memorandum offers continuing Iranian income, both at the Strait, and also with lifted sanctions on Iranian oil.\u00a0After all, Trump needs to do something (anything) to restore the world\u2019s oil supply.\u00a0\u00a0As the President said, he doesn\u2019t want to be another \u201cHerbert Hoover\u201d whose actions helped start the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Score another for Iran, the Ayatollah, and the Republican Guard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, Iran has suffered enormous damage.\u00a0\u00a0Their first and second levels of leadership were killed.\u00a0\u00a0Their economy is in deep trouble.\u00a0\u00a0And they remain in conflict with the largest military power ever in the history of the world.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, so far, they seem to be the winners.  \u201cDo you believe in miracles?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m sure, so far, the Iranian leaders do.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

War in Iran On February 28th, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Wednesday, June 17th, 2026, President Donald Trump agreed to a \u201cMemorandum of Understanding\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0That agreement calls for hostilities to end by all parties, while a further treaty is negotiated over the next sixty days.\u00a0\u00a0But the \u201cMemorandum\u201d does more than just … Continue reading “And the Winner Is\u2026”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Who is winning in the Iran War? 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