It was 2004.\u00a0\u00a0George W Bush was President.\u00a0\u00a0The controversy of the 2000 Presidential election, decided not by the American people, but by a five to four partisan vote of the US Supreme Court, was fresh.\u00a0\u00a0And after that crisis, there was the attack on 9-11, war in Afghanistan, and a \u201cwar of choice\u201d in Iraq.\u00a0\u00a0The United States attacked with, as Vice President Cheney often said, \u201cshock and awe\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Iraqi defeat was swift, then Americans turned the country upside down looking for Saddam Hussein and nuclear bombs.\u00a0\u00a0We found the former, and he was soon executed.\u00a0\u00a0But the latter never existed.\u00a0\u00a0The prime reason for invasion, nuclear weapons, was a fraud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So in the election of 2004, Bush wasn\u2019t a \u201csure thing\u201d, despite his 9-11 leadership.\u00a0\u00a0And one of the critical states for Bush to win was the then swing-state, Ohio.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cAs Ohio goes, so goes the Nation\u201d; just twenty years ago Ohio was generally one of the deciding factors in Presidential outcomes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ohio\u2019s political divisions are pretty clear.\u00a0\u00a0There are the Democratic strongholds \u2013 the cities in the Northeast corner, Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown.\u00a0\u00a0There are the less assured Democratic areas:\u00a0\u00a0the urban centers of Columbus, Toledo, Dayton and Cincinnati, surrounded by heavily Republican suburbs. (In more recent times, some of those suburbs are trending \u201cpurple\u201d rather than \u201cred\u201d, but not in 2004).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And then there\u2019s the rest of the state (except, of course, for Athens) either Republican farmers, or the Appalachian southeast quarter, once Democratic, but now more Republican.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the final analysis, Ohio was then, and still is, an almost even split.\u00a0\u00a0Which party gains control depends entirely in who turns out to cast their ballots.\u00a0\u00a0In 2004, the Secretary of State was Ken Blackwell, a Cincinnati Republican.\u00a0\u00a0His strategy:\u00a0\u00a0put an issue on the ballot that would drive Republicans to the polls, even if the Bush record didn\u2019t.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The issue was \u201csimple\u201d back in 2004.\u00a0\u00a0It made the state controlled power of marriage available to only \u201ca man and a woman\u201d, outlawing gay marriage in the state.\u00a0\u00a0And while America has dramatically changed in the past twenty-two years, at the time banning same-sex marriage was a \u201cslam-dunk\u201d proposal, guaranteed to bring Republicans out to vote.\u00a0\u00a0While they were there, they chose George W Bush for President.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bush won over Democrat John Kerry by 2%, and Ohio\u2019s electoral votes put him in the White House for four more years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since 2004, Ohio has been sliced and diced by re-districting.\u00a0\u00a0Republicans have assured a massive majority in the State Legislatures.\u00a0\u00a0And the Democratic Party has been enfeebled; without money, or candidates, or the spirit to even make a good fight in most statewide races.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But it\u2019s 2026, a prime moment for a Democratic resurgence in the state.\u00a0\u00a0President Trump is trapped in the \u201cforever war\u201d he promised not to fight.\u00a0\u00a0Gas prices, a huge issue in a state with little public transportation outside the urban centers, are higher than when Republicans were putting stickers on the pumps saying \u201cThanks Joe Biden\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0(As the cost approached $5 a gallon, I saw some \u201cThanks Trump\u201d stickers appear!!).\u00a0\u00a0Trump\u2019s approval rating has never been lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the legislative districts are drawn prohibitively to Republican specifications, statewide Democratic candidates have a real chance.\u00a0\u00a0Republican John Husted was appointed to his US Senate seat, and is facing a well-financed challenge from former Senator Sherrod Brown.\u00a0\u00a0And the improbable Amy Acton is running a strong Democratic race for governor, against billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy.\u00a0\u00a0Neither Ramaswamy or Husted are the kind of candidates that will drive Republicans to the polls.\u00a0\u00a0And, here in Ohio and in the nation, Trump is reason enough for Democrats to come out and make their votes heard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So Republicans are trying to replicate Blackwell\u2019s strategy:\u00a0\u00a0find a Constitutional issue that will bring their voters to the polls.\u00a0\u00a0And they think they have it: Picture ID\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0Yesterday the state legislature passed a resolution enshrining a picture ID requirement for voting into the state constitution.\u00a0\u00a0It will be on the November ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now, Ohio has some of the highest standards for voting in the Nation already.\u00a0\u00a0And a picture ID has been a part of those standards for a number of years.\u00a0\u00a0So, like much of what this current legislature does, they are solving a problem that doesn\u2019t actually exist.\u00a0\u00a0But what they are really doing is searching for that issue that will get voters to the polls, when their candidates aren\u2019t likely to do so.\u00a0\u00a0This is\u00a0\u00a0their \u201cBlackwell maneuver\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can hear the campaign now:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cDemocrats want to cheat, that\u2019s why they are against picture ID\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0Vote for election integrity\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To be frank, this isn\u2019t a strongly felt cultural issue.\u00a0\u00a0If that\u2019s the best Republicans got, then Democrats really do have a good shot at winning in November.\u00a0\u00a0Most Ohioans will scratch their heads, and say, \u201cWe already do that. There\u2019s no need to rush to the polls to protect what we already have.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rest assured, Republicans will do everything possible; legal, questionable, and even beyond the law, to maintain power in Ohio.\u00a0\u00a0But in today\u2019s political climate, even that might not be enough.\u00a0\u00a0Picture ID surely won\u2019t be the \u201cmagic motivator\u201d of the Republican vote.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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