At the end of World War II, American leaders realized several things.\u00a0\u00a0First, the nature of warfare was unalterably changed by the creation of nuclear weapons.\u00a0\u00a0In the future, no \u201cWorld War\u201d in the nature of the First or Second, could be fought.\u00a0\u00a0At the end of such a war, no country would accept ultimate defeat without using their nuclear weapons.\u00a0\u00a0And as nuclear weapons developed even far beyond the \u201cManhattan Project\u201d model, it became clear that another World War would destroy the world as we know it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, American leaders recognized that big wars come from little wars.\u00a0\u00a0World War I began with a crisis between Serbia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire.\u00a0\u00a0World War II could have been prevented with an enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles in the early 1930\u2019s or at the Munich Pact.\u00a0\u00a0None of the World War I \u201cwinning\u201d countries including the United States, were willing to make that commitment.\u00a0\u00a0When it became clear that Nazism was the world threat, it was also too late to easily defeat it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0So America reversed course from its post-World War I isolationism, when the US refused to enter the League of Nations.\u00a0\u00a0Instead, the US proposed the United Nations, headquartered in New York City.\u00a0\u00a0The ultimate goal of the UN was to contain the small conflicts that could develop into worldwide issues in a nuclear world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And third, the United States recognized that the post-World War II rival was the Soviet Union.\u00a0\u00a0We fought together with them against Fascism in the war, with American and Soviet troops locking arms at the Elbe River.\u00a0\u00a0What they didn\u2019t realize at the time was that river would become the dividing point between Allied backed West Germany, and Soviet backed East Germany.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So the United States organized a military treaty alliance to offset the Soviet bloc of countries.\u00a0\u00a0NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) surrounded the Soviet borders from the Arctic all the way to its Southern Border with Turkey.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviets responded with the Warsaw Bloc, the countries they occupied and controlled after the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those institutions, the United Nations and NATO, outlasted the Soviet Union.\u00a0\u00a0The Cold War era ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union on Christmas of 1991.\u00a0\u00a0Some of the analysts of the 1990\u2019s saw an opportunity to tap into the vast wealth of Russia (the successor state to the USSR), especially with the literal \u201cfire sale\u201d of the former Communist industrial assets.\u00a0\u00a0What they didn\u2019t plan on, is that Russia would \u201ccome back\u201d; no longer Communist, but with a more \u201ctraditional\u201d authoritarian regime under Vladimir Putin.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the final analysis, the Cold War enemies, Soviets and Communist China, remain the biggest threat to a stable world (stable = without war).\u00a0\u00a0And the institutions set up to contend with them in the 1940\u2019s still have relevance today.\u00a0\u00a0And that\u2019s why the American military \u201cadventure\u201d in Iran is so troubling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The world today is facing a Russia bent on re-establishing empire.\u00a0\u00a0The war in Ukraine continues to drag on, and, in Cold War tradition, NATO and the US are providing the weapons and other materials to wage war against Russia.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s fought with Western materials, and Ukrainian blood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And China made it clear that their goal is the \u201creintegrate\u201d (read conquer) Taiwan.\u00a0\u00a0Not only should the US see the obvious moral imperative:\u00a0\u00a0Taiwan has a Constitutional Democracy, China is a Communist dictatorship.\u00a0\u00a0But there are huge economic consequences.\u00a0\u00a0Taiwan is the global center (90%) for the manufacture of computer chips.\u00a0\u00a0So in a \u201cshort-term\u201d world, China gaining control of the world supply of computer chips puts them in charge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the United States has made a huge military commitment to the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0Here\u2019s some simple \u201cmilitary math\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The US has eleven aircraft carrier groups, the key method used to project US power across the world.\u00a0\u00a0Four of those groups are in a maintenance cycle right now, and unavailable for use.\u00a0\u00a0Three are now stationed (or moving to) the seas around Iran.\u00a0\u00a0That leaves only four groups left to \u201cpatrol\u201d the world, including the areas between China and Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the United States depleted its stores of weapons in Iran.\u00a0\u00a0The Defense Department is facing shortages of \u201chigh-end\u201d missiles, like the ACACMS and THADD interceptors and Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. The US is even threatening to \u201cstrip\u201d current NATO allies of weapons supplies.\u00a0\u00a0Some of those were already committed to Ukraine, others are in reserve should Russia decides to expand their war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In short, the American \u201cexcursion\u201d to Iran bares other areas to possible attack.\u00a0\u00a0Russia, until now bogged down in Ukraine in\u00a0\u00a0World War I type trench warfare dominated by drone attacks, now sees openings not only there, but in Eastern Europe.\u00a0\u00a0And China can hear the \u201csucking sound\u201d of American military might being pulled to the Arabian Sea.\u00a0\u00a0Now what prevents them from making a military move on Taiwan?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the President of the United States threaten to withdraw from NATO, because the alliance isn\u2019t following the US in this Middle Eastern \u201cexcursion\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0No one asked the other NATO nations for support before the bombs were dropped.\u00a0\u00a0The NATO alliance Article Five (an attack on one NATO nation is considered an attack on all NATO nations) does not apply to wars of singular aggression.\u00a0\u00a0But last night, Trump intimated that the US might soon \u201cdeclare victory\u201d and leave, without opening the Straits of Hormuz to world old production.\u00a0As Trump said, the US has plenty of oil. (Now even more as the price of gas edges over four dollars a gallon).\u00a0\u00a0We don\u2019t need the 20% of world supply coming through the Straits, so, \u201cIt\u2019s not our problem\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State Colin Powell used to say that the world works with the \u201cPottery Barn\u201d rule:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cYou break it, you own it\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Donald Trump has taken America to war in Iran.\u00a0\u00a0The damage to the world economy is becoming more apparent, not just to Nations, but to everyday folks stopping at the BP station to fill up their tank.\u00a0\u00a0Trump \u201cbroke it\u201d, when it comes to Iran, and the Straits of Hormuz, and NATO.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0His speech last night gave no clue about whether he\u2019ll \u201cown it\u201d. Actually, he suggested that he might do what he did throughout his career as a businessman:\u00a0\u00a0make a deal, get the service, then not pay the bill.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The real price of US actions may be a change in the world\u2019s power structure, a change that doesn\u2019t favor democracy, or the United States of America.\u00a0\u00a0Like it or not, Trump owns that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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