In the history of the world, the United States has the most powerful military.\u00a0\u00a0Aside from nuclear weapons, literally capable of destroying the world (as we know it), the American military is, without doubt, the strongest.\u00a0\u00a0The United States has the greatest Air Force, with 13,000 aircraft.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s larger than the next five countries combined.\u00a0\u00a0And while technically China has more Naval ships, the US has eleven aircraft carriers, capable of projecting US military might anywhere and everywhere in the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The United States has the third largest Army in the world, but in terms of equipment and in money spent, the US Army is the most powerful.\u00a0\u00a0But all of this power, all of this money available (the US spent $11.3 Billion in the first week of the War on Iran), has led American planners to a massive flaw.\u00a0\u00a0When planners \u201cmatch\u201d the US military against Iran, it\u2019s clear that the Iranians cannot compete.\u00a0\u00a0Sure, with nuclear weapons, the United States could destroy Iran.\u00a0\u00a0But we are not, I hope, prepared to level a nation.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Certainly we are destroying the Iranian military capability.\u00a0\u00a0Their air force, mostly based on 1970\u2019s aircraft, is grounded.\u00a0Their missiles are still launched, but each launching puts the launch site in grave danger of destruction.\u00a0\u00a0And we are systematically destroying their Navy.\u00a0\u00a0An American submarine sunk an Iranian frigate by torpedo, the first time since World War II.\u00a0\u00a0Iran cannot and will not fight the United States on our terms.\u00a0\u00a0They know as well as we do, that they cannot win that battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We looked at the first weeks of this war, and it seemed like Iran was absolutely overwhelmed.\u00a0\u00a0Their military infrastructure was decimated.\u00a0\u00a0Their leadership was decapitated, with even the Ayatollah, their religious and political leader, killed.\u00a0\u00a0There seemed to be no way that Iran could even organize a resistance, much less fight back.\u00a0\u00a0The United States and Israel launched a massive and high tech attack, the \u201cmodel\u201d of a modern military action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran tried to attack back on those terms.\u00a0\u00a0They launched missiles against Israel and US bases in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0American soldiers were killed and wounded, as were Israelis.\u00a0\u00a0But those casualties were small compared to the thousands killed in Iran.\u00a0\u00a0And with total air superiority over Iran today, the US and Israelis attack planes are roaming the skies, looking for targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So Iran is fighting an asymmetric war, not a \u201ctit for tat\u201d war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They aren\u2019t attacking the US aircraft carriers.\u00a0\u00a0They are attacking the civilian oil tankers trying to squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz, where twenty percent of the world\u2019s oil transits from the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0Their attacks, launched by small boats or \u201csuicide drones\u201d or shoulder mounted rockets, have virtually stopped the world\u2019s oil trade there.\u00a0\u00a0Crude oil prices are near $100 a barrel, thirty percent higher than before the war began.\u00a0\u00a0The Iranians are striking American pocketbooks, with gas up fifteen percent at the pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the Middle East oil stoppage generates unintended consequences.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s made Russian energy more profitable, providing greater capital for Putin to continue to wage his war against Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0It has actually created more profit for Iran, who are able to get their oil out of the Strait.\u00a0\u00a0Since that oil is headed to China,\u00a0\u00a0stopping or destroying those oil tankers would create a perilous world situation with the second most powerful military in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran continues to lead the world in military drone technology (along with Ukraine).\u00a0\u00a0Drones are small, difficult to detect, easily launched and essentially disposable.\u00a0\u00a0Drone attacks continue in the Middle East, still in such numbers that even if 90% of the drones are stopped, the 10% remaining can cause serious damage.\u00a0\u00a0And Iran isn\u2019t necessarily targeting military bases, they are reaching out to diplomatic facilities, businesses, and even the US CIA station in Saudi Arabia.\u00a0\u00a0(Russia, anxious to have this war continue, is rumored to be providing targeting intelligence to the Iranians).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran has more asymmetric actions available.\u00a0\u00a0Iran is the world center for what we would call terrorist activities.\u00a0\u00a0They sponsor several terrorist groups aimed at Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah.\u00a0\u00a0And undoubtedly, Iran has operatives in the United States, awaiting instruction to attack \u201csoft targets\u201d like urban transportation, sporting events, St. Patrick\u2019s Day parades and the like.\u00a0\u00a0Add that, to the massive turnover in the US agencies responsible for protecting the \u201chomeland\u201d, the FBI, and Homeland Security:\u00a0\u00a0the US may be particularly vulnerable to these kinds of attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran also is capable of launching cyber-attacks, both against public and private agencies.\u00a0\u00a0Already the medical device company Stryker, had its communications cut by a probable Iranian action.\u00a0\u00a0How vulnerable is our infrastructure to similar attacks, which could disrupt domestic life here in the United States?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iran won\u2019t \u201cwin\u201d a war with the United States.\u00a0\u00a0But we can expect that they won\u2019t give in either, and they won\u2019t fight \u201cfair\u201d in US terms.\u00a0\u00a0We can expect that they will use all of the tools at their disposal.\u00a0\u00a0And the targets are likely to be here in the US, rather than in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"