One strategy in modern nuclear war-making theory is to \u201cdecapitate\u201d the enemy.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s simple:\u00a0\u00a0kill all the leaders.\u00a0\u00a0Without leadership, the \u201cenemy\u201d is unable to effectively respond to ongoing attacks, or other future military actions.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s a \u201cbinary\u201d approach to warfare:\u00a0\u00a0we attack, they die:\u00a0\u00a0so we win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The problem in nuclear warfare is that the major powers also operated on a \u201cfail-safe\u201d system.\u00a0\u00a0Once an attack begins, the \u201cdefault\u201d is to continue responding.\u00a0\u00a0Even if all of the leadership is killed, and there is no one giving orders on the secure communication channels, the \u201cfail-safe\u201d order is to launch: every missile, every bomber, every submarine.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you kill off the leaders, there\u2019s no one to talk to; no way to \u201cnegotiate\u201d an end.\u00a0\u00a0It just the \u201cfail-safe\u201d systems, continuing the war until exhausted.\u00a0\u00a0(There\u2019s a great old black and white movie called \u201cFail Safe\u201d, about an accidental US attack on the Soviet Union.\u00a0\u00a0It stars Henry Fonda, Larry Hagman, Walter Matthau and even has a place for Dom DeLuise. The dark message of Fail Safe automation is clear.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s something to think about in the coming AI age<\/em>).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But in non-nuclear warfare, the United States has engaged in \u201cdecapitation\u201d efforts with mixed results.\u00a0\u00a0We toppled, found, and executed Iraq\u2019s Saddam Hussein, hoping to end his constant irritation in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0But with Hussein\u2019s iron rule gone, the diverse religious, regional and ethnic groups in Iraq all struggled for power.\u00a0\u00a0No one group could take charge, even after democratic elections.\u00a0\u00a0The end result was the birth of the extreme Islamic group ISIS, which raged through Iraq and other countries, killing thousands and threatening Middle East stability.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The United States, hoped for an exit strategy from Iraq, but was required to surge ground troops back into the region.\u00a0\u00a0Some of the ugliest fighting of the Iraq war was against ISIS, a group that was a direct result of American action in taking down the Hussein regime.\u00a0\u00a0And the loss of a strong Iraq, meant that Iran was able to become the major revolutionary influence in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0Hussein balanced out the Ayatollahs; but with him gone, there was no one to prevent Iran\u2019s growing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US also did the same thing in Afghanistan.\u00a0\u00a0We decapitated the Taliban regime in 2002, and tried to hold democratic elections in the region.\u00a0\u00a0Americans were proud of the \u201cpurple thumbs\u201d of Afghans demonstrating their votes.\u00a0\u00a0But ultimately, the elected leaders were unable to consolidate the governance of the country, and the Taliban emerged again as the one cohesive force.\u00a0\u00a0The only way to prevent their takeover was to keep thousands of US troops in country. We stayed for twenty years.\u00a0\u00a0When we left, it took almost no time at all for the Taliban to \u201ccome back\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Trump Administration tried a slightly different tactic in Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0Instead of a \u201cfull\u201d decapitation of the government, taking down the kleptocratic regime in whole, the US just kidnapped the President and his wife.\u00a0\u00a0We left the government intact, with the existing Vice President moving into the leading role.\u00a0\u00a0There were alternative choices:\u00a0\u00a0multiple Venezuelan leaders who were in favor of a real democracy, some in jail, some in the United States.\u00a0\u00a0Mar\u00eda Corina Machado\u00a0was an obvious choice.\u00a0\u00a0She just won the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Trump didn\u2019t want a democracy, with all of the \u201cdangers\u201d that were faced in Iraq and Afghanistan.\u00a0\u00a0So he left the \u201cfoxes in charge of the chicken coop\u201d, the kleptocrats still in power.\u00a0\u00a0He just threatened them with more \u201ckidnappings\u201d, unless they did what he wanted.\u00a0\u00a0If it sounds like some kind of criminal enterprise, a bigger \u201cgang\u201d moving in on a smaller one; it is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So the United States waged war on Iran this weekend.\u00a0\u00a0We managed to \u201cdecapitate\u201d the leadership, killing the religious leader and Head of State,\u00a0Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and much of his governing group.\u00a0\u00a0Why did we do this?\u00a0\u00a0First, it\u2019s clear that there was no \u201cproximate cause\u201d, no immediate threat from Iran that needed to be nullified.\u00a0\u00a0Khamenei did not have a nuclear bomb ready to go, nor did he even seem to be trying to rebuild from earlier attacks this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here’s what we know today, three days after this Iran War was launched by US forces.\u00a0\u00a0The prime reason to attack was that we found out that the majority of the leadership of Iran was meeting in one place, vulnerable to the kind of massive assaults the US and Israel could launch.\u00a0\u00a0And, for that particular goal, decapitation, it worked, perhaps beyond even what the military planners could hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s \u201chappy talk\u201d about the Iranian people rising up, to take over their theocratic government and develop a more reasonable democracy.\u00a0\u00a0But the United States has made it clear:\u00a0\u00a0the US might destroy the leadership, but we are NOT putting \u201cboots on the ground\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0As Trump said to the Iranian people:\u00a0\u00a0\u201c\u2026the rest will be up to you\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So now we wait to see, what\u2019s the \u201cFail Safe\u201d of the Iranian government?\u00a0\u00a0Will the people really rise up, or will the remaining powers, particularly the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continue the brutal repression of dissent we\u2019ve seen over the past few months?\u00a0\u00a0There\u2019s already a committee chosen to pick the next Ayatollah, now with the added \u201cpower\u201d of his predecessor, martyred by the \u201cGreat Satan\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not Venezuela.\u00a0\u00a0And it probably isn\u2019t Iraq either.\u00a0\u00a0We\u2019ve bombed Iran, something almost every President since Jimmy Carter have \u201clusted in their heart\u201d to do.\u00a0\u00a0But we\u2019ve also unleashed the Fail Safe response; missiles are falling on Israel and Dubai, and Saudi Arabia.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The United States internal security forces are on full alert for some kind of terrorist attack.\u00a0\u00a0That might already have occurred in Texas.\u00a0\u00a0And we have not toppled the theocracy, in the way we toppled Hussein and his statue in Baghdad.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s not that simple in Iran in 2026. Really, it wasn\u2019t that simple in Iraq back in 2003 either. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Mixed Results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Decapitation Lite<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Bomb Iran<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Happy Talk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n