{"id":839,"date":"2018-05-09T09:52:44","date_gmt":"2018-05-09T13:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=839"},"modified":"2018-05-09T09:52:44","modified_gmt":"2018-05-09T13:52:44","slug":"bomb-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/05\/09\/bomb-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Bomb Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bomb Iran<\/p>\n

Three years ago, John Bolton, now President Trump\u2019s National Security Advisor, authored a New York Times Op-Ed with the title: \u201cTo Stop Iran\u2019s Bomb, Bomb Iran<\/a>.\u201d\u00a0 In it he made a case for using military force against an Iranian nuclear program.\u00a0 He stated:<\/p>\n

An attack need not destroy all of Iran\u2019s nuclear infrastructure, but by breaking key links in the nuclear-fuel cycle, it could set back its program by three to five years. The United States could do a thorough job of destruction, but Israel alone can do what\u2019s necessary. Such action should be combined with vigorous American support for Iran\u2019s opposition, aimed at regime change in Tehran.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Yesterday, Ambassador Bolton got his first big success in the Trump Administration as the President withdrew the United States from the \u201cIran Nuclear Deal.\u201d {While the deal is not a treaty, it is a technical agreement that the United States would remove sanctions on Iran in return for Iran stopping nuclear weapons development and allowing inspections. Rather than Bolton\u2019s three to five-year set-back, it froze nuclear development with a ten year window. \u00a0The US withdrawal reneges on the agreement, and re-imposes sanctions.<\/em>}<\/p>\n

The Iran deal was the signature foreign policy success for the Obama Administration (and therefore a key target for Trump) and was negotiated with multi-lateral cooperation by many nations; the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China among them.\u00a0Critically, it did NOT address Iranian support of terrorism in the Middle East, nor did it deal with Iranian territorial aspirations in Iraq.\u00a0 It fixed on what was considered the most important issue:\u00a0 preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.\u00a0 It provided a ten-year window for further negotiations, and continual inspections even after the agreement expired.<\/p>\n

But President Trump changed that yesterday.\u00a0 And while the other nations who were part of the deal vow to continue, the United States sanctions will make it near impossible for them to afford the economic cost.\u00a0 So the Iran nuclear deal is probably over, and we are looking at a different Middle East today than we did yesterday.<\/p>\n

The US resumption of sanctions will certainly have widespread consequences.\u00a0 Internally, US businesses with open contracts in Iran (notably Boeing) will be cut off.\u00a0 Internationally, sanctions will force our allies to choose between dealing with Iran or dealing with us.\u00a0 Perhaps they will succumb to US pressure, or, just as the Chinese responded to new tariffs, they will simply choose to find other supplies.\u00a0 China is buying Mexican soybeans, leaving US farmers out.<\/p>\n

It is likely that Iran will begin to work on nuclear weapons, and will achieve nuclear \u201cbreakout\u201d within a couple of years.\u00a0 John Bolton and friends will then say, \u201cI told you so\u201d to their critics, though their actions opened the door to Iran\u2019s effort.\u00a0\u00a0 Israel, and other Middle East powers, notably Saudi Arabia, will feel the military necessity to try to stop the Iranians, and we will see Bolton\u2019s bombs falling soon.\u00a0 The Middle East will be drawn to an all-consuming conflict, one that will inexorably draw United States to war.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not only supports Trump\u2019s decision, but was complicit in releasing \u201cnew information\u201d (though it was known for years) to back Trump\u2019s claim that the Iranians were cheating.\u00a0 US officials, including Mattis at Defense and Pompeo at State, said that Iran was not. \u00a0Netanyahu sees Iran as the ultimate threat to Israel\u2019s existence, and is more than willing to take military action to stop Iran\u2019s nuclear progress.\u00a0 While Israel can bomb alone, to get more comprehensive change they would require US assistance. Netanyahu would, along with Bolton, like to see regime change in Iran, in order to protect Israel\u2019s long-term interests.\u00a0However, the US has had little luck with regime change:\u00a0 the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan are prime examples of good intentions gone wrong.<\/p>\n

Should this happen, a regional war might not be the only consequence.\u00a0 War in the Middle East would inevitably cause an energy crisis in the rest of the world, with petroleum supplies threatened and prices skyrocketing.\u00a0And the other \u201cmajor powers\u201d of the world would maneuver to isolate the United States.\u00a0 This might well put Russia and China on the Iranian side (Russia is cooperating with Iran now in Syria and China has helped Iranian missile technology in the past) creating a threat of escalation to a world war.<\/p>\n

But the United States, who yesterday had the choice of using the next few years to negotiate a more comprehensive deal with Iran, now is left out.\u00a0 President Trump, whose reputation is based on being the \u201cgreat negotiator,\u201d is gambling that the world will be forced to accept US sanctions, and will be able to drive Iran back to the table for a \u201cbetter\u201d deal.\u00a0 The US, who two years ago was the world leader in striving for peace, has now lit the fuse to war, and is daring the world to respond.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bomb Iran Three years ago, John Bolton, now President Trump\u2019s National Security Advisor, authored a New York Times Op-Ed with the title: \u201cTo Stop Iran\u2019s Bomb, Bomb Iran.\u201d\u00a0 In it he made a case for using military force against an Iranian nuclear program.\u00a0 He stated: An attack need not destroy all of Iran\u2019s nuclear infrastructure, … Continue reading “Bomb Iran”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nBomb Iran : Our America - 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