The Button Strategy<\/p>\n
The chants in Michigan went on for a while \u2013 \u201cNOBEL, NOBEL, NOBEL!\u201d\u00a0 President Trump\u2019s modest answer, \u201cI\u2019m just doing my job.\u201d<\/p>\n
Will Donald Trump be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his actions in North Korea?\u00a0 Probably not, but it\u2019s hard not to give him some credit for the changes in Kim Jong-Un\u2019s behavior.\u00a0 Did Trump\u2019s strategy, including the \u201cRocket Man\u201d and \u201cBigger Button\u201d tweets, push Kim to the negotiating table?<\/p>\n
It might have.<\/p>\n
When a madman tries to burn your neighborhood, with all of the homes threatened; the fact you don\u2019t like you neighbor won\u2019t stop you from working together to stop the madman.\u00a0 South Korean President Moon Jae-in was well aware of the ultimate truth about the next Korean war.\u00a0 The battles would be fought in the most highly populated parts of his country, millions of people would be killed, and the nation that has been an economic and political success story since 1953 would be utterly devastated.<\/p>\n
Kim Jong-Un of North Korea is also aware of what a war with the United States would cause.\u00a0 While there is much less economic infrastructure in North Korea to destroy and Kim is less concerned about civilian casualties, if the US waged war one of the primary goals would be the end of the Kim regime.\u00a0 Look at Saddam Hussein in Iraq or Gaddafi in Libya to see Kim\u2019s prospective fate.<\/p>\n
So while Moon and Kim are neighbors who don\u2019t like each other, Trump served as the raging madman threatening them both.\u00a0 Perhaps this pushed them both to the negotiating table.\u00a0 But there are alternative reasons the two might have reached across the border.<\/p>\n
Kim and North Korea represent the ultimate threat to South Korea.\u00a0 President Moon has followed a well thought out strategy, first engaging Kim in participating in the Olympic Winter Games, then pursuing greater contacts culminating in their meeting at the \u201cPeace House\u201d on the demilitarized zone.\u00a0If South and North Korea can develop economic commitments, they are less likely to try to destroy each other.<\/p>\n
Kim has also followed a strategy, working to build a nuclear arsenal, now complete; and developing missile delivery systems that can threaten beyond the region to the world.\u00a0He worked to make himself, \u201ca member of the nuclear club\u201d (US, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan.)\u00a0Now he (and therefore his country) is recognized as a major world player, and gets to meet man-to-man with the President of the United States.<\/p>\n
It was easy for Kim to \u201cgive up\u201d nuclear and missile testing:\u00a0 the program is ready to go, \u201coperational,\u201d and there is no longer a need.\u00a0He got what he wanted, now he wants to negotiate for economic benefits as an \u201cequal.\u201d\u00a0 President Trump has accepted that equal standing, and is expected to agree to meet with Kim on Kim\u2019s \u201cturf,\u201d back at the Demilitarized Zone.<\/p>\n
Negotiation is better than war.\u00a0 So whatever the mechanisms that brought North Korea to the table, it beats dropping missiles on Seoul, Tokyo, San Francisco, or Pyongyang.\u00a0 Whether this was some well thought out strategy by Trump or simply the innate knowledge of one bully for another, the \u201cmadman US President\u201d plan deserves credit for getting there.<\/p>\n
What happens next is questionable.\u00a0 The United States has negotiated with North Korea several times, each time the North has promised to stop nuclear progress.\u00a0 They simply lied, and continued to build and develop their program.\u00a0 Now that Kim has the \u201cbomb\u201d and a delivery system, it\u2019s unlikely he\u2019ll give them up for anything.\u00a0 The United States is trying to negotiate for a \u201cdenuclearized\u201d Korean peninsula.\u00a0 It\u2019s difficult to see a \u201ccarrot\u201d that they can offer North Korea to give up their bombs.\u00a0And of course, \u201cthe stick\u201d would mean nuclear war.<\/p>\n
And South Korea (not given a seat at the table with Kim and Trump yet) has the world\u2019s fourteenth strongest economy. Much as West German success contrasted with East German privation, South Korea is thriving as North Koreans continue to literally starve.\u00a0The South has a lot to offer the North.<\/p>\n
There is a possibility for progress, though it may only come at the cost of accepting a nuclear North Korea.\u00a0 South Korea may be willing to take that chance, but it\u2019s unlikely the Trump Administration will accept any outcome short of nuclear neutering.<\/p>\n
So we are a long way from the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0 Likely, we are closer to nuclear war.<\/p>\n
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