Credit where credit is due.\u00a0\u00a0If the \u201cTwenty Point\u201d Plan of the Trump Administration comes to fruition and the current War in Gaza ends, then President Trump deserves credit.\u00a0\u00a0Maybe he even deserves his ultimate desire, the Nobel Peace Prize.\u00a0\u00a0But for those, like the \u201cMorning Joe voices\u201d of MSNBC<\/em> who echo Trump by saying this is the \u201cbiggest negotiation ever\u201d, I say this:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIt ain\u2019t over \u2018til it\u2019s over\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Let\u2019s be clear:\u00a0\u00a0Gaza has been destroyed.\u00a0\u00a0Satellite surveys estimate that 80% of the habitable buildings are leveled or damaged.\u00a0\u00a0More than 50,000 civilians (not Hamas soldiers) are dead. Starvation is rampant, and with winter coming on, Gaza will be a humanitarian disaster, even if \u201cthe deal\u201d is consummated this week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The last \u201cprotected\u201d part of Gaza are the remaining Hamas forces.\u00a0\u00a0While the surface of Gaza looks like an old black and white photo of Berlin at the end of World War II, underneath is a tunnel system longer than the New York and London subways combined.\u00a0\u00a0Current estimates are that only 40% of those have been destroyed.\u00a0Where the tunnels remain, so does Hamas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The founding principle of Israel was summed up in the term, \u201cNever Forget\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0What was meant to refer to the Holocaust, is now extended to the October 7th<\/sup>\u00a0Hamas attack two years ago.\u00a0\u00a0Added to that should be the phrase \u201cNever Forgive\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The Netanyahu government demands an unlimited amount of Palestinian blood in retribution.\u00a0\u00a0And the politics of Israel are stark:\u00a0\u00a0to remain in power, Netanyahu MUST \u201cwin the war\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Anything less will result in his removal from the Prime Minister\u2019s office, and apportionment of blame for the failures that allowed the October 7th<\/sup>\u00a0attack to happen in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Winning for Israel originally was the total destruction of Hamas.\u00a0\u00a0But that included, as a \u201csidebar\u201d, the return of the hostages.\u00a0\u00a0Now, two years after they were taken that \u201cbutcher\u2019s bill\u201d remains.\u00a0\u00a0257 were taken hostage originally.\u00a0\u00a0148 have been released or rescued, alive.\u00a0\u00a075 were killed in captivity (58 of those bodies were repatriated).\u00a0\u00a0Three more were killed by \u201cfriendly fire\u201d as they tried to escape in Gaza.\u00a0\u00a0That leaves 48 still held: 25 presumed dead, and 23 thought to be still alive after more than two years of captivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what are the levers of power?\u00a0\u00a0Who is the Trump Administration able to \u201cpush\u201d to reach some kind of agreement between these \u201cblood enemies\u201d?\u00a0\u00a0Here\u2019s what I see as\u00a0\u00a0leverage that might end the bloodshed, at least for a while.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n The most popular politician in Israel isn\u2019t Benjamin Netanyahu, or even his political opposition leader, Yair Lapid.\u00a0\u00a0The leader with the most leverage in Israel is Donald Trump, the President of the United States.\u00a0\u00a0Israelis see Trump as the only person in the world that can bring an end to the Gaza War in a \u201cpro-Israel\u201d manner.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And that makes the internal Israeli politics similar to the politics of the Republican Party in the United States.\u00a0\u00a0The critical issue going into the next Israeli election may be Trump\u2019s support, just like here in the Ohio\u2019s statewide primaries in 2026.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n If Trump stands with Netanyahu, then the current Prime Minister might survive the inevitable blowback from the October 7th<\/sup>\u00a0attack.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cBebe\u201d has pushed off elections \u201cdue to war\u201d for two years.\u00a0\u00a0Now he\u2019s up against a deadline in October of 2026.\u00a0\u00a0And while Netanyahu\u2019s coalition contains hard-right parties that want nothing to do with a \u201cpeace plan\u201d, Trump\u2019s influence may be strong enough to overcome their pressure as well.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Netanyahu needs Trump to stay in office, and Trump knows it.\u00a0\u00a0As we see in American internal politics, that symbiotic relationship makes politicians do things we\u2019d never thought possible.\u00a0\u00a0Strong Ukrainian supporters grow silent.\u00a0\u00a0Powerful state\u2019s right advocates now support Federal government intervention in Democratic cities.\u00a0\u00a0Those who claimed that the Justice Department persecuted Republicans, are gleeful as that same Department prosecutes Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0All of that is under the leverage of Trump, who can end a primary campaign with a single \u201ctweet\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So will Netanyahu stand up to his right-wing supporters to say, \u201c80% destruction, 50,000 Palestinian lives is enough\u201d?\u00a0\u00a0He can only do it with Trump behind him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And what leverages Hamas?\u00a0\u00a0Simple survival is the quick answer.\u00a0\u00a0They face absolute destruction, and the Iranian help they\u2019ve depended on for decades is now been (temporarily) disrupted by the Israeli and US bombing campaigns.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The other Islamic Nations surrounding Israel; Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan; want the war to end.\u00a0\u00a0They want nothing to do with the Palestinians themselves, a \u201cheadache\u201d they tried to avoid for nearly a century.\u00a0\u00a0But war is disruptive, and threatens to drag them into direct conflict with Israel.\u00a0\u00a0It already has in Lebanon and Syria.\u00a0\u00a0So they are supportive of peace, but have little leverage on Hamas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Qatar has leverage.\u00a0\u00a0They have they served as the \u201csafe space\u201d for the Hamas political wing to emerge in public.\u00a0\u00a0And, with tacit Israeli acceptance, Qatar put almost $2 Billion into Gaza, including some direct support for Hamas itself.\u00a0\u00a0Israel signaled its current displeasure with Qatar by launching an attack on Hamas ceasefire negotiators there last month.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0President Trump responded by guaranteeing Qatar\u2019s safety (an almost \u201cArticle Five\u201d statement, an attack on Qatar is an attack on the US).\u00a0\u00a0He directly repudiated Israeli actions.\u00a0\u00a0It was that statement that began the serious \u201cleverage campaign\u201d on Netanyahu, and led to this final agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the background are the other Islamic Middle Eastern states, particularly Saudi Arabia.\u00a0\u00a0And Trump has used his direct representative to Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS), the leader of Saudi, to pressure the deal on a region-wide basis.\u00a0\u00a0Trump\u2019s son-in-law, Jared Kushner is unique.\u00a0\u00a0He has a personal friendship with MBS, and he\u2019s also the godson of Netanyahu.\u00a0\u00a0It everything ends up being personal, then Trump has the \u201cperson\u201d to push the parties to agree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is an agreement \u2013 tentatively.\u00a0\u00a0There are hostages to be released, both on Hama\u2019s part (the survivors and the dead) and by Israel (1200 prisoners).\u00a0\u00a0Israel must move its military into defensive positions, and stop combat operations in Gaza.\u00a0\u00a0Hamas must give up weapons.\u00a0\u00a0And there\u2019s a great deal of \u201cterritory\u201d left undecided \u2013 most importantly those tunnels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s a start.\u00a0\u00a0Hopefully humanitarian aid can immediately flow into Gaza, to stave off starvation, and begin to bring care and shelter to the million or so Palestinians still there.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\nButcher\u2019s Bill<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Who Does He Stand For?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hamas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
End of the Beginning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n