{"id":7927,"date":"2025-06-20T09:40:23","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=7927"},"modified":"2025-06-20T09:40:25","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T13:40:25","slug":"the-nuclear-boogeyman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2025\/06\/20\/the-nuclear-boogeyman\/","title":{"rendered":"The Nuclear Boogeyman"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">On the Verge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">We are on the verge of another ugly Middle Eastern war \u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not like we don\u2019t know it:\u00a0\u00a0after twenty years in Afghanistan, ten years in Iraq, and a decade before that entangled in Middle Eastern military adventures after the Persian Gulf War, we\u2019ve \u201cbeen there, done that\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, we never really left.\u00a0\u00a0There are still US bases in Turkiye, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.\u00a0\u00a0And there is a US military \u201cpresence\u201d (troops) in Iraq, Syria, Cyprus, and the Sinai (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/6\/12\/mapping-us-troops-and-military-bases-in-the-middle-east\">Al Jazeera<\/a>). (If you are wondering where we \u201caren\u2019t\u201d, the answer is:\u00a0\u00a0Iran, Yemen and Israel.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The United States is already engaged in a \u201cshooting\u00a0\u00a0war\u201d in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0American forces are sparring with the Houthi rebels (supported by Iran) in Yemen, over access to the Red Sea.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth bragged about the attacks launched on the Houthis in the infamous \u201cSignal Chats\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0While millions of dollars of munitions were used against them, it doesn\u2019t seem to have done much damage to their attack capacity.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">There is an older lesson to be re-learned here.\u00a0\u00a0The US dropped more bombs in Vietnam than both sides used in World War II, but the North Vietnamese simply adapted their war-fighting capacity to the bombing.\u00a0\u00a0It didn\u2019t work in Vietnam, and it doesn\u2019t work in Yemen either.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Proliferation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">We are hearing that old \u201cnuclear boogeyman\u201d of the twentieth century raise its ugly head again.\u00a0\u00a0Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is warning of Iran getting a nuclear weapon.\u00a0\u00a0The world, he says, will be a different and more dangerous place, if Iran gets \u201cthe bomb\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The United States has a policy against \u201cnuclear proliferation\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0We\u2019ve done a great deal to keep the invention of the Los Alamos Labs in New Mexico during World War II from becoming a \u201ccommon weapon\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Today the nuclear \u201cclub\u201d is still limited.\u00a0\u00a0The United States, Russia and China are the main \u201cmembers\u201d; each with thousands of nuclear war heads on missiles and in \u201cbomb\u201d form.\u00a0\u00a0The United Kingdom and France also have smaller nuclear arsenals. Then there are the nations that weren\u2019t \u201csupposed\u201d to get the bomb:\u00a0\u00a0India, Pakistan, and North Korea.\u00a0\u00a0And, of course, there\u2019s Israel, who refuses to acknowledge they have nuclear weapons, even though the whole world knows it\u2019s true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Two nations had nuclear weapons, and actually gave them up.\u00a0\u00a0Ukraine had a large arsenal of weapons when the Soviet Union dissolved, but agreed to give them up in return for assurances from the United States and Russia that their borders would be honored. We see how that worked out for them.\u00a0\u00a0And South Africa developed nuclear weapons (and helped Israel do the same) but dismantled them at the end of the Apartheid era in the mid 1990\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Enrichment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Just to be clear, Iran can have a nuclear weapon if they want one.\u00a0\u00a0The key to having working nuclear bombs is to have uranium enriched to 90%.\u00a0\u00a0Currently, Iran has lots of uranium, but its only at the 60% level.\u00a0\u00a0It would take\u00a0\u00a0further refinement to get it bomb-ready, a simple and straight-forward process.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201crefinery\u201d is the facility that the US is threatening to target with the \u201cBunker Buster\u201d bomb.\u00a0\u00a0What Iran does not have is a proven delivery system, missiles that could carry an effective nuclear warhead.\u00a0\u00a0That will take more time and experimentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">India developed an atomic bomb in 1974. Pakistan, India\u2019s arch-enemy, started a crash program to match them.\u00a0\u00a0It took twenty-four years, but ultimately Pakistan got \u201cthe bomb\u201d as well.\u00a0\u00a0So when Israel developed nuclear weapons in 1968, it\u2019s enemies in the Middle East also felt the need to \u201ccatch-up\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Iraq and Iran both began nuclear development projects.\u00a0\u00a0The United States has done everything possible to prevent either from actualizing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hussein and the Bomb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">After the attack on America on 9-11 in 2001, the United States launched a war in Afghanistan.\u00a0\u00a0It was clear that Al Qaeda, the attackers, were headquartered there.\u00a0\u00a0It was over a year later that America launched the invasion of Iraq, in March of 2003.\u00a0\u00a0Why Iraq?\u00a0\u00a0Because, as President Bush and General Powell and the rest of the US Government intelligence establishment told us, Iraq was building a nuclear weapon.\u00a0\u00a0We could not tolerate the idea of Saddam Hussein, the brutal dictator of Iraq, with \u201cthe bomb\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">There were lots of speeches about \u201cyellow cake\u201d from Nigeria, and aluminum rods and centrifuges.\u00a0\u00a0Colin Powell made the US case to the United Nations, echoing Adlai Stevenson\u2019s presentation during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 \u00a0\u00a0It was a compelling case, and the Use of Force resolution passed the United States Senate 77 to 23, and the House 296 to 133.\u00a0\u00a0We went to war.\u00a0\u00a0And we were wrong.\u00a0\u00a0We turned Iraq literally upside down, but there were no nuclear bombs.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Decapitation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">What we did discover was that \u201cdecapitation\u201d, removing the leadership of a nation, does not necessarily mean the replacement will be \u201cbetter\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, the US created a power vacuum in the Middle East, that expanded the power of Iran, and created a whole new evil force, ISIS.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">So here we are again.\u00a0\u00a0Trump is no George Bush, and JD Vance isn\u2019t Dick Cheney.\u00a0\u00a0And certainly the whole intelligence community is riddled with fear of the MAGA world.\u00a0\u00a0No one here has made the \u201ccase\u201d that Iran is on the verge of nuclear \u201cclubdom\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Trump is basing his decision on Israeli intelligence, and his own \u201cgut\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">And, would a nuclear Iran be so terrible, worse than a nuclear North Korea?\u00a0\u00a0We (Americans of all political sides) let Kim Jong-Un build his nuclear force, and test out all sorts of delivery systems.\u00a0\u00a0But little was done to stop him, and the world hasn\u2019t ended, yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">What we can see from experience is this:\u00a0\u00a0starting a war with Iran might stop them from \u201cgoing nuclear\u201d, but it might open another \u201cPandora\u2019s Box\u201d of extremism in the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cNation-building\u201d didn\u2019t work in Afghanistan or Iraq.\u00a0\u00a0There\u2019s really no reason to believe it would work in Iran either.\u00a0\u00a0But here we are, on the same well-travelled path, using the threat of \u201cnuclear devastation\u201d to justify &#8220;doing Iraq&#8221; all over again.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">We all know the old saying:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cThose who ignore history are doomed to repeat it\u201d.   We&#8217;ve been there \u2013 done that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the Verge We are on the verge of another ugly Middle Eastern war \u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not like we don\u2019t know it:\u00a0\u00a0after twenty years in Afghanistan, ten years in Iraq, and a decade before that entangled in Middle Eastern military adventures after the Persian Gulf War, we\u2019ve \u201cbeen there, done that\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, we never really left.\u00a0\u00a0There &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2025\/06\/20\/the-nuclear-boogeyman\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Nuclear Boogeyman&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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After forty years of teaching and coaching track and cross country, I've finally retired!!! 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