On the Cusp<\/p>\n
We are on the cusp of the crisis.\u00a0 The forces that have been investigating Donald Trump are converging.\u00a0 Here are the facts.<\/p>\n
Monday, the Federal prosecutors in Manhattan executed a search warrant on the homes and office of Michael Cohen, the personal attorney and \u201cfixer\u201d for President Donald Trump.\u00a0 The President\u2019s response was rage.\u00a0 Wednesday night it was reported that some of the information seized included recordings of Cohen\u2019s conversations.\u00a0 These MAY include conversations about paying for silence about Trump\u2019s behavior, and perhaps even conversations with Trump himself.<\/p>\n
The searches set off a firestorm of Fox News fueled debate. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz, and hired\/not hired former US Attorney Joe DiGenova have called for the firing of Special Counsel Mueller and Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein.\u00a0 Fox personality Sean Hannity compared the Special Counsel\u2019s office to a Mafia family; DiGenova called former FBI Director James Comey a dirty cop.\u00a0 Gingrich compared Mueller to the Gestopo.<\/p>\n
Tuesday, current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan decided not to run for his Congressional seat.\u00a0 Ryan, whose voice has been continually absent from the Trump debate, is now a lame duck, and the battle begins in the Republican House caucus for the spoils of leadership.\u00a0 They are focusing on their internal issues, and unlikely to take up the burden of a Constitutional crisis.<\/p>\n
Wednesday, former FBI Director James Comey\u2019s book was \u201cleaked\u201d out a week prior to publication.\u00a0Comey compared the Trump organization to an organized crime family, La Cosa Nostra, and claimed that the President\u2019s biggest concern about Russian involvement in the 2016 election was whether there was any proof of Trump\u2019s actions with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel.<\/p>\n
The negotiations between the Special Counsel\u2019s office and President Trump\u2019s attorneys over testimony have fallen apart:\u00a0 there will be no voluntary questioning.\u00a0 Mueller will have to decide whether to proceed on with his investigation without Trump\u2019s testimony, or try to force Trump\u2019s answers by issuing a grand jury subpoena.\u00a0 Should he compel testimony through subpoena a court battle is sure to ensue.\u00a0 Trump could simply refuse to go:\u00a0 US Marshals are not likely to fight off the Secret Service to force Trump into court.<\/p>\n
If Trump does go to court, he may well invoke the Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination.\u00a0What a few months ago seemed unthinkable, a President taking the Fifth, now seems a plausible solution.\u00a0 Undoubtedly the Fox News propaganda machine would back the move as a reasonable response to an \u201cunfair and Gestopo-like\u201d investigation.<\/p>\n
And late Wednesday night, the Trump White House leaked the upcoming Presidential pardon of Scooter Libby.\u00a0Libby was Vice President Cheney\u2019s Chief of Staff, convicted of obstructing justice and lying to the FBI.\u00a0It is no coincidence that those charges are similar to ones faced by Mike Flynn and others from the Trump White House.\u00a0 It is a not so subtle signal:\u00a0 keep your mouth shut and maybe you too can get a Presidential \u201cget out of jail free card.\u201d<\/p>\n
And finally, word has come out that the Mueller Investigation is preparing to release its first (of several) report on the conduct of the President.\u00a0 This is in lieu of actually indicting a sitting President, an action that may or may not be Constitutional, but would violate current Department of Justice policy.\u00a0 This first one would highlight the President\u2019s actions in obstructing justice, and could serve as potential impeachment charges.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s Thursday morning.\u00a0Here\u2019s what may happen next.<\/p>\n
The next step in the Mueller investigation will be into Trump\u2019s inner circle.\u00a0 Michael Cohen was the first.\u00a0 Ivanka, Jared Kushner and Donald Jr are up next.\u00a0 While Trump already made it clear that he will throw Cohen to the wolves by stating, \u201cI don\u2019t know anything about the Stormy Daniels contract\u201d on Air Force One, his children might, and I do mean might, be a different matter.<\/p>\n
How can Trump stop the investigation?\u00a0 He could try to directly fire Robert Mueller, an action of dubious Constitutionality.\u00a0This would cause a court battle, culminating in the Supreme Court, and likely would result in Mueller remaining in office.\u00a0 But it would take time, time to continue to build the Fox News propaganda.<\/p>\n
He could fire Attorney General Jeff Sessions and replace him. The replacement would not be recused from the Russia investigation, and could take direct charge of Mueller.\u00a0 The new Attorney General could then stall, restrict, or fire Mueller.\u00a0 This is the probable reason why EPA Director Scott Pruitt is allowed to remain in office despite his continual corrupt activity.\u00a0 Pruitt, former Attorney General of Oklahoma, was Senate confirmed for the EPA, and could be placed in the Attorney General\u2019s job as a temporary appointment without needing additional confirmation.<\/p>\n
Trump could order the Department of Justice to rescind the Special Counsel regulations, simply wiping the Mueller investigation from existence.\u00a0 This could trigger a Congressional action to protect Mueller, though House Republicans are still firmly behind the President.\u00a0 Mueller could also simply turn the investigation over to others in the Department.<\/p>\n
Or, he could fire Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, ostensibly because he signed off on the Cohen search warrants.\u00a0 Trump would move to the next in line who could throttle or fire Mueller.\u00a0 The problem:\u00a0 this could cause a \u201cSaturday Night Massacre\u201d scenario reminiscent of Nixon, as those in line for the job refuse to act against Mueller and perhaps it could trigger Congressional action to protect Mueller.<\/p>\n
Or President Trump could do nothing, allowing the investigation to proceed.\u00a0 He could allow indictments to be handed down against Cohen, and ultimately his children.\u00a0 He could \u201cdangle\u201d pardons to keep everyone in line.\u00a0 And he can depend on the Congress to continue to ignore his behavior.<\/p>\n
The Republican National Committee is \u201call-in\u201d behind President Trump, even publishing a webpage defaming James Comey.\u00a0 Members of Congress continue to act as Trump\u2019s first line of defense.<\/p>\n
So again, we depend on the sense of civic duty of the Republicans in the Congress.\u00a0 At what point will they realize that the actions of President Trump and those surrounding him have brought the nation into disrepute, and threaten the foundations of our democracy?\u00a0 They clearly haven\u2019t yet.<\/p>\n
We are on the cusp of the crisis.\u00a0 It may happen today, it may happen in a month.\u00a0 But it\u2019s happening.<\/p>\n
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