{"id":7830,"date":"2025-04-24T09:40:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T13:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=7830"},"modified":"2025-04-24T09:40:17","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T13:40:17","slug":"ukrainian-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2025\/04\/24\/ukrainian-disaster\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukrainian Disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fall of the Soviet Union<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It was only in thirty-four years ago.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviet Union collapsed, driven to economic disaster by US President Ronald Reagan.\u00a0\u00a0It was a simple game of \u201crich man\u2019s\u201d poker.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviet Union and the United States were in an incredibly expensive arms race.\u00a0\u00a0The US keeping \u201craising\u201d the pot, and the USSR tried to match each bid. Some examples: the US SR-71 Blackbird high speed observation plane, versus the MIG 31 Foxhound fighter jet, and the US \u201cStar Wars\u201d space defense initiative versus the Soviet SK-1000 anti-satellite system.\u00a0\u00a0In the end, the US was spending about 6% of America\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense. The USSR was matching the \u201craises\u201d, but ended up with an unsustainable 22% of its GDP tied up in the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their economy collapsed, and in 1991, the Soviet Union failed.\u00a0\u00a0Out of that economic failure, the \u201cSoviet Bloc\u201d became sovereign nations.\u00a0\u00a0The largest was in the Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0Of big concern, was what would happen to the widespread Soviet nuclear forces as the USSR dissolved into separate states. The specter of small, unstable nations with massive nuclear arms was unacceptable.\u00a0\u00a0So, in 1994, the United States under President Clinton, gave the new nation of Ukraine assurances. The US said that if they would give up the Soviet nuclear arsenal in their territory, the US would protect them from future incursions (Brookings<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia and Ukraine<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The USSR, now much smaller as Russia, also retained their only ice-free naval base at Sevastopol in the Crimean Peninsula.\u00a0\u00a0While it was considered Ukrainian territory, the area around the base was governed by Russia, much like the US base in Guantanamo, Cuba.\u00a0\u00a0Crimea was a continuing bone of contention between Russia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the eastern provinces of Ukraine (Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk \u201coblasts\u201d) had a greater population of ethnic Russians than the rest of the new nation.\u00a0\u00a0There was constant instability in those regions between Ukrainians and Russians. Russia contributed to the unrest.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2013-14 a pro-Russia Ukrainian President, Victor Yanukovych, was overthrown in the \u201cRevolution of Dignity\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Yanukovych (who had the same campaign manager as Donald Trump, Paul Manafort), fled to Moscow, and a pro-Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko won the Presidency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops in to take control of the entire province of Crimea, and supported open revolt in the Eastern Provinces.\u00a0\u00a0Some of the fighters there were native Ukrainians who supported Russia, and some were \u201cundercover\u201d Russian forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was little that US President Obama could do militarily.\u00a0\u00a0There was no well-organized Ukrainian military forces capable of stopping the Russian incursions, and a direct US military confrontation with Russia in Crimea was unsustainable.\u00a0\u00a0Obama was able to organize world economic sanctions against Russia, hoping to create the economic pressure that Reagan used.\u00a0\u00a0But Russia, with the support of China and India, was able to maintain economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prepared for War<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine recognized that this was only the beginning of Russia\u2019s intentions towards their nation.\u00a0\u00a0Both under President Poroshenko, and then President Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian military built up both land-based forces and a highly technical electronic warfare capability.\u00a0\u00a0The United States was pivotal in providing weapons and advice in that buildup, often working with other NATO nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February of 2022, Russia launched in all-out invasion of Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0Putin\u2019s strategy was to pressure Ukrainian forces in the Eastern provinces and at the Crimean border, launch air attacks on cities throughout the nation, and directly attack the capital of Kyiv with mobile forces and tanks.\u00a0\u00a0Surprising the world, Ukraine stopped the Russian thrust, and was able to maintain most of its borders as well.\u00a0\u00a0The US under President Biden and NATO began pouring weaponry into the country. While there have been successes and failures on both sides of the conflict, it remains static today, over three years later.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Ceasefire<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As Donald Trump ran for President in 2024, a critical promise of his campaign was that \u201conly he\u201d could negotiate a \u201cdeal\u201d between Russia and Ukraine.\u00a0Soon after he took office, he made it clear that he would demand concessions from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, more than President Putin of Russia.\u00a0And after an ugly White House confrontation in front of the press, the Ukrainians have made some concessions.\u00a0\u00a0But Putin has agreed to absolutely nothing, and seems only willing to keep Russian gains and regain Russian losses.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin is making Trump (and Vance, Rubio, and the rest) look bad.\u00a0\u00a0In response, the United States is threatening to walk away from the negotiations that they started.\u00a0\u00a0But in the meantime, the US aid to Ukraine is diminished, leaving them struggling to maintain the battle lines they currently control.\u00a0\u00a0The rest of NATO is trying to bolster them up, but US aid is critical to maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

History Speaks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine gave up its nuclear deterrent based on US assurances.\u00a0\u00a0Russia in 2014 and again in 2022, invaded Ukrainian territory.\u00a0\u00a0They are continuing attacks not only on Ukrainian military targets, but on civilians as well.\u00a0\u00a0There really is no question who is the \u201caggressor\u201d and who is the \u201cdefender\u201d here.\u00a0\u00a0And there should be no question what the US strategy should be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Trump wants a ceasefire, he cannot bargain from weakness.\u00a0\u00a0His existing strategy towards Ukraine, draining them of US support and resources, only encourages Putin to continue his efforts to conquer the nation. \u00a0Trump, the \u201cart of the deal\u201d author, needs to give Putin a clear choice.\u00a0\u00a0Either come to the table with a legitimate position, or face full American support for the Ukrainian military.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now the Trump Administration is signaling the exact opposite.\u00a0\u00a0The US is saying: make a deal, or we\u2019ll withdraw, and leave Ukraine \u201cswinging in the wind\u201d, and Russia undeterred.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s an American recipe for Ukrainian disaster.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fall of the Soviet Union It was only in thirty-four years ago.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviet Union collapsed, driven to economic disaster by US President Ronald Reagan.\u00a0\u00a0It was a simple game of \u201crich man\u2019s\u201d poker.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviet Union and the United States were in an incredibly expensive arms race.\u00a0\u00a0The US keeping \u201craising\u201d the pot, and the USSR tried to … Continue reading “Ukrainian Disaster”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nUkrainian Disaster : Our America - 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