Pete Nix was my first principal.\u00a0\u00a0He hired me as a teacher, for my first and only teaching job (it only lasted thirty-six years).\u00a0\u00a0Mr. Nix (he wasn\u2019t Pete until much later) was an intimidating man; a son of the South, a Marine, a successful wrestling coach turned administrator, and the Principal hired to bring order to an out-of-control school.\u00a0\u00a0I learned a lot from him: how to control a classroom, the civic responsibility of being a teacher, and to stand up when \u201cDixie\u201d was played. And Mr. Nix introduced me to many of the \u201csayings\u201d of the past.\u00a0\u00a0One that still sticks is when I fell through a window in my classroom (while teaching a class \u2013 don\u2019t ask); \u201cOhh, I really wish you hadn\u2019t done that!!\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another phrase that he often used, especially to those younger teachers who hoped to dazzle him with statistics was, \u201cFigures lie, and liars figure\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0I keep that in mind a lot, especially in these days of unlimited access to any figures you need to find \u2013 just Google it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I\u2019m awash in figures today, five days before election day, and probably ten days before we know the final results.\u00a0\u00a0All of the figures I\u2019m seeing, polls and polling averages; early voting turnout data, indicate that this is going to be a very close election.\u00a0\u00a0And that\u2019s a bad thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, it\u2019s a bad thing because it might mean that we are headed to another four years of a Donald Trump Presidency. And that\u2019s not just about Trump himself; he is also a \u201cuseful tool\u201d (not idiot) for all sorts of forces, both internal and foreign. Need an example: look at the United States Supreme Court today. They are well on the way to a Federalist Society sponsored, once in a century conservative Constitutional shift in American law and life. It happened in the last term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Which is another \u201cbad thing\u201d about a narrow election. Because even if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win the electoral vote, the Trump Campaign has made it clear they intend to contest the results. In 2020 that was kind of a \u201cfool\u2019s errand\u201d, losing sixty of sixty-one cases from local to Federal courts. And the US Supreme Court, wisely, stayed out of the fray, refusing to hear appeals on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Wednesday, the Supreme Court made it clear that they will intervene in the 2024 election.\u00a0\u00a0Six days before this election, the Court ruled that the Commonwealth of Virginia could disqualify as many as 1600 \u201cpossible\u201d non-citizens from voting.\u00a0\u00a0The Court rejected the Congressional mandate to ban voting purges within sixty days of elections, and said Virginia\u2019s authority to determination qualifications to vote is \u201cmore important\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0(Keep in mind, it has already been demonstrated that many of those 1600 are in fact US Citizens, but they may be disenfranchised anyway).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And, not surprising, the Court decision was the six Republicans to three Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The whole point: the Trump Campaign already has undercut confidence in the election process. They are poised to legally (and perhaps not so legally) attack an outcome not to their liking. And while Democrats have a \u201csecret weapon\u201d, highly successful attorney Marc Elias and his massive legal firm, we all now know that the Supreme Court is willing to be a part of a post-election charade. They\u2019re likely to put a thumb on the scale. They already have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And then there\u2019s Trump\u2019s \u201clittle secret\u201d with Speaker Mike Johnson, likely a ploy to disrupt electoral votes at the state level. That would deny Harris the votes she earned, then try to force the Presidential choice into the House of Representatives for a \u201ctie-breaking\u201d vote. (Under the Constitution, the House breaks a Presidential tie by a process where each state gets a single vote. Even if Democrats control the House, by-state there is a Republican majority.) Rather than go into further detail now, if that happens you can be sure I\u2019ll have all of the \u201cnuts and bolts\u201d available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So that\u2019s all the bad news. A close election might mean Trump wins, but even if Harris\/Walz eke-out a victory, there\u2019s still likely to be a post-vote struggle for the Presidency. But I\u2019m not so sure that this really is going to be a close election. Maybe I\u2019m \u201cfigurin\u2019\u201d (I\u2019m not intentionally lying); but here\u2019s some of the indicators I look at that make me more hopeful for a wider Harris win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s start with polling.\u00a0\u00a0Trump won Ohio by eight percent in 2020 and 2016.\u00a0\u00a0The turnout was 66.5% in 2016, and 74% in 2020.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Almost 2 million Ohioans have already voted, with 300,000 absentee ballots still to be returned and four more days of early voting.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s likely to top 2020\u2019s three million absentee\/early voting by a lot, and would be more than half of the 2020 turnout. A larger turnout benefits the Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0Right now Ohio is polling at six percent for Trump, taken by the noted Republican leaning pollster Trafalgar.\u00a0\u00a0Trump may still win Ohio, but not by as much.\u00a0\u00a0That would be good news for Senator Sherrod Brown who needs to run ahead of Harris.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump won Kansas in 2020 by 15%.\u00a0\u00a0The latest polling today puts him up 5%.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0And if the margins are so much closer in Ohio and Kansas, then all of those \u201cnarrow\u201d swing states , maybe, aren’t so close after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Women are out voting men, and between gender and abortion, it\u2019s likely more they are voting for Harris. Meanwhile, Trump is doubling and tripling down on the \u201cBro Vote\u201d, the 18-35 white male vote.\u00a0\u00a0But they are traditionally one of the least dependable voting groups, and often don\u2019t show up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 2022 polling failed to \u201cmodel in\u201d America\u2019s reaction to the Dodd\u2019s\u2019 Decision on abortion.\u00a0\u00a0The expected \u201cRed Wave\u201d ended up being a “Red Trickle” and actually a pretty good day for Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0Not much has changed, and there\u2019s a woman on the ticket.\u00a0\u00a0If that\u2019s not part of current polling models, then all bets are off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And finally, there\u2019s the intangibles: here in Trump Country, there are few Trump\/Vance signs, where once they were as plentiful as the falling maple leaves. But get into Harris town, and there\u2019s a ton of signs, banners, and flags. Democrats are heavily invested in Get Out The Vote, while Republicans aren\u2019t, instead putting their money in \u201cContesting the Election Results\u201d stuff. If it really is close, the best GOTV wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It’s all variables; but as many of the commentators say; I\u2019d rather be Harris than Trump.\u00a0\u00a0And what can we do about it?\u00a0\u00a0Turnout wins \u2013 GOTV!!!\u00a0\u00a0Get others to vote, go out and vote, Get Out the Vote!!!\u00a0\u00a0After all, it is a simple figures game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"