Read the polls: this might be the closest election in American history. And, if you\u2019re a normal Democrat, you are, how do you say: freaking out. That\u2019s understandable. We all woke up on Wednesday, November 9th<\/sup>, 2016. The Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder is real! No Democrat ever wants to go through that again. And, I\u2019m not here to allay your fears. But I am here to show you the facts of this election process, and while your fears may be real, they aren\u2019t as real as the fears the \u201cother side\u201d should have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It would be so much easier if our electoral process was a simple democracy; a system where Americans vote, and the most votes win.\u00a0\u00a0That way, \u201cland\u201d doesn\u2019t hold sway over a portion of our process, as opposed to people.\u00a0\u00a0But our Founding Fathers had their reasons. Some were practical, like getting the smaller states to sign onto the Constitution.\u00a0\u00a0And some were nefarious, like using the Constitution to prop-up enslavement.\u00a0Regardless, the Electoral College is our process, and it is very, very, very unlikely to change. Why?\u00a0\u00a0Change would require multiple small states to vote against their own self-interest.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0So the magic number isn\u2019t 80 million votes ,or so, it\u2019s 270 electoral votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One sad part of our Electoral College system, is that minority votes in the Presidential election in each state are ignored.\u00a0\u00a0Here in Ohio, there are millions of proud Democrats who will cast their vote for Vice President Harris. \u00a0Ohio used to be a \u201cbell weather state\u201d \u2013 now called a swing state.\u00a0\u00a0As recently as twelve years ago, Ohio voted for President Obama\u2019s re-election.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But then the state went hard for Trump in 2016, and while 2020 was closer, it seems our \u201cbell\u201d is ringing Red for now, as least as far as Donald Trump is concerned.\u00a0\u00a0(There are still Ohioans who think differently.\u00a0\u00a0They hope that an overwhelming urban turnout combined with the gradually \u201cpurpling\u201d suburbs might reverse the trend.\u00a0\u00a0I hope so, and I\u2019ll vote so. But, I\u2019m definitely not holding my breath)<\/em>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So if trends continue, Ohio, is a \u201cRed\u201d state, and will vote for Trump. Hopefully those Ohio Democratic votes will make the difference for Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Ohio Supreme Court Justices and State Issue One.\u00a0\u00a0But in all probability, all fifteen of Ohio\u2019s electoral votes will go for Trump, regardless of how close the popular vote is in the state.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nothing we can do about that now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So let\u2019s take the Electoral College, and look at the \u201csure things\u201d, Red and Blue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n So here\u2019s the list:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Red<\/strong>:\u00a0\u00a0Alaska, Florida, Texas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (-1), Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah (24 States, 218 Electoral Votes<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Blue<\/strong>: Maine (+\/-1), New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Wash. DC, Virginia, Illinois, New Mexico, Minnesota, New Mexico, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California (20 States, 226 Electoral Votes<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Those are pretty much set in stone. If those \u201cbreak away\u201d, then all bets are off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That leaves the following \u201cswing\u201d states as toss-ups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Swing<\/strong>:\u00a0\u00a0Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) , Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Arizona (11), Nevada (6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the election of 2000, Tim Russert of NBC News laid out the election as, \u201cFlorida, Florida, Florida\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Then in the election of 2004, the saying went:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cAs Ohio goes, so goes the Nation\u201d. This election in 2024 boils down to one critical state:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cIt\u2019s all about Pennsylvania\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So there\u2019s a mathematical \u201cword problem\u201d. Harris needs 44 more Electoral votes to win. Trump needs 52. What combinations of swing states would \u201cguarantee\u201d their win?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The minimal basic Democratic strategy to the Presidency is called the \u201cBlue Wall\u201d. Harris needs to win Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10) \u2013 44 Electoral votes. She doesn\u2019t need any more than that. If you wondering why Harris is spending most of her time in those three states, particularly Pennsylvania (it would take two states to make-up the loss); that\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But what if she were to lose one of those? Then Harris has to look to the \u201cSouthern Strategy\u201d to balance the loss, and win in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11) or Nevada (6). So, when you\u2019re watching the election returns on Tuesday night (and maybe on into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday) if you see the Blue Wall \u201cholding\u201d for Harris \u2013 get some sleep. And if you see the \u201cSouthern Strategy\u201d also going to Harris, it\u2019s time to \u201cRaise a Glass!!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, how does Trump win? He has to \u201crun the table\u201d, the same way he did in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton. First he has to break the \u201cBlue Wall\u201d, at least by winning one (most likely) Pennsylvania. Then he has to win most of the Southern Strategy states. The minimum for Trump: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Nevada (6). That puts him at 275, and only the second President to serve \u201csplit terms\u201d. But here’s the rub: If he doesn\u2019t win Pennsylvania (19), but say, wins Michigan or Wisconsin, it\u2019s still difficult to see a path that leads to his victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And if he doesn\u2019t win North Carolina or Georgia, there isn\u2019t a likely path either, unless the entire map is flipped on its head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So if all things are really equal (I don\u2019t think they are, the \u201cmainstream\u201d polling averages like Real Clear and 538 are slanted to Republican pollsters)<\/em> then who\u2019s got the advantage on the final stretch?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Republicans eschewed spending for get out the vote operations, instead putting their money into legal challenges of the voting outcome. There are fewer Republican operatives on \u201cthe ground\u201d in swing states, fewer offices, fewer volunteer operations, fewer people making phone calls or knocking on doors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, Democrats have put massive funding into their \u201cground game\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0There are offices and staff in most counties in the swing states, and lots of volunteers to rally Dems to the polls.\u00a0\u00a0And it seems like that energy is already making a difference; early voting is breaking records in many states, including here in Ohio, where almost a million people have already cast their ballots.\u00a0\u00a0As Joe Biden discovered in 2020, bigger turnout favors Democrats.\u00a0\u00a0Remember, Trump had the most votes for President of any candidate in history\u00a0 in 2020, except for Joe Biden!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n By the way, if you want to help Democrats, vote early. Campaigns know that you\u2019ve cast your ballot, and won\u2019t spend money or effort to get you to \u2013 you already have!! (No, they don\u2019t know who you voted for, just the fact you\u2019ve already \u201cmade your bet\u201d and can\u2019t change it). <\/p>\n\n\n\n And don\u2019t worry Dems, we\u2019ve got the \u201cshenanigans\u201d after the election covered too. Marc Elias, election lawyer extraordinaire, has built a broad team to defend Democrats state by state and federally as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n President Obama says it best.\u00a0\u00a0In rallies when he mentions Trump, at least for the first time, there are general \u201cboos\u201d from the audience.\u00a0\u00a0Obama pauses, holds up a finger, then firmly states:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cDon\u2019t Boo, VOTE!!\u201d\u00a0\u00a0If worrying would elect the President, we\u2019d be fine.\u00a0\u00a0But that doesn\u2019t help, so \u201cDon\u2019t Worry, VOTE!!\u201d then find a way to help. Persuade someone to support Harris, or make sure a supporter gets to cast their vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Do something \u2013 it\u2019s the surest path to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As Ohio Goes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Red, Blue and Swing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Blue Wall<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Run the Table<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Final Stretch<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Help the Cause<\/h3>\n\n\n\n