Horse racing isn\u2019t simple, but the goal of horse racing is: to win the race.\u00a0\u00a0There are all sorts of tactics to achieve that goal. I don\u2019t know a lot about horse racing, though as a track coach, I do know about tactics.\u00a0\u00a0Like horses, different athletes bring different strengths to the race; fast at the beginning, strong at the end, courageous from the back, comfortable in the lead.\u00a0\u00a0And athletes, and horses, can get distracted in a race and lose focus on the goal: to win.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With athletes I often give them \u201ccheckmarks\u201d, points along the way where they need to re-check their tactics and their focus, and make sure they\u2019re \u201cmind\u2019s right\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0With horses it\u2019s not quite so easy; the jockey has to control the distractions along the way, and determine when it\u2019s time to \u201cgo\u201d for the finish (as the old Dan Fogelberg song goes:\u00a0\u00a0Run for the Roses!).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0One way to control the distractions for a horse, is to put blinders on them.\u00a0\u00a0Blinders restrict their vision only to the front.\u00a0\u00a0There\u2019s an obscure car racing movie, Gumball Rally, that had only one famous line:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cThe first rule of Italian driving, what\u2019s behind me is not important\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0So too for the horses in the final stretch: make sure they\u2019re not distracted.\u00a0\u00a0Put blinders on them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I was in a social media discussion the other day, and one of the participants stated that I had blinders on. It wasn\u2019t meant as a compliment, but I took it that way. Because we need blinders right now as we enter the last three weeks of the American Presidential campaign. There are so many things to distract us, to waste energy and time on, to \u201close our minds\u201d about. As the old civil rights slogan goes, we need to \u201ckeep our eyes on the prize\u201d. So put your blinders on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I swore after 2016 I wouldn\u2019t get sucked back into daily political polls. 2016 polling was just wrong: understandably, I guess, Trump voters didn\u2019t want to tell anybody. But they did vote, and so what looked like an easy Clinton win, became a shocking Trump victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And I did a pretty good job of ignoring polls in 2020.\u00a0\u00a0The Covid Presidential election was truly unreadable; who would vote, what impact did Biden following Covid protocols versus Trump himself getting Covid then ripping his mask off (he almost wore a Superman shirt) on the White House terrace have on voters.\u00a0\u00a0It turned out to be the same kind of \u201csqueaker\u201d as 2016, with Biden coming out on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But in 2022 the polls predicted a \u201cRed Wave\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The pollsters underestimated the power of women and reaction to the Supreme Court decision ending Roe v Wade.\u00a0\u00a0But for the internal Democratic fight in New York state, Democrats would have kept the House and the Senate.\u00a0\u00a0In spite of New York, instead of an overwhelming Republican victory, Democrats kept the Senate and barely, by five votes, lost the House.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So here we are in 2024.\u00a0\u00a0And I got sucked back into the polls again, just like I did in 2016.\u00a0\u00a0The polling is showing, right now, that this election is even narrower than 2016 and 2020.\u00a0\u00a0It could go either way, inconceivable as it is to me that we could return to Trump after the January 6th<\/sup>\u00a0Insurrection.\u00a0\u00a0I\u2019ve written a lot about polling, and the dangers of \u201cliving and dying\u201d on a one percent change in polls that have a four percent margin of error.\u00a0\u00a0In the end, Trump up one percent, Harris up two percent; it\u2019s meaningless.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s just crazy, crazy close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Are the pollsters under estimating the power of women, again? Is the model over-compensating for the Trump voters they missed in 2016? How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? It just doesn\u2019t matter: put your blinders on, and get to work. There\u2019s three weeks to go, it\u2019s time for a \u201cstretch run\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n So, say that Kamala Harris wins both elections, the popular vote and the electoral college.\u00a0\u00a0Will there be a second Insurrection, this time better conceived, planned and executed?\u00a0\u00a0Will “the will” of the people be served, or will the dark MAGA forces rise up and try to wrest the Presidency by \u201chook or by crook\u201d?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n We all know, it might happen.\u00a0\u00a0And worse, we can\u2019t be sure that the US Supreme Court will do the right thing.\u00a0They\u2019ve already put their judicial thumb on the scales of Justice, granting Trump unheard of immunity for actions he took as President.\u00a0\u00a0Things could get incredibly ugly between November 5th<\/sup>\u00a0and January 20th<\/sup>.\u00a0 But, for right now, there\u2019s not a damn thing we can do about it.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s like worrying about the final race when you haven\u2019t finished the prelims yet.\u00a0\u00a0Put your blinders on, we\u2019ve got to get through this finish line first, then we can deal with the next issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So what about the Black men who might vote for Trump, or the Hispanic vote that seems to be leaking towards him, or the Muslim vote that might sit out the election in protest to Biden?\u00a0\u00a0There\u2019s an old political \u201csaw\u201d:\u00a0\u00a0in the end, voters will come home.\u00a0\u00a087% of Black men voted for Joe Biden.\u00a0\u00a0There may be a vocal few who switch to Trump, but the reality is that Harris is likely to draw at least that much.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n 59% of Hispanic voters (men and women) chose Biden over Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Sure it might be a little closer this time around, but there\u2019s no \u201cmass movement\u201d of Hispanic voters to Trump.\u00a0\u00a0That shouldn\u2019t be a surprise, Trump is denigrating Hispanics almost daily in his rallies.\u00a0\u00a0And what about Muslim voters, particularly in the swing state of Michigan?\u00a0\u00a0They aren\u2019t going to vote for Trump, but will they turn out for Harris? Do you think they\u2019ll vote for a Jewish lady from Chicago, Jill Stein? In the end, Muslims represent less than 3% of the Michigan vote.\u00a0\u00a0While they are important, their vote is a very small slice of a much bigger pie.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s hard to say what they will do, (other than they won\u2019t vote for Trump) but unless you have a way to impact them directly, there\u2019s not much you can do about it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n And what about white men, and the \u201chidden\u201d misogynistic, \u201cI won\u2019t vote for a woman\u201d vote? It\u2019s the same vote that ultimately cost Hillary the White House. Hopefully eight years has changed many Americans\u2019 views, and certainly the younger generation is less burdened by prejudice than their elders. But the bottom line: if being a woman disqualifies Harris from a man\u2019s vote, he probably wasn\u2019t going to vote for a Democrat anyway. Put your blinders on, and keep your \u201ceyes on the prize\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And just an aside, how can folks vote for a man who held a rally in the desert this weekend, and required everyone to park five miles away and bus in. Then, he didn\u2019t pay for the buses to take them back, and abandoned his crowd to hike the miles back to their cars. It was a strategy to make sure no one left early, and it demonstrates Trump\u2019s \u201cconcern\u201d for his MAGA crowd \u2013 none. But don\u2019t get distracted, the walkers are still voting for him anyway. They\u2019ve got blinders too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You can\u2019t change the polls, and you can\u2019t pick up people from the rally.\u00a0\u00a0But you can still impact the Presidential race.\u00a0\u00a0You can call the campaign and volunteer; to make calls, knock on doors. And you can try to influence folks who listen to you (and write essays too).\u00a0\u00a0You can donate money, in an era where it takes billions of dollars to run for President.\u00a0\u00a0But most importantly:\u00a0\u00a0you can put your blinders on, and you can make sure that you, and your like-minded friends and family, vote.\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s keeping your eyes on the prize.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Post-Elections Shenanigans<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Vote Against Themselves<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Trump Voters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Race<\/h3>\n\n\n\n