{"id":7407,"date":"2024-10-06T09:04:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-06T13:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=7407"},"modified":"2024-10-06T09:04:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-06T13:04:12","slug":"thirty-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/10\/06\/thirty-days\/","title":{"rendered":"Thirty Days"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"\"><em>Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! \u2026Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me,&nbsp;<\/em><em>give me liberty or give me death!<\/em><em>&nbsp;&nbsp;&#8211; Patrick Henry to the Virginia House of Burgesses, March 23, 1775<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Actually Begun<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">It&#8217;s October 6<sup>th<\/sup>, thirty days before election day.&nbsp;&nbsp;But, of course, in our modern era, \u201cthe war is actually begun!!\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Seven states are already voting.&nbsp;&nbsp;Here in Ohio, voter registration ends tomorrow, and early voting starts Tuesday (<a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/09\/25\/voting-information\/\">voting information<\/a>).&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s estimated that at least 40% of votes will be cast before November 5<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp;&nbsp;(<em>And it\u2019s not that old Democratic joke: \u201cVote early and vote often.\u201d)&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em>This year, both campaigns are encouraging early voting.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s not just to make sure that \u201ctheir\u201d voters actually cast a ballot.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s a \u201cmoney\u201d thing.&nbsp;&nbsp;When a vote is cast, that&nbsp;&nbsp;fact is immediately registered on the voter list (that they voted, not how they voted).&nbsp;&nbsp;Campaigns can stop campaigning to those voters, using the resources directly to those who have not voted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Want to help your candidate?&nbsp;&nbsp;Vote early, by mail or in-person, and get it over with.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s kind of like Christmas shopping.&nbsp;&nbsp;Sure, you can be the person on Christmas Eve, desperately waiting in line for the last minute bargains.&nbsp;&nbsp;But there\u2019s always that issue, the \u201cperfect gift\u201d is out-of-stock.&nbsp;&nbsp;Election day voting is \u201cfun\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;There\u2019s lines and excitement; the feeling of being part of the great American experiment in real-time.&nbsp;&nbsp;But there\u2019s always the issues; car, weather, job; all things that might get in the way of casting your ballot.&nbsp;&nbsp;So make the campaigns happy, vote early (not often).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Minute-by-Minute<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Back in August, at the Democratic Convention, there was a new spirit in the Democratic Party.&nbsp;&nbsp;Harris was uplifting:&nbsp;&nbsp;instead of \u201cjust\u201d saving Democracy, she was offering a new vision beyond \u201cWe are not going back\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;And that\u2019s still true.&nbsp;&nbsp;But, now a month later, there is also a growing dread.&nbsp;&nbsp;After everything thrown at the Trump campaign, after all the minute-by-minute lying Trump and Vance have done; it\u2019s still an extremely narrow election.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Part of that is also \u201ctheatre\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;The two major polling averages, Real Clear Politics and 538; use a greater number of \u201cRed\u201d polls, done with a bias towards the Republican side.&nbsp;&nbsp;Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg lists twenty-seven polls that are \u201cred-leaning\u201d, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\"><em>Daily Mail, Cygnal, Emerson, Fabrizio, Fox News, Insider Advantage, McLaughlin, Napolitan Institute, Public Opinion Strategies, Rasmussen, Remington, RMG, SoCal Data, The Telegraph, Trafalgar, and (of course) the Wall Street Journal<\/em>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">More \u201cred\u201d polls, more \u201credder\u201d numbers in the average.&nbsp;&nbsp;No matter how well the Harris\/Walz ticket does, the average still slants \u201cred\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Today, Real Clear Politics averages has Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.&nbsp;&nbsp;But in the swing states, where the Electoral College will be determined, it\u2019s tied 48% to 48%.&nbsp;&nbsp;And that\u2019s the \u201cslanted\u201d version.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stressors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">So why all the mumbling and jumbling of numbers?&nbsp;&nbsp;Because we have reached that point in the election, where the beginning is long ago, and the end too far away.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;For those who are attuned, the adrenalin tap has been on full (like Trump\u2019s giant water valve) for two months.&nbsp;&nbsp;All of the chemical stress takes a toll, and it\u2019s easy to start to despair.&nbsp;&nbsp;And those damn numbers don\u2019t help.&nbsp;&nbsp;So add a grain of salt (or a bag) to the flood of polling data:&nbsp;&nbsp;remember they are \u201cleaned\u201d in a direction. (<em>For those of you who are MSNBC fans, and struggle with Steve Kornacki who seems to always have \u201cbad\u201d news \u2013 remember he\u2019s using these same numbers.&nbsp;&nbsp;As my programmer friends used to say, \u201cGarbage in, Garbage out\u201d).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Want to unstress?&nbsp;&nbsp;Do something.&nbsp;&nbsp;Put up a sign, knock on some doors; heaven forbid, have a conversation with your neighbor (probably not the one with the F**K Biden flag still flying).&nbsp;&nbsp;Do what you can to support your candidate.&nbsp;&nbsp;Write a letter, or an essay (or guest write one here on Our America).&nbsp;&nbsp;Action always reliefs stress.&nbsp;&nbsp;And the most important thing you can do, is vote.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">To paraphrase Patrick Henry:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">\u201cI know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me the ballot, or give me death!\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! \u2026Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/10\/06\/thirty-days\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Thirty Days&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Thirty Days : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/10\/06\/thirty-days\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Thirty Days : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! 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