Our politicians think we\u2019re not very smart. And, surprisingly, it\u2019s not just one party. Politicians on both sides of the aisle seem to think \u201cwe the voters\u201d just are, well, kind of dumb. That\u2019s a dangerous assumption to make. American voters are often very astute. An example: here in Ohio on the recent abortion amendment, voters who wanted the amendment to pass first had to vote No on Issue One in August, then Yes on Issue One in November. That mental gymnastics was awkward, but voters got it. The Amendment passed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I listen to commentators telling us that Donald Trump is shifting on the abortion issue, or that Harris is more pro-Palestinian than Biden. With deep and knowing voices, they let us know that the candidates are \u201cmoving\u201d to the middle, and might be in danger of losing their base voters. As the Marjorie Stoneman Douglas kids so often said: I call \u201cBS\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s take Trump\u2019s \u201cgymnastics\u201d on abortion.\u00a0\u00a0First, Donald Trump was pro-choice, way back before the end of the \u201cApprentice\u201d and his reinvention as a Presidential candidate.\u00a0\u00a0Then he was pro-life, so much so that he talked about how women having abortions ought to be punished, on air with Chris Matthews back in 2015.\u00a0\u00a0It was part of his campaign to earn the pro-life vote, and it worked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He is the man who brought us Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch (in place of Merrick Garland), Kavanaugh, and Comey-Barrett (in place of what should have been another Democratic appointee).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Trump changed the nature of the Supreme Court, and the course of American legal rights.\u00a0\u00a0And he assured the Nation that over-ruling\u00a0Roe v Wade<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0was what \u201ceveryone wanted\u201d:\u00a0\u00a0millions of American women lost control of their own health care choices.\u00a0\u00a0He paid back his pro-life supporters in full.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Trump is up against \u201cthe ropes\u201d in what may be another narrowly decided election. He needs to expand his \u201cbase\u201d of voters, a very difficult political maneuver. So now he\u2019s against a national abortion ban, and he\u2019s so in favor of In-Vitro Fertilization that he wants the government to pay for it. Trump thinks that there\u2019s some incredibly narrow segment of voters who will say, \u201cOh, he\u2019s kind of pro-choice again, I\u2019ll vote for him\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Really: the guy who (with the help of Mitch McConnell) single-handedly change America\u2019s abortion policy for the first time in fifty years? The man who \u201cslayed\u201d Roe<\/em>? He\u2019s Pro-Choice? Few voters are going to be fooled by that. And as for his \u201cbase\u201d slipping; the pro-life voters know who exactly who their candidate is. With \u201ca wink and a nod\u201d, they\u2019ll let him say anything he wants. Donald Trump has \u201ctold them who he is\u201d, and they listened. They\u2019re certainly not going to vote for Kamala Harris, and they aren\u2019t going to stay home either. They know a \u201cfeint\u201d when they see one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, it’s all about what is condescendingly called \u201csoccer moms\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s the suburban women\u2019s vote, in places like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Milwaukee (and Columbus, Ohio too; though probably not enough to make a difference in the state\u2019s outcome).\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s the voting block most mobilized by the end of\u00a0Roe.\u00a0<\/em>States as \u201cred\u201d as Ohio, Kentucky and Kansas stood for pro-choice at the ballot box.\u00a0\u00a0Soccer Moms normally vote Republican, but the abortion issue may have altered that paradigm.\u00a0\u00a0This is the first Presidential election where abortion is more than just a theoretical issue, and the Trump strategy is to throw those Moms \u201ca bone\u201d of pro-choice rhetoric.\u00a0\u00a0I don\u2019t think that \u201cbone\u201d is going to work; Soccer Mom\u2019s aren\u2019t fools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, Vice President Harris has her own issue to deal with.\u00a0\u00a0A narrow segment of her \u201cbase voters\u201d are pro-Palestinian, and believe that the American government hasn\u2019t done enough to stop the Israeli destruction in Gaza.\u00a0\u00a0The Harris campaign \u201cain\u2019t so dumb\u201d:\u00a0\u00a0they’re letting President Biden take the heat when it comes to the Middle East.\u00a0\u00a0While Harris has made it clear, even in her nomination acceptance speech, that she supports Israel; she is trying to shade a little closer to the Palestinian cause than Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Her base voters have nowhere to go either.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not like Trump, beholden to the Sheldon Adelson fortune and close friend of Bebe Netanyahu, is going to be anything but \u201call-in\u201d for Israel.\u00a0\u00a0The Harris campaign\u2019s concern is that those pro-Palestinian voters will simply choose \u201cnot to play\u201d, and stay at home on election day.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n So, it\u2019s a second group, one numerically more significant, that Harris is trying to motivate:\u00a0\u00a0young college kids.\u00a0\u00a0And that\u2019s where Harris is trying to thread the Middle East needle; for Israel, but, not so pro-Netanyahu.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Young voters are notoriously fickle.\u00a0\u00a0They usually don\u2019t show up at all.\u00a0\u00a0The last time they made a significant difference was in the Obama 2008 victory. That\u2019s not about \u201clazy kids\u201d, it\u2019s all about motivating them to make a difference.\u00a0\u00a0If they can find their way through the Harris-Palestinian dilemma, maybe they can impact the election.\u00a0\u00a0But they are just as likely to also take the third route, and choose \u201cnot to play\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0As George Bush so eloquently misquoted The Who: \u201c\u00a0fool me once, shame on \u2014 shame on you. Fool me \u2014 you can’t get fooled again.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0Be sure though:both candidates and both campaigns;\u00a0\u00a0they probably aren\u2019t fooling the voters.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Soccer Moms<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Thread the Needle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n