It\u2019s the week of the Democratic Convention. Two months ago, this was a moment fraught with peril. Joe Biden was in deep trouble, mired in the impossible task of \u201cproving\u201d his own fitness in the future tense. While he has an enormous record of success in the three years of his Presidency: rebuilding after Covid and \u201clanding\u201d the inflationary economy; legislation dealing with infrastructure and climate and reducing drug costs; appointing more Federal Judges than any President and ending America\u2019s longest war; all of that didn\u2019t matter. It wasn\u2019t even the old political phrase, \u201cWhat are you doing for me today\u201d. It was worse, the unanswerable, \u201cWhat will you be able to do tomorrow\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thousands of pro-Gaza demonstrators were looking to repeat the history of Chicago in 1968, when anti-Vietnam War protests disrupted the convention and the police caused chaos. They were poised to achieve the same \u201csuccess\u201d in 2024 as well. The riots of 1968 created a barrier so high for Democrats that the Republican, Richard Nixon, a staunch war supporter, was able to win the Presidency that November. Pro-Gaza demonstrators this week hopefully learned that \u201cwhole\u201d lesson. A Harris defeat is a Trump victory, guaranteeing total support for every possible action Israel chooses to take, regardless of the cost in Palestinian lives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Untying the knot of the Democratic Presidential choice looked unsolvable. Running with Biden, while well-deserved and earned, looked like a sure path to defeat. And that defeat would be more than just Biden, it seemed the guardrails in the Senate and House might fall as well, leaving Trump with a fully unified government to work his Project 2025 \u201cnightmare\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But choosing some other candidate in a month\u2019s timespan also seemed impossible.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cblessing\u201d of a deep Democratic bench:\u00a0\u00a0Harris, Whitmer, Buttigieg, Moore, Newsom, Shapiro; all pointing to 2028 as \u201ctheir time\u201d; would surely \u201ctake their shot\u201d in an open vote.\u00a0\u00a0And that would create typical Democratic chaos, a confusion that even a Convention wouldn\u2019t clarify.\u00a0\u00a0It wasn\u2019t a path to the Presidency, it was one to fractionalization that would never heal, at least, in time for the election of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Biden cut the knot, sacrificing his own political career to change the paradigm.\u00a0\u00a0And he immediately paved the way for Harris to inherit his mantle, demanding that the \u201cbench\u201d follow his lead.\u00a0\u00a0Any other action became an act of disloyalty, and worse, giving \u201caid and comfort\u201d to Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Harris became the presumptive nominee in thirty-six hours, the bench all fell in line.\u00a0\u00a0So now, going into a week of \u201cDemocracy\u201d, where do we stand?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Harris is masterful in handling her candidacy.\u00a0\u00a0She spread out her rivals endorsements, so that her campaign was constantly in the front of the news-cycle.\u00a0\u00a0She locked-in the most important Democratic \u201croyalty\u201d, Pelosi, the Clintons and the Obamas, all presenting a united front.\u00a0\u00a0And she carefully chose a Vice Presidential candidate to balance herself.\u00a0\u00a0She\u2019s a California politician; Tim Walz\u2019s is a Minnesota Governor, school teacher, National Guard Sergeant, and football coach.\u00a0\u00a0She\u2019s a product of an HBUC education, he\u2019s got very-Midwest degrees.\u00a0\u00a0And, of course, she\u2019s a She, Black, of South Asian descent.\u00a0\u00a0He\u2019s a White guy from Nebraska and Minnesota.\u00a0\u00a0You couldn\u2019t balance the ticket any better than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And she didn\u2019t take a Senator, any Senator. That leaves Democrats with a better-than-even chance of holding the US Senate majority in a very tough electoral map. Democrats hold a two-vote majority in the current Senate, but they will lose one of those after Joe Manchin retires and West Virginia finally matches their Senate seat to the rest of their all-Republican state. So Democrats are down to a one-vote lead, with five seats teetering on the brink. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In spite of the multiple millions of dollars spent, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Sherrod Brown in Ohio seem safe (so far).\u00a0\u00a0Democrat Reuben Gallego in Arizona’s open seat election, narrowly leads Kari Lake (up by 2% in the most recent poll, taken by the very Republican Club for Growth).\u00a0\u00a0Polling also shows that Democrat Jackie Rosen is clearly ahead in the Nevada.\u00a0\u00a0Which leaves Democrat incumbent John Tester in very-Red Montana, where polling shows a close race against Republican Tim Sheehy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
All of the Democratic Senate candidates have been buoyed by the successes of the new Harris-Walz campaign, also leading in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. And, of course, if Harris wins the Presidency, Vice President Tim Walz would cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the House of Representatives, re-districting in several states, especially New York, favors a Democratic majority. Republicans hold a six-vote majority in the 435 member body, so a flip of only four seats would change control. A powerful Harris-Walz ticket is likely to pull several more seats as well, leading to Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker of the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So the convention starts tomorrow. There’s lots of “official” labels, but it comes down to this. Monday Democrats will celebrate the successes of Joe Biden and his administration, with the President himself speaking. Tuesday will be about “vision”, highlighted by former President Barack Obama’s speech. Wednesday will be Tim Walz’s night, but the Clintons will also be on the podium. And, of course, Thursday will be all Kamala Harris’s night. What could have been a Democratic disaster, now will be a coronation of a master campaigner for President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s 2024, a year that so far proves that literally anything can happen. But, if the Democrats continue the trend-line of the last few weeks, and the city of Chicago and the Palestinian protestors don\u2019t make the same mistakes as 1968, the future looks bright. What was the \u201cperil\u201d of just a month ago, now looks like an exciting new promise for 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"