{"id":7269,"date":"2024-07-31T08:53:29","date_gmt":"2024-07-31T12:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=7269"},"modified":"2024-07-31T08:53:32","modified_gmt":"2024-07-31T12:53:32","slug":"political-survival","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/07\/31\/political-survival\/","title":{"rendered":"Political Survival"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Precepts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There are basic precepts of foreign policy that govern \u201ccivilized\u201d nations.  The first is called \u201cproportional response\u201d.  The idea is that if one Nation (or group) acts against another, the \u201cvictim\u201d is allowed to respond in the same way.  If Country A blows up a bridge in Country B, country B can respond, maybe blowing up an airfield.  But Country A\u2019s action doesn\u2019t justify Country B dropping a nuclear bomb \u2013 that would be a disproportionate response. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second precept is \u2013 don\u2019t \u201ccut off the head of the snake\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0It simply means that if a Country kills the leaders of the \u201cother side\u201d, then who can they negotiate with?\u00a0\u00a0A leadership strike only allows for an equal response and an all-out war, war that must end in the total destruction of one side or the other.\u00a0\u00a0Even in the \u201cbad old days\u201d of the Cold War and Mutual Assured Destruction (no matter what, there would be enough bombs left to destroy the other side), killing off the opposition leaders was the last move, because it left no room for a \u201cwiser-heads\u201d to prevail \u2013 they would be dead.\u00a0\u00a0The dark joke, \u201cMoscow in flames, bombs on the way, film at eleven\u201d meant that it was all over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the third political precept was popularized by Abraham Lincoln.  In the bloodiest days of the Civil War, the awful 1864 campaigns across Virginia from the Wilderness to Spotsylvania to Cold Harbor and finally Petersburg (over 7,600 Union troops killed, near 40,000 wounded); the Union held a Presidential election.  Lincoln asked that the Nation \u201cnot change horses in mid-stream\u201d, and re-elect him.  In the bloody summer, it was a real question whether Lincoln or General George McClellan would be President the next year.  Only Sherman\u2019s victory in Georgia (leading to his famous \u201cMarch to the Sea\u201d) saved Lincoln\u2019s tenure in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

October 7th<\/sup><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On October 7th<\/sup>\u00a0Hamas, the group running the Palestinian Gaza region, launched a terrorist attack on Israel.\u00a0\u00a0Over a thousand Israelis, mostly civilians, were massacred, many in horrific ways.\u00a0\u00a0Hamas was a \u201cquasi-national\u201d state; governing Gaza with an iron hand, in charge of hospitals and water and trash collection; all of the \u201cthings\u201d a government should do.\u00a0\u00a0There is no question that the Israeli government needed to respond, in force, to the direct provocation.\u00a0\u00a0It made sense that Israel should do whatever it could to remove those who planned the attack, and make sure that it never happened again.\u00a0\u00a0It is the basic slogan of the founding of Israel after the Holocaust \u2013 Never Again!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past nine months, Israel systematically destroyed Hamas assets and leaders.\u00a0\u00a0According to Israeli estimates, 15,000 Hamas soldiers have been killed.\u00a0\u00a0But Gaza is a tightly packed region, with over 2 million people crammed into an area the size of Las Vegas (three times the population).\u00a0\u00a0And over half of the population is 18 years old or under.\u00a0\u00a0Hamas estimates (and neutral sources agree) that over 40,000 Gazans have been killed.\u00a0\u00a0And since half the population is 18 or under, it stands to reason that many were children. (Note:\u00a0\u00a0Hamas also recruits teenagers as soldiers, so many of the 15,000 claimed by the Israelis were children as well).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dis-Proportional Responses<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It is a question of proportional response.  Israel is leaving \u201cno stone unturned\u201d in its search for Hamas.  A look at the devastation seems like they\u2019ve left few buildings still standing, either.  Legitimately Israel has a right and a duty to defend and protect its people.  But when does that action go beyond \u201cproportional response\u201d to simple revenge?  The theoretical difference between civilized nation-states and terrorist non-state actors is the willingness to protect civilians and enforce the  \u201crules\u201d of civilized war.  Israel takes a different view.  They are willing to act as a \u201cterrorist non-state\u201d against Hamas, regardless of the Palestinian civilians in the way.  It\u2019s a short term solution, which is likely to lead to a much longer term problem,  creating a whole new generation of terrorists.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday Israel launched an attack on the \u201cpolitical\u201d leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh.\u00a0\u00a0(Israel has not taken responsibility for this attack, yet.\u00a0\u00a0Meanwhile, the military leader of Hamas is still in Gaza, Yehya Sinwar).\u00a0\u00a0They identified that Haniyeh was at a home in Tehran; after celebrating the inauguration of the new President of Iran.\u00a0\u00a0The Israeli\u2019s launched a missile, killing Haniyeh in the Iranian capital.\u00a0\u00a0In addition, Israel also dropped a missile on a leader of another terrorist group, Hezbollah, in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.\u00a0\u00a0This was in response to a Hezbollah missile that killed a dozen teenagers when it landed on a soccer field in the Israeli occupied Golan Heights.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In essence, Israel is  \u201ccutting off the head\u201d of Hamas, just as negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza are showing some progress.   Which poses the question:  who does Israel expect to negotiate with, or do they want to negotiate at all?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War or Politics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Which gets us to our third precept:  changing horses in mid-stream.  The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, is deeply unpopular (recent polling shows him at 36%, albeit 2% better than his opposition).  As long as Israel is deeply entangled in war, it\u2019s unlikely that the country will hold elections.  Netanyahu has a political interest in maintaining war, and seems to be willing to risk expanding the conflict to include both an all-out war with Hezbollah, and perhaps even the nation-state Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Netanyahu a hero, showing stern resolve against enemies of the Israeli state:  Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran?  Or is Netanyahu a political opportunist, using bloodshed and unnecessary violence to maintain his own political power?  Is he willing to risk a regional conflict, an open war with Iran?  After all, he did kill a visiting \u201cdignitary\u201d in the Iranian capital city.  What would the United States do if that happened in Washington?  What would Israel do if it happened in Tel Aviv?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the question that arises from all this: will the United States maintain its resolute support for Israel if Iran acts with a dis-proportional response to the missile-assassination?  And how does that impact the American political process?  Did Biden know, or did Trump?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not just Netanyahu that is in \u201cmid-stream\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hamas\/Israel War<\/h5>\n\n\n\n