{"id":7247,"date":"2024-07-28T07:39:20","date_gmt":"2024-07-28T11:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=7247"},"modified":"2024-07-28T07:39:23","modified_gmt":"2024-07-28T11:39:23","slug":"political-intuition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2024\/07\/28\/political-intuition\/","title":{"rendered":"Political Intuition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When I Grow Up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While I eventually fell in love with teaching; when I was a kid, eleven or twelve, I decided to be a politician.  Maybe it was \u201cprogrammed\u201d into my head even earlier.  One of my Dad\u2019s oldest friends, Jerry Ransohoff, had me running for President when I was three in 1960, singing:  \u201cVote, vote, vote for Martin Dahlman, throw old \u201cIkey\u201d (President Eisenhower) down the sink\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know, it\u2019s not a fireman, or a cowboy.  It\u2019s kind of like saying, I want to grow up to be a real estate agent or a produce manager at the grocery.  But the heroes of my youth; the Kennedy brothers, were gone.  Even as a kid, I sensed the void their absence created.  Maybe I could be the one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critical Flaw<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Well, I wasn\u2019t.  In between my first taste as a \u201cpro\u201d in a Presidential campaign and managing a local race, I stepped into a classroom, and found a whole different vocation to fall in love with.  And in the meantime, I also found the seamier side of politics.  No matter how good a candidate, no matter how right on the issues, no matter how hard everyone worked; without the cash, it didn\u2019t matter.  Cash wasn\u2019t determined by \u201cvalue\u201d, it was controlled by \u201cpowers\u201d, whoever they were at the time.  And while I was great at parsing issues, motivating volunteers, even pretty good at writing; I was (and still am) a lousy fundraiser.  And that\u2019s a critical flaw in a politician.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are no regrets.\u00a0\u00a0I spent a career with kids; in the classroom, the office, on the track and the wrestling mat and even in the woods (cross country).\u00a0\u00a0There was success and failure, but there was always something learned and taught in each experience.\u00a0\u00a0Just yesterday, I saw a guy\u00a0\u00a0who looked older than me (my first students are now eligible for Medicare) at Kroger.\u00a0\u00a0He still wanted to let me know how his life was going as we stood in the candy aisle.\u00a0\u00a0I know I made an impact.\u00a0\u00a0It wasn\u2019t the \u201cnational impact\u201d that a twelve year-old dreamed of, but, as the saying goes, \u201cit ain\u2019t nothing neither<\/a>\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instinct<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But the political instincts I had at twelve didn\u2019t fade.  I still have a \u201csense\u201d of what works in politics, and what is a political loser.  The \u201ctried and true\u201d axiom of politics is this:  there is a percentage that will vote for you and a percentage that will vote against you.  Those are often \u201cfixed\u201d.  And then there\u2019s those who are undecided. It\u2019s the campaign that can reach the most of those folks in the middle that usually wins.   Every successful campaign follows the same plan. First, they introduce themselves to the voters.  Then they spend the majority of time trying to persuade the \u201cmiddle\u201d.  And finally, they work like crazy to get their own voters to come out and actually cast their ballots.  My old 1976 Carter\/Mondale Campaign boss Mike Jackson summed it up: introduce, persuade, Get Out the Vote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I do not understand the strategy of the MAGA-Republican Donald Trump.  He, of course, no longer needs an introduction.  Everyone, probably worldwide, has an opinion about Donald Trump.  He is the most polarizing figure in American politics since\u2026well, at least since the Civil War (look up Edmund Ruffin<\/a>).  Trump has an enormous following, willing to swallow his every statement, regardless of how outlandish or ridiculous it might be.  That\u2019s his \u201cfixed\u201d vote, his MAGA base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that base is a finite number, far less than the number required to actually win the Presidency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traditional political theory would have the Trump Campaign first introduce the Vice Presidential candidate to the American voter, and then try to persuade the undecided voters to join them.\u00a0\u00a0But the Trump team (with their typical arrogance) threw tradition out the window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hubris<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I guess I don\u2019t blame them.\u00a0\u00a0The Biden performance at the first debate gave them reason to believe there was no need for compromise.\u00a0\u00a0Like sharks in the water (not the electric boat kind) they thought it was over.\u00a0\u00a0It was time to swarm in, double-down on their core voters, and devour the Biden chum.\u00a0\u00a0It was even good enough to overshadow the Supreme Court ruling that gave Trump (and all Presidents) an unthinkable criminal immunity.\u00a0\u00a0Biden got a one-day reprieve, then it was right back to his lost capacity to serve.\u00a0\u00a0It was a losing battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Trump got the ultimate gift \u2013 eternal victimhood.  The assassin at Butler gave Trump a \u201cbloody shirt\u201d (or ear) to wave: the conquering hero that even the dreaded AR-15 couldn\u2019t stop.  It looked like that sad twenty year-old gunman \u201csealed the deal\u201d.  It didn\u2019t take an hour after the bullets flew, that the MAGA team had their \u201cbest shot\u201d up on social media:  Trump, bloody, surrounded by oddly short Secret Service agents, the raised fist; \u201cFight, fight, fight\u201d.  They couldn\u2019t have planned it any better (not implying anything \u2013 just saying). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So instead of choosing a Vice Presidential candidate that might be considered of the \u201cmiddle\u201d, a guy like Marco Rubio or even Doug Burgum (the Governor of North Dakota), they went with Ohio Senator JD Vance.\u00a0\u00a0He\u2019s a man of\u00a0Hillbilly Elegy<\/em>, Peter Thiel, Heritage Foundation, Project 2025, and the \u201cwe hate childless cat ladies\u201d right.\u00a0\u00a0Trump ignored the middle, and threw more red meat to the sharks.\u00a0\u00a0And for about two days, they were all riding the \u201cMAGA red wave\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0It looked like a tsunami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flip the Script<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Then Biden (willingly or not) flipped the script.\u00a0\u00a0He dropped out of the Presidential race.\u00a0\u00a0All of a sudden, the entire Trump strategic plan looked extreme and out-of-date.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cmiddle\u201d voters who thought Biden was too old, now were up for grabs again.\u00a0\u00a0The Trump team was over-committed to their own extremists.\u00a0\u00a0Even the bloody ear was questioned \u2013 the FBI said (and then recanted under pressure) that it was \u201cshrapnel\u201d, not the bullet, that caused the wound; as if it really mattered.\u00a0\u00a0I guess \u201cI took a shard for you\u201d doesn\u2019t sound as strong as \u201cI took a bullet for you\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now fifty-nine year-old Vice President Harris looks young and energetic compared to the seventy-eight year-old Trump.\u00a0\u00a0And the full weight of \u201cthe powers\u201d, the folks who control money,\u00a0\u00a0jumped on her side.\u00a0\u00a0She raised over $200 million in less than a week.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cRed Tsunami\u201d is stopped, for the moment.\u00a0\u00a0And a \u201cBlue Wave\u201d has surfaced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Countdown <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It’s 100 days to the November election (though early voting in some states starts on September 20th<\/sup>).\u00a0\u00a0Unlike my \u201cgood old days\u201d,\u00a0\u00a0as much as 40% of the vote will be in before election day.\u00a0\u00a0For Harris, Get Out the Vote starts just after Labor Day.\u00a0\u00a0And the Vice President still has to make her decision about her own Vice President, a decision just as fraught with risk as Trump\u2019s was.\u00a0\u00a0Does she look to the middle, Roy Cooper or Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro?\u00a0\u00a0Or does she match her own views with Pete Buttigieg?\u00a0\u00a0And is a twenty-year veteran school teacher turned politician, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, really in the running?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At least she has a realistic idea of how narrow this election could be.\u00a0Democrats don\u2019t need a tsunami (though it would be nice).\u00a0\u00a0Just a solid blue wave will do, big enough to win the Presidency, turn the House and keep the Senate. The stakes couldn’t be higher.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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