{"id":719,"date":"2018-03-06T08:20:50","date_gmt":"2018-03-06T13:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=719"},"modified":"2018-03-06T08:20:50","modified_gmt":"2018-03-06T13:20:50","slug":"why-is-trump-fueling-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/03\/06\/why-is-trump-fueling-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Why is Trump Fueling Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why is Trump Fueling Inflation?<\/p>\n

The Mueller noose is tightening around the Trump Presidency, but the outcome of the Russia investigation is far from certain, and meanwhile, Donald J Trump is still the President of the United States. As President, he has taken a series of economic actions that will have one impact: creating inflation.<\/p>\n

Inflation is when the price of goods goes up faster than commensurate increases in income. Inflation hurts those living on fixed incomes (that used to be a pretty undefined term for me until I retired from teaching) and those living on the lowest incomes (as wages don\u2019t keep up with costs.) Inflation is something those of us who lived in the 1960\u2019s and 70\u2019s, when gas went from twenty-five cents a gallon to $1.50, remember well \u2013 but recently it hasn\u2019t been a serious concern.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s coming back, and President Trump\u2019s caused it.<\/p>\n

He most recent action is to impose a twenty-five percent tariff on imported steel, and a ten percent tariff on imported aluminum. This \u201cprotective tariff\u201d is designed to raise the cost of imports to make American-made steel and aluminum more competitive. And while there are several concerns with this, particularly US capacity to make those products, the real issue is that it will raise prices for everyone. The breadth of the products effected is astounding: as MSNBC commentator Stephanie Ruhl stated: \u201cEven Hershey\u2019s kisses are made with \u2018love,\u2019 but they\u2019re wrapped in aluminum foil.\u201d<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a Republican versus Democrat fight. Many Democrats, including Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, have long demanded protection for heavy industries like steel. And Republicans have long been the party of free-trade, allowing world market forces to establish prices. Regardless of which side you\u2019re on, one of the likely outcomes of the Trump tariffs is to start an \u201cold fashioned\u201d trade war, with effected countries responding to the US moves by raising taxes on uniquely American products. Already Kentucky Bourbon (made in the home state of Majority Leader McConnell,) and Harley Davidson motorcycles (made in Wisconsin, home of Speaker Paul Ryan) as well as American food exports have been targeted.<\/p>\n

While free-trade versus protectionism is a good academic argument; the reality is if the tariffs are implemented, the costs will be pushed onto consumers. Prices will go up.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s not the only force driving inflation.<\/p>\n

The \u201cvaunted\u201d Republican tax cut is certain to have the same impact. It has \u201ccreated\u201d money, by adding $1.6 trillion into the economy without finding a way to collect it back in taxes.\u00a0\u00a0 And while Republicans claim that the impact on the economy will create a \u201cboost\u201d raising incomes to meet the additional tax burdens (people making more money and therefore paying more taxes,) there is no evidence to show that will occur. The economy has had a steady growth rate of around three percent for several years, that won\u2019t be enough to overcome the deficit they created.<\/p>\n

But what the tax cut does do is shove more money in the economy. And while I\u2019m as happy to see my \u201cpaycheck\u201d increase as the next guy (by having less with-held for taxes) and I\u2019m certainly able to spend the extra, the real effect is to create inflationary forces in the economy. In simple terms: more people spend more money for the same goods, reasonable sellers will raise prices to meet the increased demand.<\/p>\n

Something to be wary of: while the new with-holding tables, slammed into action on a month\u2019s notice, do decrease with-holding so we all \u201cget more money\u201d before the November election, some may be surprised to find that their 2018 taxes didn\u2019t decrease as much as expected, and that they owe money come next year. That\u2019s my situation, so check before you spend it all up front!! <\/em><\/p>\n

The next inflationary step is current Congressional action to remove the restrictions of the Dodd-Frank legislation. This law was passed after the Great Recession of 2008, when the uncontrolled actions of large banks and investment firms created a \u201cbubble\u201d of high earnings. When the bubble burst, the entire economy began to crash. Only huge government bailouts saved us from a full-on Depression of the 1930\u2019s mold.<\/p>\n

Dodd-Frank put tight restrictions on bank lending and investment, and demanded that those institutions had enough actual cash around to cover variations in the market. Now, Congress is working to remove those restrictions.<\/p>\n

While the immediate result will be an increase in the amount of money available for borrowing, probably creating a new housing boom, inevitably (or at least history has shown) the ability to profit will create abuses that will threaten economic stability. What will happen for sure: more money in the economy, and therefore an increase in prices. And it\u2019s not just for homeowners selling, increases in home values means more availability of second mortgage (home equity) loans.<\/p>\n

As homeowners borrow closer to the maximum value of their homes, they become more vulnerable to shifts in market prices. 2008 was the year of the \u201cupside down\u201d and \u201cunderwater\u201d mortgage; Dodd-Frank put controls on some of the processes that created that crisis. An example even today: a commercial on television urges veterans to borrow from a company that can lend them \u201c100% of their home\u2019s value.\u201d That\u2019s great, as long as the value of their home goes up. What if it goes down?<\/em><\/p>\n

And the final inflationary pressure by President Trump is to restrict the labor market. He calls it immigration reform, but his goal is to reduce the number of people in the United States willing to work for lower wages. By doing so, his advisors believe that those jobs will become more competitive, requiring higher wages to fill, and more \u201cAmericans\u201d will be employed.<\/p>\n

This is in an era of four percent unemployment (what many economists call a full-employment figure.) But Trump has tapped into a deep-set view of many Americans that they are working harder for less. He\u2019s not wrong that people feel that way, but it\u2019s not the immigrant from (Honduras, El Salvador, Somalia, Haiti, or wherever) that\u2019s causing it.<\/p>\n

American immigration history shows that the newest immigrants work the \u201cworst\u201d jobs, providing for their families, and that the second generation moves \u201cup\u201d into better employment (an example: Washington Post \u2013 Cactus, Texas<\/a> .) Should jobs that are often done by immigrants: migrant farm labor, roofing and dry-walling in house construction, the factory meat processing noted in the article, go unfilled by immigrants; it would require a substantial pay increase to make it an \u201cAmerican\u201d job. We can argue the right or wrong of low pay and new immigrants (legal or illegal) but today\u2019s reality is that the American economy depends on them. Should President Trump get his way, it would have a huge inflationary impact by driving the costs of those products and services up.<\/p>\n

Prices will go up, and while wages will too, they certainly won\u2019t keep up with the costs. Those whose incomes are restricted (pensions, social security, welfare) will feel the immediate impact, but the end result will be the \u201cquality of living\u201d will get worse for many Americans. Those at the high end of the economy, with incomes based on investments, will do well. Those are the real constituents President Trump serves.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why is Trump Fueling Inflation? The Mueller noose is tightening around the Trump Presidency, but the outcome of the Russia investigation is far from certain, and meanwhile, Donald J Trump is still the President of the United States. As President, he has taken a series of economic actions that will have one impact: creating inflation. … Continue reading “Why is Trump Fueling Inflation”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy is Trump Fueling Inflation : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2018\/03\/06\/why-is-trump-fueling-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why is Trump Fueling Inflation : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why is Trump Fueling Inflation? The Mueller noose is tightening around the Trump Presidency, but the outcome of the Russia investigation is far from certain, and meanwhile, Donald J Trump is still the President of the United States. 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