What Does Manafort Know?<\/p>\n
The Mueller Investigation into the Russia and the Trump Campaign is picking up public momentum. In the past couple of weeks, Mueller has filed multiple indictments, not only building \u201cthe case,\u201d but also building pressure on key witness, Paul Manafort.<\/p>\n
Last week, Mueller indicted thirteen Russians for a \u201cconspiracy against the United States\u201d in manipulating social media to create factionalism, and to generate support for the Trump campaign. While it is unlikely that any of the thirteen will ever stand trial in the US (they would have to be foolish enough to go to a place that shares extradition agreements with the US), the indictments did establish an underlying principle. They answered the question: were laws broken in the 2016 election, and can they be enforced. Mueller\u2019s indictments explained the theory: the Russians were in a conspiracy against the United States to impact and disrupt a critical American Constitutional action: the election of the President. That conspiracy is the legal violation.<\/p>\n
Last week, Mueller also issued additional indictments against Manafort and his junior partner, Rick Gates. These, added to the original ones filed earlier this year, stacked the possible prison time that Manafort or Gates could serve at more than twenty years. Gates then proceeded to ask for an interview with the Mueller team to talk about a plea deal. He lied in that interview, and found himself in even deeper trouble.<\/p>\n
Gates cut a deal this week, agreeing to fully cooperate with the investigation in return for a guilty plea for lying to Federal agents and conspiracy. Manafort was hit with further indictments, and the beginning of a process that could result in his losing his right to bail, forcing him to await trial in jail. Today it is reported that the Mueller team is dismissing several of the other charges against Gates, signaling that they are getting that full cooperation.<\/p>\n
This puts the pressure on Manafort. Gates knows pretty much everything that Manafort knows about their business and he \u00a0was even more involved in the Trump campaign (working there both before and after Manafort\u2019s short tenure.) The noose is around Manafort\u2019s neck; he faces what could effectively be a life sentence if convicted.<\/p>\n
So what does Manafort know? He certainly knows the details of the June meeting with Russian representatives with Kushner and Trump Jr. He was present in the meeting, and would absolutely know what knowledge Trump Sr. had about the meeting. This could be the definition of his conspiracy with the Russians.<\/p>\n
Manafort himself may have been an agent of the Russian government, placed into the Trump campaign. Manafort was indebted to Russian oligarch Oleg Derispaska, a close friend of Putin, owing him $17 million. Manafort through early 2016 was desperately trying to find cash to clear the debt, but was unable to do so. He then joined the Trump campaign free of charge and arranged for a more Russian-favorable plank on Ukraine to be in the Republican campaign platform.<\/p>\n
Even with his brief time in the Trump campaign, Manafort could offer up information about the involvement of key campaign leaders and organizations in the development of the social media strategy, including Cambridge Analytica and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner. This may include cooperation with Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) and Wikileaks as they worked to impact the 2016 election. Donald Trump Sr. is known as a micro-manager in business. If he was micro-managing this portion of the campaign, Manafort would know that as well.<\/p>\n
Manafort may be facing the ultimate choice: stay silent and risk US prison, or agree to cooperate and face Russian retaliation. And while his lawyer continues to \u201cfish\u201d for a Presidential pardon, even that might not be enough to avoid prison. Several states, including New York, are looking at state charges of money laundering, tax evasion, and other financial charges not impacted by the Federal Pardon power. And the current Ukrainian government has lots of questions about $12 million that Manafort may have received from ousted Russian backed strong man Victor Vanukovych.<\/p>\n
It’s a rock or a hard place for the sixty-eight year old. The Mueller team continues to squeeze, and might only take information of the highest level to give Manafort any break at all. What Manafort knows is the key: both to his own future in or out of prison and to the fate of the Trump Administration.<\/p>\n
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