Secretly, many Democrats are taking heart.\u00a0\u00a0The polling, as flawed as it\u2019s proven to be, shows at worst a \u201ctie\u201d between Biden and Trump, and perhaps even Biden ahead, especially in the \u201cswing\u201d states.\u00a0\u00a0Biden himself is proving to be energetic and powerful; cancelling out the entire \u201cdemented and exhausted by age\u201d argument.\u00a0\u00a0The Republicans in the House of Representatives are continuing their \u201cclown car\u201d show, with Marjorie Taylor Green threatening to take the entire House back to days of more votes for Speaker.\u00a0\u00a0Some of her fellow Republicans are literally quitting in disgust.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With only a single vote majority, the MAGA-Republicans are clearly on the edge of losing it. Just one traffic jam on the DC Beltway, and the honorable Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic Minority Leader, could become the first Black Speaker of the House. As Mark Twain said, \u201cNothing is safe while Congress is in session\u201d. Republicans finally stopped the bleeding by going on vacation for two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Trump campaign is short on money. Not only are they being out-raised by Biden\/Harris ($25 million for a single \u201cPresidential fundraiser\u201d with Biden, Obama, and Clinton tonight), but MAGA campaign money is split. Part of the fund is going to pay for the incredibly large legal fees that the twice-impeached, four time indicted, facing 91 felony counts, ex-President accrued. And then there\u2019s the civil penalties. He caught a break in the New York business trial. His actual fine is $475 million, but he \u201conly\u201d has to put up $175 million bond to appeal the case. And then there\u2019s the E J Carroll case, another $91 million bond, payable if Trump loses on appeal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump completed a full takeover of the Republican National Committee. His daughter-in-law is now the co-chairman. Much of the fundraising money the RNC brings in is now split; first to the Trump campaign, second to the political action committee that pays for Trump\u2019s legal bills, and then and only then, the remainder to the RNC. Republicans \u201cdown-ballot\u201d from Trump will find the going tough. The money they might have had for their campaigns instead is going into Trump\u2019s lawyers\u2019 pockets. (Well, maybe: Trump is notorious for \u201csticking\u201d his lawyers and not paying, ask former \u201cAmerica\u2019s Mayor\u201d, the now disbarred Rudy Giuliani).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But there are still \u201ccheap\u201d ways to campaign. If you\u2019re on Facebook with any regularity, you\u2019ll know. There is meme after meme: Trump will lower food prices, Trump will \u201cfix\u201d the border, Biden is \u201cunder fraud\u201d, and, of course, \u201cBuy a \u2018Trump\u2019 Bible\u201d!! It\u2019s insidious \u2013 even if you don\u2019t stay for long, the Trump messaging flashes through your brain. And it costs almost nothing; MAGA supporters just share and share and share. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I suspect that\u2019s happening on all versions of social media. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the Trump campaign is making \u201clemons into lemonade\u201d in court.\u00a0\u00a0Every court date that Trump himself attends, includes a statement going into court, a statement coming out of court, and a statement at lunch break too.\u00a0\u00a0The ex-President gets maybe thirty minutes of free, completely controlled national coverage a day. He\u2019d have to pay millions of dollars that he doesn\u2019t have to replicate that exposure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s what the Trump campaign\u2019s good at: getting their guy free stuff. It’s how he became President in the first place, with no small contribution from MSNBC\u2019s Morning Joe. <\/em>Trump got hours of free time, phoning in and talking to Joe and Mika. And while the show offered Clinton the same opportunity, when that didn\u2019t happen, they continued the lopsided Trump exposure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As Trump himself said, years before he ran for President, the only bad publicity is no publicity. Arguing with Joe Scarborough on the phone in 2015, or calling NBC correspondent Garrett Haake stupid outside of a New York courtroom this week; gets Trump what he needs \u2013 visibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump can\u2019t afford to buy the media; so he uses it. Free time, on Facebook or on CNN moves him along the campaign \u201ctrail\u201d, and keeps his nasty, polarizing message in front of the American people. If MSNBC\u2019s giving him so much time, imagine what Fox or OANN is doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only question I have is a simple \u201cmath\u201d issue.\u00a0\u00a0If the Nation is evenly split, say 45% to 45% between Biden and Trump, then it\u2019s clear the election will be determined by who wins the majority of the remaining ten percent.\u00a0\u00a0Those \u201cswing\u201d voters need persuasion, but most of what Trump is doing simply energizes his base.\u00a0\u00a0He\u2019s not reaching to the middle, he\u2019s putting gas on the fire of the MAGA millions.\u00a0\u00a0I\u2019m sure that\u2019s satisfying to the Trump camp; preaching to the converted.\u00a0\u00a0But I don\u2019t see a \u201ccalculus\u201d that wins the Presidency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"