{"id":6868,"date":"2023-12-26T08:27:21","date_gmt":"2023-12-26T13:27:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6868"},"modified":"2023-12-26T08:27:24","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T13:27:24","slug":"thumbs-on-the-scale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/12\/26\/thumbs-on-the-scale\/","title":{"rendered":"Thumbs on the Scale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stopping Trump<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

More than half of Americans want Donald Trump to \u201cgo away\u201d.  65% believe the criminal charges against him are serious, and 49% believe he should suspend his Presidential campaign (ABC<\/a>).  But, to quote Bill Murray\u2019s stellar performance in the summer camp movie, Meatballs<\/em><\/a>; <\/em>\u201cIt just doesn\u2019t matter\u201d.  Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee for the Presidency in 2024.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump won the Presidency despite losing the popular vote.\u00a0\u00a0He survived the Access Hollywood Tapes, and the Mueller investigation into his political campaign.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u201cGood people, on both sides\u201d and child separation at the border didn\u2019t tip the scales. And neither did the \u201cperfect\u201d phone call to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.\u00a0\u00a0It took a world pandemic and Joe Biden to end his first term as President, and even then, he led his supporters in an attempt to alter the results on January 6th<\/sup>.\u00a0\u00a0He is, and remains, the only former President who faced two impeachments. And the only former President facing ninety-one criminal indictments, both Federal and State.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We looked to the Republican Party leaders, the Justice Department,  and Mitch McConnell and his Senate Republicans twice, to \u201c\u2026rid us of this meddlesome President\u201d.  It took Covid, and Biden, to break the chain in 2020.  But Trump is back again, as outrageous as ever, with a legitimate chance to win the Presidency and become \u201cdictator\u201d, at least for the \u201cfirst day\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Criminal Charges<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The truth of the criminal charges:\u00a0\u00a0disrupting the lawful transition of power, trying to corruptly influence the election in his favor; and stealing and mishandling classified documents; is self-evident.\u00a0\u00a0Justice is incremental, but is inexorably moving against him.\u00a0\u00a0And Trump\u2019s lawyers, legitimately, see delay as their best tactic.\u00a0\u00a0If Trump wins “again\u201d, Federal charges will disappear. The state charges will be placed in abeyance until he leaves the White House (if he leaves).\u00a0\u00a0There will be no justice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So many of us look to the Supreme Court as the institution that might finally stand to the moment.\u00a0\u00a0After all, the Court was the bulwark that blocked the \u201cstop the steal\u201d movement in 2020.\u00a0\u00a0Two cases are to that Court, with hopes that Trump\u2019s illegal actions are punished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One case comes from the Colorado Supreme Court, that ruled Trump was an \u201cinsurrectionist\u201d as defined by the 14th<\/sup>\u00a0Amendment, and therefore disqualified from their ballot.\u00a0\u00a0The other case comes out of Jack Smith\u2019s targeted charges in the Washington, DC District Court.\u00a0\u00a0In that case, the Trump lawyers claim that the President of the United States has \u201csovereign immunity\u201d, a blanket protection from any criminal charges arising through the course of his Presidential \u201cduties\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Since Trump was the President, and the counting of the electoral ballots in Congress was a Federal action, they argue that immunity from prosecution extends to whatever he did leading up to and including January 6th<\/sup>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Tainted Court<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s get an ugly part out of the way first.\u00a0\u00a0Justice Thomas, and to a lesser extent Justice Alito, are \u201ctarred\u201d. They accepted massive funds from conservative millionaires and groups for their own personal use. And Thomas\u2019s wife helped organize the January 6th<\/sup>\u00a0Insurrection.\u00a0\u00a0Both Justices are \u201cconflicted\u201d in a legal sense. They appear improper and biased.\u00a0\u00a0In any other Court in the country, they would recuse themselves.\u00a0\u00a0But they aren\u2019t in any other Court, they are in a Supreme Court that sets its own rules, and has no authority to enforce those rules on their own members.\u00a0\u00a0So all of the Trump cases will be heard by all nine of the Justices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But even the financial \u201cpatrons\u201d of the Justices aren\u2019t necessarily Trump fans.\u00a0\u00a0So it not just the weight of the money that\u00a0\u00a0might sway their view.\u00a0\u00a0Alito, Gorsuch, Barrett, Cavanaugh and even Chief Justice Roberts all owe their exalted positions to one man:\u00a0\u00a0Leonard Leo<\/a>, of the Federalist Society.\u00a0\u00a0Leo and Senator\u00a0Mitch McConnell made it a decades long mission to tilt the ideology of the Supreme Court in their favor; and with the Trump Presidency they cemented a\u00a0\u00a0six to three majority.\u00a0\u00a0The stand that the \u201cSociety\u201d chooses about Donald Trump may be more important than the money, or even the law.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, even if the Supreme Court is corrupt beyond redemption; keep in mind, even the corrupters aren\u2019t all for Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 14th<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Start with the Colorado case.\u00a0\u00a0The 14th<\/sup>\u00a0Amendment was written to protect the \u201cgains\u201d of the Civil War.\u00a0The third section prevented the same people who led the Confederacy from returning to National power.\u00a0\u00a0There were no \u201ctrials\u201d for insurrection, no hangings for Treason.\u00a0\u00a0Even Jefferson Davis, the President of the Confederacy (and former US Senator and Secretary of War) was released from his imprisonment in Fortress Monroe, and ultimately pardoned.\u00a0\u00a0But he was still banned by the 14th<\/sup>\u00a0from holding office again.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From that precedent, it doesn\u2019t take a trial or conviction of insurrection to ban someone from office under the 14th<\/sup>.  A \u201ccommon sense\u201d rule applies:  if they participated in an Insurrection, they are banned.  And that\u2019s what Colorado applied to Donald Trump.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the practical outcome of the Court letting Colorado’s decision stand, is that Trump would appear on ballots in Republican controlled states, and not appear on ballots in Democratic controlled states.\u00a0\u00a0That would widely swing the popular vote, but probably do little to alter the outcome in the Electoral College.\u00a0\u00a0What it would surely do, is magnify the political divide in the Nation. It could, whatever the outcome, make the results unacceptable to huge portions of the electorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Supreme Court will not rule that Colorado was \u201cright\u201d, and that Trump is an insurrectionist.\u00a0\u00a0And they won\u2019t require that an insurrectionist need be \u201cconvicted\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0They\u2019ll sidestep that whole issue.\u00a0\u00a0They will rule that there were \u201cprocedural\u201d errors in Colorado\u2019s decision, that need to be \u201ccorrected\u201d, and that process of \u201ccorrection\u201d will go beyond the 2024 election.\u00a0\u00a0After that, the issue will be moot.\u00a0\u00a0Score Trump 1,\u00a0\u00a0Justice 0<\/strong> \u2013 but a good try by Colorado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Immunity<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

No matter the patrons of the Supreme Court majority, I cannot see them ruling that the President has \u201cblanket immunity\u201d from any actions he takes.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not common sense, nor is it a reasonable outcome of the Constitution.\u00a0\u00a0The entire impeachment\/conviction process is based on removing the President (or other official) so they CAN be tried in the regular Court system.\u00a0\u00a0(This also makes the Trump lawyers\u2019 other claim \u2013 that impeachment trials created a \u201cdouble jeopardy\u201d situation \u2013 bogus<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Jack Smith trial will continue.\u00a0\u00a0But what procedure will the Court use?\u00a0\u00a0They\u2019ve already refused Smith\u2019s request for an expedited hearing in front of the Supreme Court (Trump now 2, Justice 0<\/strong>).\u00a0\u00a0So the immunity question will go to the DC Appellate Courts, who\u2019s\u00a0\u00a0likely to rule against Trump (Trump 2, Justice 1<\/strong>).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, the Supreme Court will have a final say in the matter.\u00a0\u00a0If they determine to hear the case, then Jack Smith\u2019s goal of a trial decision before the election is over (Trump 3, Justice 1<\/strong>). But the Supreme Court may simply refuse a Trump appeal from the DC Circuit, affirming the Appellate decision.\u00a0\u00a0And then the trial begins (Trump 2, Justice 2<\/strong>).\u00a0\u00a0I\u2019m betting that\u2019s the tactic the Supreme Court uses.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Supreme Court won\u2019t openly stand in opposition to Donald Trump.\u00a0\u00a0But they won\u2019t\u00a0\u00a0enable a second Trump Presidency, either.\u00a0\u00a0The flawed Robert\u2019s Court, like the Senate Republicans, will step aside. The trials may go on, but ultimately the burden of Trump is on the votes of the American People, once again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stopping Trump More than half of Americans want Donald Trump to \u201cgo away\u201d.  65% believe the criminal charges against him are serious, and 49% believe he should suspend his Presidential campaign (ABC).  But, to quote Bill Murray\u2019s stellar performance in the summer camp movie, Meatballs; \u201cIt just doesn\u2019t matter\u201d.  Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee for the Presidency in … Continue reading “Thumbs on the Scale”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThumbs on the Scale : Our America - 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