{"id":6687,"date":"2023-09-29T07:37:59","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T11:37:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6687"},"modified":"2023-09-29T07:38:05","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T11:38:05","slug":"battle-for-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/09\/29\/battle-for-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Battle for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

World War II<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The battle in Ukraine goes on. But it\u2019s not the trench warfare we\u2019ve heard about that\u2019s so reminiscent of World War I.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s more like World War II, with battle lines separated by fields of anti-personnel mines (Foreign Policy<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0For the Ukrainian forces to advance against the Russians, they need to first to clear the terrain of millions of mines.\u00a0\u00a0Ukrainian forces are doing so carefully, preserving the lives of their sappers.\u00a0\u00a0They even have \u201cunderwater\u201d sappers, clearing the streams where their forces may need to cross and fight.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of the mobility created by NATO tanks and armored personnel carriers can\u2019t begin until those mines are cleared.  Even though a M-1 Abrams tank is unharmed by anti-personnel mines, the infantry following behind would still be at risk.  Even an anti-tank mine usually doesn\u2019t destroy that vehicle, though it often disables it for a time as the tracks are broken.  But the scope and scale of mining operations is amazing:  over 67,000 square miles of Ukraine is the battlefield (Washington Post<\/a>) and mined, with at least thirteen types of anti-personnel mines and at least thirteen more types of anti-vehicle mines (Human Rights Watch<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Butcher\u2019s Bill<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So for those decrying the \u201cfailure\u201d of the Ukrainian summer offensive, a couple of things to consider.  It\u2019s not over.  The Ukrainian Army has carefully removing the mines, before they sent their precious soldiers across to face the Russian forces.  That sounds like a prudent strategy, especially for a Nation with limited personnel resources, and already high casualties. Russian casualties are near 300,000; including 120,000 killed and 180,000 wounded.  Ukraine has far fewer, with 70,000 killed and 120,000 wounded.  But Ukraine has far fewer people to fill their battalions (New York Times<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past three months, Ukrainian forces have made small gains, particularly along the southeastern front. It\u2019s taken that long to create a \u201csalient\u201d, a bulge into the Russian line around the village of Robotyne (now destroyed), that Ukrainian forces hope to exploit.  Their goal is to \u201cbreakout\u201d of the salient, and drive to the coast of the Sea of Azov.  That would cut the Russian forces in two, with those in the Crimea and Kherson regions split off from direct supply from Russia in the north and east (NYT<\/a>).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winter Comes Early<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It hasn\u2019t happened yet.  It\u2019s taking time and the clock is ticking.  Winter comes early and hard in Ukraine, where the \u201csouthern coast\u201d is the same latitude as Bismarck, North Dakota.   And it doesn\u2019t help that there are delays in the mobile armor Ukraine needs from Poland, and the United States.  Of the 190 US Bradley Fighting Vehicles promised, more than half are already on the battlefield  (Washington Post<\/a>).  But it takes supply to \u201cfeed\u201d a breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the best analogy might be the months after the Normandy Invasion, D-Day, in World War II.  After successfully getting off the beaches on June 6th<\/sup>, 1944, Allied forces took nearly three months to breakout of  \u201chedge row\u201d country, and complete the conquest of Normandy.  They then raced to the German border, arriving in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stalemate not Settlement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The goal is similar for the Ukrainian offensive today:  breakout and race to the coast.  It hasn\u2019t happened yet \u2013 but it\u2019s still possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those in America who say it\u2019s time for a \u201csettlement\u201d, to end the battle \u2013 they are premature.  And for those who decry \u201cit\u2019s time to save lives\u201d; it\u2019s not their lives to save.  Ukraine has an opportunity for victory.  Victory means an end to a struggle against Russia that\u2019s lasted nine years \u2013 since Russia stole the eastern and southern provinces in 2014.  \u201cSettlement\u201d means stalemate, with Russia troops still in parts of Ukraine, and a battle and war simmering for more years and even decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s not just about Ukrainian military success.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s about ending the conflict with a resolution, rather than a compromise.\u00a0\u00a0Should the current Ukrainian offensive succeed, then Russian forces will be in an untenable position.\u00a0\u00a0They will be forced to withdraw.\u00a0\u00a0And should the offensive stop, then Russia will be always poised to reignite the conflict, whenever the whim strikes Putin to re-establish the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who He Is<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Maya Angelou said, \u201cWhen someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time\u201d.  Vladimir Putin has shown us who he is:  a ruthless killer, willing to kidnap a whole generation of Ukrainian children to turn them into Russian soldiers; willing to face the economic wrath of the world so he can rebuild the Soviet Empire.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or to misquote George W Bush:  we can look into Putin\u2019s eyes and see his soul.  And his soul is the soul of Stalin.  If Ukraine is captured, why would he stop?  Poland is next, along with the Baltic Nations; all NATO members, all requiring direct US military intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is paying the price for the whole Western World right now, the price of resistance to Putin\u2019s aggression.  The least we can do is help foot the bill, even when it gets tough, and even when it gets expensive.  Our treasure in exchange for their blood.  It\u2019s better than the alternative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine Crisis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n