Hostage Takers<\/p>\n
At the stroke of midnight, the United States Government was \u201cshut down\u201d last night. And while \u201cshut down\u201d is a fuzzy term, with Post Offices, Parks, Police and many other Federal agencies still functioning; as the spouse of a retired federal employee, I can tell you that the impact of a \u201cshut down\u201d is real. Pay is cut, jobs aren\u2019t done, and the mission of the Federal Government slowly grinds to a halt.<\/p>\n
Conservatives claim this is a \u201cSchumer Shutdown,\u201d after the Democratic Minority Leader of the Senate. Progressives claim this is \u201cTrump\u2019s Shutdown,\u201d after the President of the United States. But this shut down really is the \u201cFreedom Caucus Shutdown,\u201d after the thirty-six hard right conservatives in the House of Representatives, the same folks that brought us the shut down of 2013. And while the Republican majority is giving them the \u201ccover\u201d they didn’t have five years ago, they are doing it again.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how it works. There is a large consensus in both the House and the Senate to pass legislation to take care of the \u201cDreamers;\u201d 800,000 folks who were brought to the United States illegally by their parents. The Dreamers grew up here as Americans: they talk, walk, and act like Americans. They have no other home. But since they weren\u2019t born in the US, they are technically illegal aliens. And while the Dreamers have been an unusually successful group, they have only had a temporary legal status through an executive order under President Obama.<\/p>\n
President Trump, through his Attorney General, removed that protection. There is a large majority of Congress, and the American people, who want Dreamers to have a legal status. Americans don\u2019t want the spectacle of black helmeted ICE Agents hauling them into detention facilities, and sending them to alien countries.<\/p>\n
But not the Freedom Caucus. They are willing to use the Dreamers as hostage to their greater plan of restricting immigration. Joined by Presidential Advisors Miller and Kelly, and a few Senators (Tom Cotton of Arkansas most notably) they are working to re-write American immigration policy. Last week\u2019s disastrous meeting with President Trump, the \u201cshithole\u201d meeting, was part of their efforts. And while they don\u2019t have a majority anywhere, they do have the \u201cHastert Rule.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Hastert Rule was named after former Republican Speaker of the House and acknowledged child molester Dennis Hastert. The Speaker controls all of the bills that can be voted on by the full House of Representatives. Hastert\u2019s rule reads that before a bill can be sent for a full vote, a majority of Republicans must want the bill to pass. So, even if a bill could pass with a majority of Democrats and a minority of Republicans, under this rule the Republican Speaker can\u2019t allow it to come to a vote.<\/p>\n
There is a majority of the House of Representatives that would vote for a DACA bill, which would legitimize Dreamers. There is a majority of the Senate (probably more than 80) who would vote for that as well. But because the Freedom Caucus in the House is able to keep a \u201cmajority of the majority\u201d of Republicans from voting for the bill, under Hastert, it can\u2019t come up.<\/p>\n
Unless Republican Speaker Paul Ryan decides to take a risk, and break the Hastert rule. It\u2019s been done before: the last time the specter of a shutdown came up, then Speaker John Boehner broke the rule, and avoided the closure. Boehner soon resigned from the Congress: the price he paid for keeping the government open. It\u2019s not likely that Ryan would make the same stand.<\/p>\n
President Trump ran for office with an overriding claim to fame: he could \u201cMAKE A DEAL.\u201d While he has squirmed back and forth on DACA and immigration, he could broker a deal which could end the shut down. It is unlikely that the Freedom Caucus would try to break such an arrangement, and even if they did, Trump could provide Ryan with the cover he needs to break the Hastert Rule.<\/p>\n
How long will a government shut down last? How long will it take for Ryan, Trump and McConnell to deal with their own party\u2019s problems; and let a DACA bill, that would overwhelmingly pass, come up for a vote? The answer to those questions will determine who \u201cowns\u201d this shut down, and who are the hostage takers.<\/p>\n
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