{"id":6485,"date":"2023-06-26T06:54:12","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T10:54:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6485"},"modified":"2023-06-26T06:54:38","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T10:54:38","slug":"crossing-the-don","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/06\/26\/crossing-the-don\/","title":{"rendered":"Crossing the Don"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alea Ecta Est<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When I was a college freshman, one of my classmates Tony and I would study for exams together. Denison University left the classroom buildings open all night; they were quiet and air conditioned.  It was better than our residence, Crawford Hall. It was constantly vibrating with music, the sheer volume fueled by cheap beer and \u201cOhio Green\u201d marijuana . And, no air conditioning back then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we could go to a classroom, smoke cigars, and focus on the political science or history exam coming up.\u00a0\u00a0The cigar smoke guaranteed we\u2019d have the room to ourselves as we focused on nuclear deterrent theory or Revolution in the 20th century. (Smoking in the building was \u2018OK\u2019 back in 1975).\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0About three in the morning, our brains were packed: ready to spew out volumes of knowledge in the thin blue books for our written exams.\u00a0\u00a0When we were done, we walked home through the darkness to Crawford.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No more cramming needed.   And as we passed the Chapel, we \u201cperformed\u201d our exam ritual. We balanced on the sundial just below the Chapel, overlooking a blacked out Granville, and chanted Caesar\u2019s words as he crossed the Rubicon and invaded Rome itself:  \u201cAlea ecta est – the die is cast\u201d. There was no turning back, no early morning cramming. We were ready, committed, prepared. Then we threw coins into the darkness above Granville, our commitment and our \u201csacrifice\u201d to the exam \u201cGods\u201d.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It worked – we both had excellent grades. And when we our paths diverged, I continued the tradition, at least the \u201cAlea ecta est\u201d part, into graduate school and life.\u00a0\u00a0It marked the time when there was no \u201cturning back\u201d, just a decision made moving on into the future.\u00a0\u00a0I crossed a lot of personal Rubicon\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No Response<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cWagner Group\u201d is an ugly part of Russian foreign policy.  I first heard of them in 2018, when a \u201cRussian\u201d force of thousands of soldiers attacked a small group of American Special Forces protecting a gas plant in Eastern Syria.  There was a four-hour pitched battle. US Air power turned the tide in favor of the Special Forces.  The outcome: hundreds of Russian forces killed and zero American casualties (NYT<\/a>).   Afterwards, I kept waiting for a Russian response.  After all, with hundreds of Russians killed by force of US arms,  there had to be a reaction, a response, to that loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wagner Group<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But there really wasn\u2019t.\u00a0\u00a0It turned out that the Russians were \u201cmercenaries\u201d, part of a private \u201carmy\u201d hired and commanded by one of Vladimir Putin\u2019s allies in the Russian oligarchy,\u00a0Yevgeny Prigozhin.\u00a0\u00a0He was a part of the St. Petersburg \u201ccabal\u201d that brought Putin to power in the first place, and gained billions of rubles through his Kremlin connections.\u00a0\u00a0In return, he built a private army, the Wagner Group, to do the international \u201cdirty work\u201d Putin needed to further his foreign policy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They were \u201cmercs\u201d in a \u201cprivate army\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0But more importantly they could be sacrificed on far away battlefields and few in the motherland would miss them: ex-soldiers and convicts.\u00a0\u00a0It was kind of like the French Foreign Legion, without their training or the control of the French Government.\u00a0\u00a0Prigozhin\u2019s Wagner Group was his own.\u00a0\u00a0And if hundreds died in the Syrian desert, no one cared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Wagner Group relies on utter brutality.\u00a0\u00a0Video evidence exists of their disgusting tortures throughout the world.\u00a0\u00a0They show bound men with their hands and feet smashed with sledge hammers, or their genitals cut off with box cutters.\u00a0\u00a0And that\u2019s exactly the reputation Prigozhin wanted for his \u201carmy\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The Wagner Group gives no mercy; they simply charge ahead, die, or kill.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

A year and a half ago, Putin\u2019s ill-fated invasion of Ukraine fell apart quickly. The \u201cfirst strike\u201d; a seventeen mile column of tanks, was left stalled and vulnerable on the road to Kyiv.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The Russian Army was unprepared for the powerful Ukrainian response.\u00a0\u00a0And as the regular army casualties mounted and the momentum stalled, Putin called on his friend to send in the Wagner Group.\u00a0\u00a0A commitment of that size required Wagner to \u201cscale-up\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Prigozhin sent recruiters to the Russian prisons with an offer:\u00a0\u00a0if you can survive six months of battle, you can have your\u00a0\u00a0freedom.\u00a0\u00a0What the prisoners probably didn\u2019t know is that survival was a fifty-fifty proposition, at best.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of the recent battles in Ukraine, particularly the months long struggle around the city of Bahkmut, were fought by the Wagner Group.\u00a0\u00a0Prigozhin seemed to struggle with the regular Russian Army, demanding supply and support that wasn\u2019t coming.\u00a0\u00a0He became more and more public in his dissent, surprising in the usually iron-gripped Putin world.\u00a0\u00a0Prigozhin literally called out by name the Russian Commanding General, Gerasimov, and the Defense Minister, General Shoigu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Die is Cast<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

According to Prigozhin, Gerasimov and Shoigu launched an air strike in Ukraine, aimed at his own Wagner Group troops.\u00a0\u00a0So, he turned his troops around, leaving Ukraine and marching to the Southern Headquarters of the Russian army in the city of Rostov on the Don River.\u00a0\u00a0Once he \u201ccrossed the Don\u201d, he literally \u201ccrossed the Rubicon\u201d of old:\u00a0\u00a0he was in open rebellion to the Russian government, and to his \u201cfriend\u201d, Vladimir Putin.\u00a0\u00a0And then he headed north, sending troops to threaten Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe die is cast\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Putin called Prigozhin out as a traitor.\u00a0\u00a0But the real surprise was that there was no resistance to the Wagner forces as they roared up the M-4 highway towards the capital.\u00a0\u00a0To all the world, it looked as if the Wagner Group would drive straight into Moscow, and Prigozhin would stride into the Kremlin to demand his former friend act.\u00a0\u00a0Finally, Russian forces were concentrated in Moscow, and a pitched battle seemed only hours away.\u00a0\u00a0But then, surprisingly, the Wagner convoy stopped, within 120 miles of Moscow.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA deal\u201d was cut, negotiated by Belarus President Lukashenko.\u00a0\u00a0The Wagner Group forces would return to their bases in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0Prigozhin would go into \u201cexile\u201d in Belarus.\u00a0\u00a0Wagner troops were \u201cpardoned\u201d and put under the control of the Russian army.\u00a0\u00a0Perhaps, though we\u2019re not sure, Gerasimov and\/or Sochi may be \u201cout\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deal with the Devil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard to imagine how such a deal will hold.\u00a0\u00a0Putin is a dictator, holding onto power through military strength.\u00a0Prigozhin demonstrated Putin\u2019s actual weakness, especially with the failure of Russian forces in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0Putin\u2019s natural response would be revenge.\u00a0\u00a0How many \u201cenemies\u201d of Russia fall out of windows, or mysteriously die of nuclear poison, or are shot from cars in a \u201crandom attack\u201d? \u00a0How can Putin allow this most overt rebellion to go without response?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prigozhin crossed his \u201cRubicon\u201d. There is no turning back.\u00a0\u00a0He has signed his own death warrant with Putin.\u00a0\u00a0Is it possible that this rebellion was a spur-of-the-moment reaction?\u00a0\u00a0Or did the Wagner Forces expect other regular Army groups to join in the rebellion?\u00a0\u00a0We don\u2019t know the answer to those questions.\u00a0\u00a0What we do know is that Prigozhin demonstrated the weakness of Vladimir Putin to the world, something that Putin cannot tolerate.\u00a0\u00a0And we also know that these actions will make the Russian forces standing against Ukraine even weaker.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe die is cast\u201d.  We just don\u2019t know what they say \u2013 yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alea Ecta Est When I was a college freshman, one of my classmates Tony and I would study for exams together. Denison University left the classroom buildings open all night; they were quiet and air conditioned.  It was better than our residence, Crawford Hall. It was constantly vibrating with music, the sheer volume fueled by cheap … Continue reading “Crossing the Don”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nCrossing the Don : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/06\/26\/crossing-the-don\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crossing the Don : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alea Ecta Est When I was a college freshman, one of my classmates Tony and I would study for exams together. 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