{"id":6390,"date":"2023-06-04T11:26:16","date_gmt":"2023-06-04T15:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6390"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:25:06","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:25:06","slug":"primary-primer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/06\/04\/primary-primer\/","title":{"rendered":"Primary Primer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Sorry it&#8217;s been a few days.  I spent three days at the State Track Championships, officiated  three exciting pole vault competitions, and had three days of ninety degree heat with some lightning and even hail added in.  It was fun, but  it&#8217;s good to be writing again.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Covid World<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>First, let\u2019s get this out.&nbsp;&nbsp;It feels way, way, way too soon to be talking about Presidential elections.&nbsp;&nbsp;It seems like just a few months ago that President Biden won the 2020 election, in the haze of the Covid pandemic.&nbsp;&nbsp;We strive to forget the shutdowns, the masks, and the \u201cdrive-in\u201d rallies; somehow those memories seems to have a different time dimensional warp.&nbsp;&nbsp;Looking back, I think some of them may be erased from my memory in a \u201cCovid fog\u201d, along with my sense of smell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here we are in 2023, \u201conly\u201d eighteen months before the election.&nbsp;&nbsp;Barring disaster, Joe Biden will be the Democratic candidate for President.&nbsp;&nbsp;But there is an open race for the Republican nomination.&nbsp;&nbsp;For Republicans, it\u2019s a simple question; choose the past, or choose the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Past or Future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We all know what the past is:&nbsp;&nbsp;Donald Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;And Trump still has a firm grip on the Republican Primary voters:&nbsp;&nbsp;53% of them support him, far more than he had in 2016 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/05\/24\/politics\/cnn-poll-republican-primary-field\/index.html#:~:text=Trump%20is%20the%20first%20choice,well%20as%20several%20other%20candidates.\">CNN<\/a>) and 20% more than any other candidate.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Like it or not, he still has a stranglehold on the base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of the other candidates are trying to \u201cparse\u201d the Trump base:&nbsp;&nbsp;DeSantis and Scott, Haley and Hutchinson, former Vice President Pence and business entrepreneur&nbsp;Vivek Ramaswamy&nbsp;(kind of a harder edged Andrew Yang).&nbsp;&nbsp;As DeSantis says over and over again, they all have Trump\u2019s MAGA ideology, without Trump\u2019s legal baggage.&nbsp;&nbsp;And there sure is a lot of baggage, likely to get even heavier as more indictments come down this summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The indictments are the \u201celephant in the Republican room\u201d, just as Biden\u2019s age stresses Democrats.&nbsp;&nbsp;Sure the MAGA base will make the argument that the New York indictment is a \u201cpolitical hit job\u201d, an issue already \u201cadjudicated\u201d in the Federal Courts.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the Georgia indictment(s), and the Federal classified documents indictments soon to come, will create a heavier load.&nbsp;&nbsp;And, should the Department of Justice actually move ahead with an Insurrection indictment, the Nation will be just as polarized as we were that day in 2021.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Slice and Dice<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It might be that \u201cthe politics\u201d of indictment actually works in favor of Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;MAGA ideology is one of \u201cvictimhood\u201d, and there\u2019s nothing more victim-like than having multiple charges in multiple courts for multiple crimes.&nbsp;&nbsp;His base may respond by \u201chaving his back\u201d, and try to give him (and some of themselves) the \u201cprotection\u201d of the Presidency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The political risk that all of those \u201cTrump-like (lite)\u201d candidates take is that they can keep MAGA, without keeping Trump.\u00a0\u00a0As long as Trump remains in the field though, that seems unlikely.\u00a0\u00a0Trump\u2019s 2016 \u201cslice and dice\u201d strategy was to divide the field by winning a third of the votes, and leave the multiple other candidates to slice the remainder up.\u00a0\u00a0It worked:\u00a0\u00a0Trump didn\u2019t receive a majority vote win until April, after the nomination was already won in the March primaries.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s the setup that Trump\u2019s strategists would like to see again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then there is the \u201cfull\u201d alternative to Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;Chris Christie, former Republican Governor of&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cblue\u201d New Jersey, is preparing to jump in.&nbsp;&nbsp;Christie is no \u201cmoderate\u201d, but he definitely takes a more traditional conservative business-Republican view.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Christie will need to make the argument to the Republican primary voters that winning a general election against Biden is more important than&nbsp;&nbsp;either strict adherence to MAGA ideology; or having the confidence of the former President himself.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No Labels<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And lurking behind all of that is the \u201cNo Labels\u201d movement.&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cNo Labels\u201d is a center-right movement who are considering a third party run for President.&nbsp;&nbsp;Think of them as old fashioned:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cBlue Dog Democrats\u201d meet \u201cRockefeller Republicans\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;They portray the existing political parties as extreme, and promise a middle ground like the \u201cgood old days\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;John Kasich (R), Liz Cheney (R), Joe Manchin (D), former Senator and Vice Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman (D), and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R) are all possible choices for the \u201cNo Labels\u201d ticket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Democrats argue that \u201cNo Labels\u201d (unintentionally?) will create a general election version of the Trump 2016 \u201cslice and dice\u201d strategy.&nbsp;&nbsp;Our National elections are tilted towards Republicans in the first place, with the structure of both the Electoral College process and the Congressional tie-breaking procedures slanted to gerrymandered Republican states.&nbsp;&nbsp;While \u201cNo Labels\u201d is highly unlikely to have a winning candidate, they are very likely to split the \u201cmoderate\u201d vote, leaving a Trump candidacy with a winning path through our institutions.&nbsp;&nbsp;Think of the impact of Ralph Nader on the 2000 election, where his minimal vote was enough to put George W Bush in office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Doubt<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For those who wonder if a re-match of 2020 is inevitable there is one small shining speck of doubt.&nbsp;&nbsp;In the New York civil trial where EJ Carroll sued Trump for sexual impropriety, one of the jurors noted that he got almost all his \u201cnews\u201d from a right-wing podcaster.&nbsp;&nbsp;Despite getting a Trump-slanted view of politics and the world, the juror still joined in the unanimous five million dollar verdict against Trump.&nbsp;&nbsp;Perhaps the MAGA \u201cmonolith\u201d for Trump has more cracks than we know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or that might just be another Covid induced brain fog.&nbsp;&nbsp;Either way, welcome to 2024. Or, here we go again.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorry it&#8217;s been a few days. I spent three days at the State Track Championships, officiated three exciting pole vault competitions, and had three days of ninety degree heat with some lightning and even hail added in. It was fun, but it&#8217;s good to be writing again. Covid World First, let\u2019s get this out.&nbsp;&nbsp;It feels &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/06\/04\/primary-primer\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Primary Primer&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Primary Primer : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/06\/04\/primary-primer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Primary Primer : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sorry it&#8217;s been a few days. 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