{"id":6289,"date":"2023-04-20T09:38:55","date_gmt":"2023-04-20T13:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6289"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:58","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:58","slug":"fake-crisis-real-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/04\/20\/fake-crisis-real-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Fake Crisis \u2013 Real Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

 <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Artificial Barrier<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d is an artificial barrier.  It was created by Congress, and it can be altered, expanded, or abolished by Congress. But while it exists, it poses a serious hazard to the American economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The concept of the debt ceiling is pretty simple:  Congress sets a hard \u201cceiling\u201d on the amount of debt the United States Government can have.  Once the government reaches that limit, it can no longer borrow money to cover expenses.  Since the US Government is in debt to the tune of almost $32 trillion, and is running a negative budget this year of $1.3 trillion (CBO<\/a>), the practical effect of \u201chitting the ceiling\u201d is the US Government will stop paying its debts.  And part of that is payments for the US Government bonds that finances debt.  In short, the US Government will default on its loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One thing to get very clear, is that the debt ceiling is not a \u201cbudgeting\u201d item.  Congress operates on a \u201cdouble entry\u201d system.  They pass a law, say to build a dam.  Then they pass a second law, to spend the money to build that dam.  Twice Congress had the opportunity to NOT spend the money, the actual dam law, and then the dam finance law.  So all of the spending that causes the US Government to reach a \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d is money already twice agreed to in the US Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dishwashers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Or to put it in more personal terms, like most Americans, we carry some debt.\u00a0\u00a0We have a mortgage on the house, we have a car loan, education loans, and we have a few credit cards with debts on them.\u00a0\u00a0Every time we spend money creating a debt, we make a choice.\u00a0\u00a0Jenn and I chose to buy a new washing machine (the old one broke).\u00a0\u00a0We spent the money to buy it.\u00a0\u00a0(We chose not to replace our broken dishwasher \u2013 yet. After all, there\u2019s only two of us\u2026)\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if we said, one day, that we have hit our \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d, and we aren\u2019t paying on the loans or the credit cards anymore.  After all, we\u2019ve hit a \u201cceiling\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a couple of weeks there\u2019d be silence from the creditors.  Then would come the flurry of notices, failures to make payments, threats of debt collection and perhaps even foreclosures.  And ultimately, the full force of the law would be used to require us to pay our debts.  And meanwhile our credit rating would be trashed, and no one would allow us to borrow money from them, through loans or credit, again.  Or, if they did, they\u2019d charge a huge cost, high interest, to protect them from the risk of our defaulting again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interstate Highways and Aircraft Carriers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If we didn\u2019t want to hit the ceiling, we shouldn\u2019t have spent the money in the first place.\u00a0\u00a0Once we spent the money, and made the commitment to pay it back, anything other than paying it back is reneging on the deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the practical impact of the US Government \u201creneging\u201d on its debts?  No one is going to send the \u201cworld sheriff\u201d to foreclose on the Capitol Building.  Unlike our personal debts, they won\u2019t be evicting the military from their bases, aircraft carriers, or repossessing the Interstate Highway system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen is that folks will no longer buy the US Bonds that finance the trillions of dollars of debt, at least at the interest rate the Treasury Department is offering.  So Treasury will have to pay more in interest to sell the bonds, costing us (both the you and me \u2018us\u2019, and the United States \u2018us\u2019) more money.  In the long run, just like personally trying to borrow money after defaulting, the \u201ccost\u201d of that money will be higher because the risk is higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That will echo throughout our financial system, as the price to borrow money goes up.  Mortgages, car loans, credit card interest rates, home improvement loans, second mortgages and flexible interest rates all will jump. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, of course, since the Government can\u2019t spend money, they can\u2019t pay workers.  We\u2019ve been through Government shutdowns in the past (for other reasons).  Millions of workers go without paychecks, and government functions come to a standstill.  Those \u201cessential workers\u201d who are required to work, do it with the \u201cfaith\u201d that they will be paid in the future, but in the meantime, they can\u2019t pay their personal bills.  And things we depend on, from the Internal Revenue Service to the National Parks, close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Brink<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Congress created the debt ceiling to \u201cmake a point\u201d.  It put every legislator \u201con notice\u201d that the debt was going up.  It started in 1939, after six years of the New Deal legislation to combat the Great Depression.  But it was raised for the Second World War, lowered after the War was over, then raised again for the Korean War.  Since 1960, it\u2019s been raised seventy-eight times, forty-nine times under Republican Presidents, and twenty-eight times under Democratic Presidents (US Treasury<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point obviously wasn\u2019t made.\u00a0\u00a0The first debt ceiling law in 1939, placed the maximum at $45 billion.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both parties used the debt ceiling as a negotiating chip in the past.  But neither Party allowed the US to default on its obligations, because of the danger of catastrophic economic consequences.  In the end, leadership has avoided, \u201cCutting off our nose to spite our face\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we live in unprecedented times.  Our era of political polarization, the tenuous hold the Republicans have on the House of Representatives, and more significantly, the slim margin that Kevin McCarthy holds on the Speakership, brings us much closer to the brink.  McCarthy knows:  Republican John Boehner lost his Speaker\u2019s seat because he \u201cgave in\u201d on a debt ceiling negotiation with President Obama.   McCarthy has an even narrower margin of support than Boehner had.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure we\u2019ve got until sometime in June before we fall off the cliff.  The \u201cwizards\u201d of the Treasury can manipulate the debts and borrowing to keep us clear for that long.  But, come June, we will hit a \u201chard ceiling\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We, the American people, are depending on our leadership (on both sides) to find a way to step back from disaster.  Hold your breath, it\u2019s going to be a scary \u201cride\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Artificial Barrier The \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d is an artificial barrier.  It was created by Congress, and it can be altered, expanded, or abolished by Congress. But while it exists, it poses a serious hazard to the American economy. The concept of the debt ceiling is pretty simple:  Congress sets a hard \u201cceiling\u201d on the amount of debt … Continue reading “Fake Crisis \u2013 Real Impact”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nFake Crisis \u2013 Real Impact : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/04\/20\/fake-crisis-real-impact\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fake Crisis \u2013 Real Impact : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Artificial Barrier The \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d is an artificial barrier.  It was created by Congress, and it can be altered, expanded, or abolished by Congress. 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