{"id":6275,"date":"2023-04-11T09:22:34","date_gmt":"2023-04-11T13:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6275"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:56","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:56","slug":"not-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/04\/11\/not-the-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Not the Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Carville<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

James Carville is a strange guy.  He is the famous (infamous) political operative behind the Bill Clinton successes:  but Carville\u2019s bald dome, often covered by a Marine or LSU baseball cap; angular body and almost incomprehensible Louisiana accent makes him \u2013 well \u2013 eccentric.  Carville made his reputation in the 1990\u2019s Clinton campaigns, but since has built a career as a progressive international campaign operative.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carville is known for \u201cCarville-isms\u201d.  And one of his most quoted applies to Presidential campaigns:  \u201cIt\u2019s the economy, stupid\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic History<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Carville knew in 1992 and 1996 that the condition of the American economy played into the hands of his empathetic but flawed candidate.\u00a0\u00a0In 1992, President George HW Bush was fresh off victory in the First Iraq War, but had a nation suffering in recession.\u00a0\u00a0That recession triggered the third party candidacy of Ross Perot, who likely syphoned enough votes from the incumbent to clinch a Clinton victory.\u00a0\u00a0War victories aside, it was, \u201c\u2026the economy stupid\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Kerry ran into that same struggle in the Presidential election of 2004.  The Nation was three years past 9-11.  While George W Bush showed tremendous leadership at that time, by 2004 we were mired in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Kerry, a Democrat who made his original reputation as an anti-Vietnam War veteran, was leading in many polls up to the last few weeks of October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, after the economic crash of the 9-11 attacks, the United States recovered nicely.  The economy was humming along in 2004 for the Bush Administration, and Bush was re-elected to the Presidency in spite of his foreign policy misadventures.  It was, \u201c\u2026the economy, stupid\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s Economy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With all of that, you\u2019d think Republicans could feel good about the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections. Biden managed to ride out the Covid economic disaster, but the \u201ctreatment\u201d that  sustained the economy through 2020 and 2021 is now exacting a cost.  The stock market that dropped over 15,000 points in 2020, almost half its value, rebounded back to within 2000 points of the 2019 peak.  Unemployment dropped from over 10% to a fifty-year low of less than 4%.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the price of the \u201ccure\u201d was inflation.  Prices surged up, first from the imbalance of supply and demand, then from increases in wages.  While the rate of inflation has slowed now, Americans are still looking at soaring energy, housing, and food prices.  If that remains the case next year, it would be great material for Republican Presidential candidates. \u201cIt\u2019s the economy stupid\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one thing any Republican candidate should do, is focus on that issue.  Anything else becomes a distraction to the shared experiences that every American citizen can relate to:  buying groceries, filling up the gas tank, or paying the electric bill.  Whether Republicans can really do anything about that is questionable, but they can definitely lay the blame at Biden\u2019s feet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s not what\u2019s happening. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wedge Issue<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Republicans have opened a \u201cwhole can of worms\u201d (worms really do come in cans –\u00a0Amazon<\/a>) of \u201cwedge issues\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Wedge issues divide voters, pushing them to take an absolute position on one side or another.\u00a0\u00a0There is little room for moderation when it comes to wedge issues, instead, there is polarization with a chasm of emptiness in between.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three issues where Republicans have \u201cdoubled down\u201d on divisive issues:  abortion rights, guns, and race.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump appointed Supreme Court erased fifty years of women\u2019s rights by overruling the Roe abortion decision.  Instead of setting a new standard, the Court \u201cpunted\u201d the issue, sending the question of if-or-when a woman can get an abortion to the individual states.  So now the United States is a mish-mash of abortion regulations.  Some states are even attempting to regulate the travel of their citizens, criminalizing attempts to leave the state to get abortion care.  And, now in Texas, a renegade Federal Judge is trying to nationally outlaw one of the two primary drugs used for medical abortions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Republican stand on abortion led \u201cRed-Red\u201d Kansas to vote down a state constitutional amendment to ban abortions, elected an entire slate of Democrats to the Michigan executive branch, and last week turned the determining seat in the Wisconsin Supreme Court to a progressive.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s been a political \u201closer\u201d, with the exception of motivating the 30% Republican base.\u00a0\u00a0And it has motivated even more the Democratic base, women and younger voters, to come out and make their opposition heard.\u00a0\u00a0Last I checked, you can\u2019t win with only 30% (that\u2019s a \u201cDahlman-ism\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guns and Minorities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Republican stand on guns is doing a similar thing.\u00a0\u00a0While most Americans, including gun owners, would accept moderate regulation of who can have guns, the Republican state legislatures have gone to the far extreme.\u00a0\u00a0States like Ohio and Florida (and Tennessee and Kentucky) are voting full \u201cConstitutional Carry\u201d laws, with no requirements at all for publicly carrying a firearm.\u00a0\u00a0This absolute position is pushing moderates to the Democratic side, in light of the almost daily dose of mass shootings.\u00a0\u00a0You can\u2019t win with only 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Republican actions on minority and LGBTQ issues are polarizing to the extreme.  Last week\u2019s action by the Tennessee state legislature, expelling two Black legislators, is reminiscent of the 1950\u2019s and 60\u2019s segregation fights.  And constant attacks on city governments, local prosecutors (like Manhattan and Atlanta) all have racial overtones.  Add that to the drumbeat of anti-LGBTQ legislation sweeping through Republican controlled legislatures nationwide, and again the Republican\u2019s seem to be the party of extremists, doubling-down to their base but ignoring everyone else.  You can\u2019t win with only 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big Picture<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So here we are, 18 months out from the 2024 elections.  From this vantage point it looks like a rematch of Biden and Trump, one that ought to be winnable for Republicans should the economic situation remain the same.  But their focus on all of these polarizing issues takes their message \u201coff the ball\u201d.  Sure it might be good for maintaining their base, and it certainly for the Republican primaries.  But they are missing the big picture.  They can\u2019t win with 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s fine with me.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carville James Carville is a strange guy.  He is the famous (infamous) political operative behind the Bill Clinton successes:  but Carville\u2019s bald dome, often covered by a Marine or LSU baseball cap; angular body and almost incomprehensible Louisiana accent makes him \u2013 well \u2013 eccentric.  Carville made his reputation in the 1990\u2019s Clinton campaigns, but since has built … Continue reading “Not the Economy”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nNot the Economy : Our America - 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