{"id":6273,"date":"2023-04-10T09:16:54","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T13:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6273"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:55","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:55","slug":"how-good-are-they","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/04\/10\/how-good-are-they\/","title":{"rendered":"How Good Are They?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russian Gamble<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been more than a year since Russia, a sovereign nation, invaded Ukraine, another sovereign nation.  The world, and clearly Russian President Putin most of all, thought the war would be over in a few days.  His goal was a lightning strike at the capital, Kyiv; take out the President and the government; and replace them with a Pro-Russian Ukrainian regime.  You can be sure he had an entire government ready to take office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lightning strike, so quick that the only reaction that NATO and the United States could make would be to strengthen the NATO countries\u2019 borders, and protest loudly in the world.  Putin was willing to accept the punishment, economic sanctions, in return for total control of Ukraine.   NATO would be faced with a  de-facto Russian victory.  Their only military alternative would be all-out war, something that no one in NATO would legitimately contemplate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Called Bet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As we now know, the Russian \u201cgamble\u201d failed.  Everyone, including Putin himself, over-estimated the strength of the Russian Army.  We saw the results:  Russian commanders using cell-phones that targeted their location for Ukrainian attack; Russian forces unprepared for anything more than an \u201cexercise\u201d in Ukraine; Russian logistics completely unable to supply their forces.  As it turned out, the strategy was \u201clightning strike\u201d or nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, as it turned out, the Ukrainian forces were willing to sacrifice for their homeland.  Russia with the second most powerful army in the world, failed against the 27th<\/sup> ranked power, behind Thailand, Spain and Indonesia (CEO<\/a>).  That resistance gave the United States and NATO the opportunity to pour support into Ukraine, creating the supply chain their Army needed to withstand a long-term slog against the tired Russian forces.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

World War I<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

What was supposed to be Putin\u2019s \u201cbrilliant strike\u201d both at Ukraine and NATO, turned into an unending slog of forces.  It wasn\u2019t like the great victorious tank battles of the Soviet forces in World War II.  It turned into the ugly slow-motion slogging of trench warfare and artillery of World War I.  The Soviets ultimately won the Second World War, but the First cost the Russian monarchy their thrones, and their lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So here we are, on the cusp of the second set of \u201cspring campaigns\u201d.  Russia is trying to consolidate the existing gains in the eastern province of Luhansk and Donetsk, and even more importantly, keep the southern province of Crimea.   Ukraine, on the other hand, is looking to take back as much territory as possible, including perhaps invading into Crimea, where the Russian Southern Fleet is based at Sevastopol.  Putin could find a way to justify losing parts of the Eastern Provinces, but he can\u2019t stand losing Crimea and his only warmwater port.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the United States and NATO can celebrate \u2013 Russia is not the formidable foe we all thought they were.  But we shouldn\u2019t forget that while the Russian forces are still using the battle tactics of mass attack \u2013 throwing untrained troops into the slaughter to overwhelm their opponents \u2013 there are still some things Russians are very good at.  One of those is internet mis-information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

St Petersburg<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We know Russia was able to intervene in the  US Presidential election in 2016, sowing discontent and amplifying one side against the other.  Russian social media agents even arranged real rallies, and worked to reduce Democratic voter turnout.  Their success may not have been determinative:  the 2016 election was so close that almost anything might be the critical turning point.  But there is no question that the operatives in St. Petersburg had a significant impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They haven\u2019t gone away.   This week several classified US documents appeared in \u201calternative\u201d social media.  The documents showed Ukrainian troop concentrations and supply status, and were labeled \u201cTop Secret\u201d.  But the documents oddly have specific errors included in them, errors that would not have been part of the original Pentagon produced reports (NPR<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stolen or Fake<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Are they really stolen documents, taken from the Pentagon?  Or were they somehow leaked by the United States, either through carelessness, or to pursue some intelligence objective.  Or are they doctored by Russian Intelligence and placed by the St. Petersburg team.  Is this just another Russian operation to make the US look foolish, unable to hold onto its most classified secrets?  Is the goal to drive a wedge between the US and the Ukrainians, or the rest of NATO? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because \u2013 if these were real Top Secret Documents \u2013 why would there be obvious errors in them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surprise<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Russian tank forces aren\u2019t what they used to be.  And while Russian soldiers are as brave as ever, their commanders still seem willing to wantonly waste their lives on the battlefield.  Russian killed and wounded in Ukraine are estimated to be near 200,000 (NYT<\/a>).  Russian communications have improved since the beginning of the conflict, but at the cost of as many as fourteen Russian Generals.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Russian cyber-warfare capabilities are still powerful, one of the top five most powerful in the world (Secure World<\/a>).  Don\u2019t be surprised to find that the Top Secret document story is more complicated than just a \u201cspy\u201d in the Pentagon.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukraine Crisis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n