{"id":6212,"date":"2023-03-15T10:35:57","date_gmt":"2023-03-15T14:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6212"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:50","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:50","slug":"marking-territory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/03\/15\/marking-territory\/","title":{"rendered":"Marking Territory"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Crimea<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Black Sea is a hotbed of military activity today.  It is \u201cRussia\u2019s inland sea\u201d, mostly controlled by the Russian Navy sailing forth from their only ice-free base of Sevastopol in Crimea.  If you wonder why Crimea, the southern peninsula that is part of the Ukraine, is so important to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the base at Sevastopol is the answer. The Russians first built there in 1772.  The famous Tennyson poem the \u201cCharge of the Light Brigade<\/a><\/em>\u201d (\u201cHalf a league, half a league, half a league onward, all in the Valley of Death\u2026\u201d) was about a British attack to control the port in 1854.  They failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So while it may be realistic for President Zelenskyy of Ukraine to talk about reuniting his invaded nation, it\u2019s truly unlikely that Crimea will be a part of that union.\u00a0\u00a0Before the first Russian invasion in 2014, the base at Sevastopol was a Russian sector within Ukraine (kind of like the US base at Guantanamo in Cuba).\u00a0\u00a0The land bridge between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine is very narrow, just a couple of miles, and incredibly well defended.\u00a0\u00a0Russia is just not likely to give it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bosporus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Regardless, outside the territorial waters twelve miles beyond national borders, the Black Sea remains international territory.  That includes not only the waters, but the airspace above the waves.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Access to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean is through the narrow straits that divide Europe and Asia at Istanbul, Turkey.  The Bosporus looks more like a big river, perhaps the Mississippi, rather than the connection between two seas and continents.  And it runs through the heart of the city.  Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, particularly military access.  So while the Russian fleet dominates the Black Sea, they can\u2019t necessarily get out to the rest of the world.  And the rest of the world can\u2019t get to them without Turkish permission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gathering Intel<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The United States does not have any warships in the Black Sea at this time.  But we do have intelligence gathering aircraft flying overhead, keeping track of Russian activity both in Crimea and along the battlelines of Ukraine beyond the horizon.  That intelligence in part goes to the Ukrainian forces, and is a continual irritant to Russian forces.  So it shouldn\u2019t be a surprise that Russia doesn\u2019t like it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When I think of drones, I think of my neighbor getting overhead shots of our houses, or really cool race videos from the cross country meet.\u00a0\u00a0But the American intelligence drone, the MQ9 Reaper, is a rear-propeller driven aircraft, 36\u2019 long with a 70\u2019 wingspan.\u00a0\u00a0It is fully capable of carrying weapons; designated a \u201chunter\/killer\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The drone also has a large array of intelligence gathering instruments.\u00a0\u00a0It is directed by a remote operator in real-time through satellite links, and flies much like any other aircraft.\u00a0\u00a0It costs $32 million apiece, and the US has over 300 of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pissing in Corners<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, the two Russian fighter aircraft started \u201cmessing\u201d with an MQ 9 Reaper over the Black Sea.  At first, they did high-speed maneuvers around the slower propeller driven aircraft. They literally \u201cpissed\u201d on the drone; dumping aerosolized fuel in its path.  Then finally, one of the SU-27 fighters approached the drone from the rear and hit the propeller.  The drone fell into the Black Sea, but not before all of the intelligence data and programming was erased in an emergency \u201cdump\u201d.   The SU-27\u2019s, including the one that collided with the drone, were able to land in Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russians state that the drone was in Russian claimed airspace.  The United States, with full video evidence of the Russian actions, say that the fighter pilots were unprofessional and basically \u201ccowboying\u201d around the drone.   But it\u2019s unlikely that they were \u201ccowboying\u201d without permission from their superiors, and the US has lodged full diplomatic complaints with the Russian foreign ministries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US and NATO have avoided this direct interaction since the Russian invasion began over a year ago.\u00a0\u00a0And the US downplayed this incident by putting it fully in the diplomatic field rather than triggering a military escalation.\u00a0After all, it\u2019s \u201conly a drone\u201d, albeit a $32 million one.\u00a0\u00a0If there was a pilot, it would have been a very different story.\u00a0\u00a0The Russians know that as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequences<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This is a serious \u201cgame\u201d, for the Russians, for NATO, and for the United States.  Like similar incidents with Chinese aircraft over the South China Sea, the US is declaring the right to transit international waters both by sea and by air.  It all comes down to the actions of the men who are piloting the planes, in the cockpit, or remotely from some obscure base back in the United States.  Either way, it\u2019s not just about the cost of the aircraft \u2013 it\u2019s about the risk of escalation, reminiscent of the Cold War over Europe.  All sides have to recognize that danger, or mistakes will happen.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know the type of pilots the United States has, not only in the cockpits, but on the remote controls.\u00a0\u00a0I know they are highly trained, incredibly competent, and well aware of the consequences of their actions.\u00a0\u00a0But who knows the Russian (or Chinese) pilots, or\u00a0\u00a0the intent of their commanders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s dangerous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine Crisis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n