{"id":6176,"date":"2023-02-28T07:57:26","date_gmt":"2023-02-28T12:57:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6176"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:48","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:48","slug":"ukraine-and-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2023\/02\/28\/ukraine-and-america\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine and America"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Polling<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

President Biden had a \u201cgood\u201d last week.\u00a0\u00a0He made a secret trip to Kyiv, followed by a Roosevelt-like speech in Poland. He called on the world to defend democracy in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0It all showed a President at the height of his powers in foreign policy, standing up for principle and justice against a foreign aggressor.\u00a0\u00a0The European nations applauded his address. And the world watched Biden paying tribute to the fallen Ukrainian warriors alongside President Zelenskyy at the Kyiv memorial, as air raid sirens sounding once again in the capitol.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he returned to the United States to an odd poll.\u00a0\u00a0According to an NBC News survey, Americans are split about fifty-fifty about whether to give more weapons to Ukraine (NBC<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0That\u2019s hard to imagine; even most Republican leaders are in favor of continuing to support Zelenskyy.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, they are busy challenging President Biden to send even more aid to Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0They want US fighter jets, F-16\u2019s, sent to defend the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Rump<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There is a rump caucus\u00a0\u00a0(properly positioned, I might add \u2013 in the rump) of the Republican Party that differs.\u00a0They are few in leadership, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, but they are amplified by\u00a0Fox\u00a0<\/em>Commentators Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard.\u00a0\u00a0They\u00a0\u00a0take the Russian view of the Ukraine invasion, excusing Russian aggression because “…they had legitimate\u201d security concerns.\u00a0\u00a0And their basic point is; we just shouldn\u2019t care about what\u2019s happening in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s a waste of money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even Florida Governor Ron DeSantis determined that the Russians don\u2019t represent a security threat to NATO\u2019s Eastern European partners.\u00a0\u00a0That despite Putin ally and former Russian President\u00a0Medvedev\u00a0threatening to \u201cpush back\u201d the borders of Poland and other NATO states in a speech last week (Reuters<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0It’s hard to see how influential the \u201crumps\u201d are.\u00a0\u00a0Events in Ukraine seem very cut and dried, and it takes an inordinate amount of mainstream media skepticism to believe that \u201ceverything\u201d we see about Ukraine is a \u201cwoke lie\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My point is that I don\u2019t believe the polling.  I just don\u2019t think most Americans believe that we should leave Ukraine high and dry, including most folks who would align themselves with Donald Trump.  I don\u2019t believe they are taken in by the Russian propaganda that Tucker and Tulsi are spouting, or the nonsense said by Greene on the floor of the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian Influence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s talk about the Russian influence in the United States.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We discovered after the 2016 election that the Russians had outsized influence on the United States through social media.\u00a0\u00a0Throughout all the investigations;\u00a0\u00a0Muller, Manafort, the first Trump impeachment and Giuliani\u2019s flailing efforts in Ukraine:\u00a0\u00a0we\u2019ve discovered the incredible influence of Russian money on the American political system.\u00a0\u00a0It even reached into the FBI, and the New York chief of counter-intelligence corrupted by Oleg Deripaska, the same Putin ally who paid Paul Manafort (NPR<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So there is the obvious question:  is Russian money still influencing American politics?  Is that driving the position of the \u201cfar-right\u201d Republicans and their Fox <\/em>allies?   What we do know for sure, that the MAGA Republicans have an outsized influence on the Republican Party primaries, and therefore on the entire political process.  Many of the prospective Republican candidates for President are trying to gain traction with Trump voters, hoping that Trump himself will somehow decide not to run for the 2024 nomination.  The battle to inherit those voters is all dependent on what the former President decides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weapons to Use<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

What about the other side with the Republicans (and some Democrats), demanding that F-16\u2019s and M1 Abrams Tanks immediately arrive in Ukraine?\u00a0\u00a0The Abrams are ultimately on the way, but the F-16\u2019s remain on hold.\u00a0\u00a0Both of those most advanced weapons systems require intense and lengthy training.\u00a0\u00a0The F-16\u2019s, for example, require a bare minimum of nine months training, even for experienced combat pilots (Luke AFB<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0There is no public evidence that Ukrainian pilots are already enrolled in that training, though it\u2019s possible that they are.\u00a0\u00a0Fifty Ukrainian pilots have already been identified for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The M1 Abrams tank takes months to master as well \u2013 even for seasoned tankers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US will supply the tanks and probably the planes as well.\u00a0\u00a0But even better, the US is enabling Ukraine to get German Leopard Tanks and the more familiar MIG 29 and SU 24 Fighters from former Soviet countries now in NATO.\u00a0\u00a0The Ukrainian forces already know how to operate those systems, and they will have an immediate impact on the battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden\u2019s War<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The drumbeat in the American media is already beginning:  this is Biden\u2019s War.  And the media is also raising the pressure \u2013 will Americans support Biden even if this war drags on through the 2024 Presidential campaign?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My bet is that America will.  Not only are the Ukrainians impressive on the battlefield, but also in the electronic \u201cwarfare\u201d of social media.  And besides all of that \u2013 they are in the right in their battle with Russia, and Russia is in the wrong.  I believe most Americans see that, and will stand beside them until the end.  And they\u2019ll stand beside the President\u2019s support as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine Crisis Essays<\/h5>\n\n\n\n