{"id":6004,"date":"2022-12-05T08:37:28","date_gmt":"2022-12-05T13:37:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=6004"},"modified":"2023-07-13T11:24:31","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:24:31","slug":"the-election-bomb-revisited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/12\/05\/the-election-bomb-revisited\/","title":{"rendered":"The Election Bomb Revisited"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This original essay was originally published in July. The US Supreme Court will hear the case on Wednesday, December 7th, and it’s worth looking at again. IF the Supreme Court agrees with this radical theory, it could change the outcome of elections for years to come.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to Class<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There is a bomb set to blow up the entire election of 2024. It could make the Presidential votes of the citizens of the United States unimportant. The gerrymandered state legislatures could decide the election, without referring to the popular vote count. And it would all be \u201clegal\u201d. The fuse is already lit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To understand that panicked warning, there\u2019s a lot of explaining to do. So I need to take you back to class, to that early morning American Government (or POD) class, coffee cup in hand, with a chalk board and books instead of Smart Boards and computers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cSchool House Rock\u201d version of our government is pretty simple.  There are three branches: the legislative, the executive, and the judicial.  The legislative writes the laws and the executive takes those laws and enforces them.  The Judiciary makes sure that those laws \u201cfit\u201d with other laws and the US Constitution, in a process called judicial review.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I was your teacher, you might remember a candle in a dark classroom, as President John Adams signed the documents creating the \u201cmidnight judges\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0That action started the sequence of events ending in the Supreme Court case Marbury v Madison<\/em>. In that decision, the Supreme Court took the ability to determine whether Congressional actions are Constitutional, judicial review.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it doesn\u2019t \u201chave\u201d to be that way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gerrymandering on Steroids<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The process of drawing legislative districts so that one party is specifically advantaged is “Gerrymandering”.\u00a0\u00a0It was named after Elbridge Gerry, the Governor of Massachusetts in 1812. He signed a bill creating a district that looked like a salamander to guarantee a Democratic\/Republican victory (that’s the Party that evolved into today’s Democrats).\u00a0\u00a0The newspapers called it \u201cGerrymandering\u201d, and it has been an American political tradition ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gerrymandering went on steroids with the development of advanced computing. It’s no longer a matter of this section trends to one party or the other. Computer modeling creates absolutely specific maps to maximize advantage, down to the street level or even specific addresses. Want to dilute the other party\u2019s power? Make sure that their supporters are divided into multiple districts. Want to strengthen your own power? Draw districts to guarantee your base is \u201cin charge\u201d. Need to see an example \u2013 check out the map of Ohio\u2019s Fourth Congressional District in 2020, represented by Jim Jordan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>
\n

Ohio’s 4th Congressional District 2020 – more of a Duck than a Salamander<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

After the 1965 Voting Rights Act was passed by Congress, the US Supreme Court ruled that while districts could be Gerrymandered for political gain, they couldn\u2019t be drawn to prevent racial minority candidates from winning elections. That was 1995 in Miller v Johnson. <\/em> So the rule was pretty simple: when Ohio Republicans drew the Fourth District, it held up to Court scrutiny because it wasn\u2019t \u201cracially\u201d based. But when it was demonstrated that North Carolina specifically divided black communities to weaken their voting power, it was unconstitutional, at least until 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saved in Court<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In that year the Supreme Court majority, led by Chief Justice Roberts, stated that Federal Courts would no longer rule about Gerrymandering. He \u201ckicked that\u201d to State Court jurisdiction for judicial review. They would have final say over the actions of the state legislatures in drawing maps, and in making other election decisions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the 2020 election, both the state and federal courts confirmed the popular vote. The desperate Trump campaign went to them first. In more than sixty cases, \u201cStop the Steal\u201d was debunked and dismissed. Even judges appointed by President Trump, including on the US Supreme Court, dismissed Trump\u2019s claims against the valid election results. After Trump lost there, he went to the other tactics we heard about in the January 6th Committee hearings. One was to place extreme pressure on election officials to change results. Another was to convince state legislatures to ignore the popular vote and replace Biden electors with Trump’s. That all lead to the Insurrection of January 6th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Eastman Plan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In that final push to overturn the election, lawyer John Eastman (of the \u201cGreen Bay Sweep\u201d fame) put forward a radical theory of the American Constitution, called the \u201cIndependent State Legislature\u201d (ISL).\u00a0\u00a0It stated that the US Constitution gave state legislatures the exclusive power to determine how federal elections are conducted.\u00a0\u00a0He based this concept on Article I, Section 4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The times, places and manner of holding elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations, except as to the places of choosing Senators.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eastman theorized that the language was specific, and that the state courts or constitutions had no place in ruling on how the legislatures exercised that power. The argument is simple: if a state legislature, say Georgia, said that Donald Trump won, regardless of what the popular vote in the state was, then neither the Georgia state courts nor the Georgia state constitution could be used to overturn that decision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(If you think a state legislature can\u2019t ignore the state Supreme Court or the state Constitution – remember the DeRolph school funding decision in Ohio? The Court ruled the funding process unconstitutional- but the legislature refused to change it. That was twenty-five years ago, and the process still hasn’t changed). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

School House Rock<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Back to \u201cSchool House Rock\u201d for just a second. Eastman states that the Courts have no power of judicial review over elections, because the US Constitution doesn\u2019t give them the specific power in Article I, Section 4 to review federal election decisions. So the three co-equal branches, aren\u2019t; and the legislature is unchecked when it comes to those decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cISL\u201d theory flies in the face of traditional American government, and the precedent established by\u00a0Marbury v Madison\u00a0<\/em>at the very beginnings of our Federal system.\u00a0\u00a0It requires a restricted view of the US Constitution, only viewing the actual text in that specific section without looking at the rest of the document, or the history that followed it.\u00a0\u00a0In any other time in our history, going all the way back to the Marshall Supreme Court in 1801, it would have been laughed out of the courtroom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bomb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But we aren\u2019t in any other time.  Today\u2019s US Supreme Court is in the hands of \u201ctextualists\u201d who are sympathetic to the \u201cblack and white\u201d arguments that lawyers better than Eastman are making.  On Wednesday they will hear Moore v Harper, <\/em>arguing that the North Carolina Courts have no place in deciding the legality of Gerrymandered districts in North Carolina.  They have no place, because, according to ISL, the legislature has the exclusive power to determine election decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decision will be published sometime in 2023.  It\u2019s about Gerrymandering, but the ramifications would apply to election laws in every state.  And, as we now know, the current Supreme Court majority isn\u2019t afraid of overturning precedent, or taking radical historic stands.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if those sixty courts didn\u2019t have a chance to rule on \u201cStop the Steal\u201d?\u00a0\u00a0What if those few election officials who stood up against changing the results, didn\u2019t have court backing?\u00a0\u00a0The Trump\/Republican Party tried to pack state legislatures and election offices with \u201cStop the Steal\u201d believers in the 2022 elections.\u00a0\u00a0Some of them will be the legislators \u201cin charge\u201d in 2024.\u00a0\u00a0They will decide if the election results are \u201cwrong\u201d, and send their own slate of electors for President, this time with legislative approval, to be counted in the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moore v Harper <\/em>is the fuse.  If the Court rules for ISL, the bomb will go off in 2024.  By then, it will be far too late to avoid the blast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This original essay was originally published in July. The US Supreme Court will hear the case on Wednesday, December 7th, and it’s worth looking at again. IF the Supreme Court agrees with this radical theory, it could change the outcome of elections for years to come. 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