I used to be a \u201cpoll watcher\u201d. I knew all of the ins and outs of finding the most recent polls for any specific race. And I was a poll \u201cbeliever\u201d. I thought I had a good understanding of how pollsters reached their conclusions. But the last few years, and particular the last few weeks, show how wrong I was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Polls are based on \u201cpre-conceptions\u201d of what the voting public will do. If the pre-conceptions are wrong, then so are the polling results. It happened in 2020 (Biden was over-estimated, the rest of the Republican ticket under-estimated) and now again in 2022 (national \u201cmodels\u201d didn\u2019t work). So I\u2019m letting go. I\u2019m not checking the polling \u201cpulse\u201d at Real Clear Politics<\/em> and 538 <\/em>anymore. I trust my own intuition more than a trust theirs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I spent the morning listening to \u201cother Republicans\u201d (not Trump) speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas from last weekend. It was an early look at the Republican 2024 Presidential slate: DeSantis, Christie, Pompeo, and Pence among then. And all of them pointed out that Donald Trump wasn\u2019t good for the Republican Party. They highlighted the poor quality of candidates that Trump foisted on the Party in 2022; folks like Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker. They never \u2013 never said anything about Trump being a threat to the American democracy or the Constitution. He was just a \u201cbad leader\u201d who picked losers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And that\u2019s the rub. My intuition, backed by the polling I no longer trust, says that about 30% of Americans are committed to the personhood of Donald Trump. That same intuition tells me that about 35% of Americans would vote for the proverbial \u201cYellow Dog\u201d rather than vote for Trump. And that leaves the remaining 35% of Americans that I just don\u2019t understand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To me, Donald Trump is an existential threat to America. He is the man who led an insurrection, one that came perilously close to overthrowing our Constitutional system. He did that in full public view, exhorting his millions of social media followers to come to Washington, then openly sending them to the Capitol to force the Congress to throw out the confirmed Electoral votes. There\u2019s a lengthy list of things that Trump did in his Presidency that I disagree with. Many of them are unforgiveable \u201cmortal sins\u201d in my mind. But to threaten the Constitution itself should be a \u201cmortal sin\u201d to everyone \u2013 and the fact that it\u2019s not makes me crazy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I hear all of those Republican leaders tell their Party that they should turn from this \u201cbad leader\u201d and electoral \u201closer\u201d, and chose them (of course). But there is still the what-if question. What-if Trump still wins the Party\u2019s nomination? They all say, from Mitch McConnell and Bill Barr on down, that faced with the choice of a Democrat who supports the Constitution, and a former President who demonstrably does not: they will vote for the former President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That raises the question: what is the existential threat posed by the Democrats, so dangerous that it somehow over-shadows the danger posed by a second Trump Presidency? Joe Biden is a moderate Democratic President, and it\u2019s likely that if he wasn\u2019t the nominee (he will be), that the next generation of Democrats will moderate as well. But, to those other Republican leaders, that moderation must be worse than direct, fundamental threats to the Constitution. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Or is this something else? Perhaps \u201cwinning, power, money\u201d is more important than our Constitution itself. Or, to be charitable, perhaps the Pompeo\u2019s and McConnell\u2019s believe that our Constitution is so strong, so based, that it can survive another Trump. And meanwhile, they can take their power and money literally, \u201cto the bank\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\nBad Leader<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The Threat<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Winning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n