{"id":5961,"date":"2022-10-30T10:07:52","date_gmt":"2022-10-30T14:07:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5961"},"modified":"2023-06-11T11:51:35","modified_gmt":"2023-06-11T15:51:35","slug":"polling-error","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/10\/30\/polling-error\/","title":{"rendered":"Polling Error<br>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I\u2019m back \u2013 a little.&nbsp;&nbsp;I\u2019m a one fingered typer, my dominant hand still incased in a sling,&nbsp;&nbsp;But I had to say SOMETHING this morning, even if it\u2019s just a comment -so here it is!!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was a history and government teacher for twenty-eight years. I wrote thousands of tests and quizzes on all sorts of subjects &#8211; from the intricacies of the Electoral College to the strategies of the Cold War. One thing I learned: it was a mistake to ask the same question over and over again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was easy to fall into a trap:&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201cWho was the first President,\u201d followed later by, \u201cwhat was Washington\u2019s most important job,\u201d followed by, \u201cwho won the first Presidential election\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;It penalized students who might know everything else, but missed that point &#8211; and unfairly benefitted those who got just that one. I learned to write tests that evaluated a balanced sampling of the subject. It just made sense.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s Sunday morning, and I\u2019m watching the \u201cSunday Shows\u201d.  ABC is leading with their NATIONAL POLL of voters. They have made a HUGE discovery: 28% of Americans are worried about the economy, and 26% are worried about inflation. Abortion rights takes a distant third on the list at 16%.&nbsp;&nbsp;The commentator even added it together, intoning:&nbsp;&nbsp;\u201c\u202656% of Americans are worried about economic issues, only 16% about abortions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pollsters fell into the trap. They asked the same question twice.&nbsp;&nbsp;They could have asked it three times &#8211; adding maybe if the price of gas is important. Because inflation is a subset of the economy &#8211; the subset most people are worried about.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Americans aren\u2019t dramatically concerned about the improving GDP, or the historically low unemployment rates, or the improving stock markets. They aren\u2019t even too crazy about the rising mortgage rates. That\u2019s \u201cthe economy\u201d. No &#8211; it\u2019s increasing prices, even though many are seeing increasing wages as well.&nbsp;&nbsp;And it is a big deal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;Big enough that it doesn\u2019t need to be \u201cdouble tested\u201d to make a Sunday Show talking point.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m back \u2013 a little.&nbsp;&nbsp;I\u2019m a one fingered typer, my dominant hand still incased in a sling,&nbsp;&nbsp;But I had to say SOMETHING this morning, even if it\u2019s just a comment -so here it is!! I was a history and government teacher for twenty-eight years. I wrote thousands of tests and quizzes on all sorts of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/10\/30\/polling-error\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Polling Error<br \/>&#8220;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Polling Error : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/10\/30\/polling-error\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Polling Error : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I\u2019m back \u2013 a little.&nbsp;&nbsp;I\u2019m a one fingered typer, my dominant hand still incased in a sling,&nbsp;&nbsp;But I had to say SOMETHING this morning, even if it\u2019s just a comment -so here it is!! 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I wrote thousands of tests and quizzes on all sorts of &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Polling Error&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/10\/30\/polling-error\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/m.facebook.com\/Dahlmanonline-610417212502642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/m.facebook.com\/Dahlmanonline-610417212502642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-30T14:07:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-11T15:51:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/IMG_3564-e1488996194684.jpg?fit=480%2C640&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marty Dahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@martydahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@martydahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marty Dahlman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marty Dahlman\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5fa8c1b0305cf5f1f3633225843e621c\"},\"headline\":\"Polling Error\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-30T14:07:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-06-11T15:51:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":369,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5fa8c1b0305cf5f1f3633225843e621c\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/10\\\/30\\\/polling-error\\\/\",\"name\":\"Polling Error : Our America - 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