Ohio has voted \u2013 at least for the moment.\u00a0\u00a0Due to re-districting manipulations, we still have to choose the party candidates for state Senate and House.\u00a0\u00a0But, our political \u201cclubs\u201d have chosen the other candidates.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The good news for Democrats \u2013 Nan Whaley, former Dayton Mayor won the nomination for Governor, and Congressman Tim Ryan for Senate.\u00a0\u00a0(I saw Ryan yesterday on Morning Joe.\u00a0\u00a0He\u2019s pumped, and he\u2019s channeling Zelenskyy in an olive-drab T-shirt!!).\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n But that\u2019s not all the good news. The Republican \u201cclub\u201d narrowly picked \u201cHillbilly Elegy\u201d author and investment manager JD Vance to run against Ryan for Senate. Republicans had choices; including some \u201cnormal\u201d middle of the road candidates, like Jane Timken or Matt Dolan. Or they could have picked a perennial candidate remodeled as \u201cPro-God, Pro-Guns, and Pro-Trump\u201d Josh Mandel. Or the guy that Mandel went \u201cchest-to-belly\u201d with on a live state wide debate, Mike Gibbons. Instead, they went for Donald Trump\u2019s personally anointed choice \u201cJP Mandel\u201d (Vance). <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the general election, He\u2019ll give away the \u201cmiddle ground\u201d to the T-Shirt clad, working class, \u201cit\u2019s all about China\u201d Ryan. It won\u2019t be easy \u2013 Ohio never is for a Democrat. But if Sherrod Brown can win in Ohio against Mandel, then Tim Ryan has a good shot against \u201cElegy Boy\u201d. It\u2019s a great matchup for the Dems. (By the way, read the book or watch the movie, \u201cHillbilly Elegy\u201d. It\u2019s a good story. Then watch JD Vance live. I guarantee you\u2019ll be disappointed). <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Republican sanity made a comeback though, with the re-nomination of Governor Mike DeWine to run for a second term.\u00a0\u00a0DeWine is \u201cold-school\u201d Republican (and old aged at 75), once a US Senator and State Attorney General.\u00a0\u00a0And, from my side of the fence, he did a pretty good job handling the Covid crisis, in spite of a legislature that wanted to be maskless and packed together.\u00a0\u00a0DeWine knew when to fight, and also to when give up before the Legislature eviscerated his authority.\u00a0\u00a0His one flaw: he let Ohio Public Health Director Amy Acton take all the heat when the pressure was on, and let her fall on her sword for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\u2019s not too much more I like about DeWine.\u00a0\u00a0Under his leadership, Republicans took $60 million in bribes from First Energy, resulting in the state picking up a multi-billion dollar invoice for the old First Energy nuclear reactors.\u00a0\u00a0DeWine turned on his loyal Sheriffs Association friends when he supported unlimited and unlicensed conceal\/carry.\u00a0\u00a0And DeWine was first in line for restrictive abortion legislation, all of which is likely to go into effect when the Supreme Court kills the\u00a0Roe\u00a0<\/em>decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Against DeWine is Nan Whaley, the forty-six year old former Mayor of Dayton.\u00a0\u00a0She made a strong positive impression on the state, leading Dayton through the mass shooting in 2019, and doing a good job of revitalizing a city that lost most of its key industries in the 1990\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0Whaley is personable, progressive, and primed to be Ohio first woman governor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n DeWine should command in the race, but the far-right is still angry:\u00a0\u00a0about masks, about restrictions, about zoom learning and vaccination and testing requirements.\u00a0\u00a0So it remains to be seen how many of those folks will step aside from the DeWine race.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not that they\u2019ll vote for Whaley instead, but they might just overlook the Governor\u2019s race all together.\u00a0\u00a0If the \u201cTrump voters\u201d refuse to vote for DeWine, that\u2019ll hurt.\u00a0\u00a0And if the Tim Ryan race draws a big traditional Democratic turnout, and\u00a0Roe<\/em>\u00a0hits the suburban \u201cswing districts\u201d both\u00a0\u00a0Ryan and Whaley have a shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s Ohio, a state that twice voted for Barack Obama, then voted twice for Donald Trump. Every statewide office is held by Republicans but one, Sherrod Brown in the US Senate. If Florida is purple, just barely Republican by a percent or two, then Ohio is \u201cmagenta\u201d (thanks to the old Crayola Box of my childhood) \u2013 almost red, but not quite. There still is a chance for Democrats in Ohio, but it needs to be a \u201cperfect storm\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Democrats run the cities:\u00a0\u00a0Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Toledo, Columbus, Dayton, Cincinnati.\u00a0\u00a0But the Republicans own the suburbs outside of the cities, and the vast tracks of farmlands in between.\u00a0\u00a0The current balance leans Republican.\u00a0\u00a0But suburban cracks are appearing, particularly in the exploding housing developments around Cincinnati, Dayton and Columbus.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201csoccer families\u201d didn\u2019t like Donald Trump, and some slipped towards the Democratic side.<\/p>\n\n\n\nOld School<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Residual Anger<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Magenta<\/h3>\n\n\n\n