{"id":5533,"date":"2022-04-27T08:45:46","date_gmt":"2022-04-27T12:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5533"},"modified":"2022-04-27T08:46:07","modified_gmt":"2022-04-27T12:46:07","slug":"desperate-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/04\/27\/desperate-moves\/","title":{"rendered":"Desperate Moves"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Blood and Treasure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

My Mom used to have an expression, \u201cDon\u2019t cut off your nose to spite your face\u201d.  It was one of those sayings from her English childhood, and it took a while for me to figure it out.  But it finally made sense, your face won\u2019t look \u201cbetter\u201d without your nose, so no matter how mad you may be at your face, don\u2019t cut it off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

International sanctions are pushing the Russian economy to its limits.\u00a0\u00a0Sure the Russians, are trying to compensate; emptying the coffers to prop up their currency, the ruble.\u00a0\u00a0But they are struggling, missing most of their imported consumer goods, and facing a long-term issue of replacing all of the weaponry their expending in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the failed conquest goes on, more and more materials are being consumed.\u00a0\u00a0Wars cost blood and treasure, and while Russian military strategy has always been \u201clong on\u201d blood, willing to sacrifice their soldiers, they still need\u00a0\u00a0\u201ctreasure\u201d to continue the fight.\u00a0\u00a0Russian casualties are estimated at over 15,000 killed in the two-month struggle, eight times the amount the US lost in the twenty-year war in Afghanistan (Forbes<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural Gas Economics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Russia is the world leader in exporting natural gas at almost 200 billion cubic meters a year. The United States is a far second, near 150 billion.  The main consumer of Russian natural gas is Europe, with several countries, including Serbia and Norway, importing 99% of their supply (Aljazeera<\/a>).  The major leaders of the European Union, Germany (49%), Italy (46%) and France (24%) all use Russian gas (Statista<\/a>).  And while the United States doesn\u2019t import Russian natural gas, the US does import Russian oil.  It represents 8% of total US imports (NBC<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So in our inter-connected world, some of the treasure that Russia needs is supplied by those who stand most opposed to the Russian invasion. The nations of NATO and the European Union are committed to reducing their dependence on Russian resources.  But in the meantime, Russia is still receiving payments for the gas and oil they export to the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The nations of Europe are scrambling to develop strategies to move away from their dependence on Russian gas.  The United States pledged to help, increasing exports of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) which is converted to natural gas in Europe (Reuters<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mis-Calculation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Today, Russia announced that they are cutting off natural gas sales to Poland and Bulgaria.  Their excuse:  in compliance with the international sanctions, Poland and Bulgaria are refusing to pay Russia for the gas in Russian rubles.  And due to the sanctions, Russia is unable to convert foreign currencies.  So they are cutting those nations \u201coff\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s goal is to create division in the currently solid wall of opposition to the invasion of Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0Russia is reminding not just Poland and Bulgaria \u2013 but all of Europe \u2013 that they need Russian energy for their economies.\u00a0\u00a0Were they to cut off Germany, the German economy would immediately go into recession, even though they are already in the process of \u201cweaning\u201d themselves from energy dependence on Russia\u00a0\u00a0(Reuters<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Vladimir Putin miscalculated the world response to his Ukrainian invasion from the outset.  Putin seemed to think that the rest of the nations would protest \u201cloudly\u201d, but ultimately acquiesce to his actions.  He believed that Ukraine was Russian \u201cinternal security business\u201d.  And he has allies in that view, including Senator Rand Paul here in the United States.  But, as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made clear yesterday in a Senate hearing, Ukraine is a sovereign nation, that should have the right to determine its own course of action and alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Putin was surprised by the world reaction to his invasion.\u00a0\u00a0And he was even more surprised by the Ukrainian resistance.\u00a0\u00a0What was going to be a two-week strike at Kyiv, taking the capital and chasing the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy away, has turned into a slogging battle on a three hundred mile front in Eastern Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0With the increasing help of the Western world, Ukraine may even defeat the vaunted Russian Army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cutting<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Poland is ready.  They are already prepared to replace the Russian natural gas, even though it will cost their people more.  It doesn\u2019t hurt that it\u2019s spring-time in Europe, and natural gas needs are dropping anyway.  And Bulgaria is finding alternative sources as well.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The one nation that absolutely needs Russia to sell natural gas, is Russia.\u00a0\u00a0Without the profits from that leading export, the Russian military will be so far behind in \u201ctreasure\u201d they will never make up the equipment losses in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0As US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said yesterday, US goals now are not only an intact Ukraine, but a permanently weakened Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s cutting off his nose, to spite his face.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n