{"id":5504,"date":"2022-04-14T10:00:01","date_gmt":"2022-04-14T14:00:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5504"},"modified":"2022-04-14T10:00:27","modified_gmt":"2022-04-14T14:00:27","slug":"26-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/04\/14\/26-days\/","title":{"rendered":"26 Days"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Victory Day<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On the 9th of May, 1945, German General Dietrick Von Saucken\u2019s Second Army surrendered to  Soviet forces, ending the month long battle for Berlin, and World War II in Europe.  Almost 200,000 soldiers died in the battle, with at least 20,000 civilian deaths as well (though accurate civilian numbers were impossible to know).  It was the triumph of Soviet military power over the Nazis, the final \u201ccomeback\u201d from the defeats of 1941 and \u201942, when Nazi troops stood at the gates of Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

May 9th is celebrated today in Russia simply as \u201cVictory Day\u201d.  Originally it was the victory of Communism over Nazism, now the victory of Russia over the German fascist regime.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin is acutely aware of the symbolism of \u201cVictory Day\u201d.  It\u2019s why Russian propaganda about the current Ukraine invasion claims that Russian troops are trying to \u201ccleanse Ukraine of Fascists\u201d.  When Russian troops knocked on civilian doors on Bucha, they demanded to know where the \u201cNazis\u201d were.  Many Ukrainian civilians were executed for being \u201cNazis\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s what motivated Russia\u2019s conscript Army, living up to their great-grandfather\u2019s stories of The Great War against the Nazis.  Those soldiers thought that\u2019s what the invasion of Ukraine was all about. And it\u2019s why there\u2019s a current moral issue in the Russian Army has now.  The soldiers discovered that the Ukrainians weren\u2019t \u201cNazis\u201d at all, but more like their friends and neighbors back at home.  Instead of heroes rescuing Ukrainians from fascists, they realized that they are invaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deadline for Victory<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But the \u201cVictory Day\u201d story is still the one that Russians are seeing on their media.  Gaining \u201cvictory\u201d by May 9th is the unwritten deadline Putin has set for his military commanders.  But since the Ukrainians stopped the \u201cblitzkrieg\u201d offensive to Kyiv, and shown that there will be a stubborn defense of every inch of Ukrainian soil, what \u201cvictory\u201d means to Putin has changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He cannot conquer Ukraine.  So he must find an alternative \u201cvictory\u201d to give the Russian people, and he\u2019s got twenty-six days to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Russians are maneuvering to support a new strategy:  to break away the eastern regions of Ukraine to become a separate country, beholden to Russia.  And he\u2019s made it clear that he will conquer the region regardless of the cost to the Ukrainian people.  Look at the city of Mariupol, now leveled, with tens of thousands of civilian casualties.  It is what Putin wants every Ukrainian to see, surrender, or face total destruction if they stand against the Russian forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Re-Arming<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But Ukraine is clear \u2013 there will be no surrender, anywhere in the country.  And as the Russians regroup, the Ukrainians are rearming.  The United States and NATO are getting more sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainian Army.  It\u2019s a complex dilemma for the United States; the Ukrainian Army is essentially equipped with Soviet era weaponry.  The US cannot just supply them with American complex armament, the Ukrainian don\u2019t know how to use it.  So the US is finding older Russian and Soviet weapons, from other former countries under Soviet control, to move quickly into Ukrainian hands.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is, by the way, why there was such a controversy over the Polish MiG 29\u2019s that were offered several weeks ago.  Ukrainian pilots can\u2019t just switch over to US planes, they are trained on MiG\u2019s.  But the Poles were unwilling to risk directly transferring the planes and risk further Russian ire.  They wanted to gives the MiG\u2019s to the US Air Force at Ramstein AFB, to then be given to the Ukrainians.  But the US didn\u2019t want to be the intermediary, and so the deal fell apart.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin\u2019s Choice<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Vladimir Putin has one choice for victory in Ukraine now, a scorched-earth policy of civilian destruction.  He\u2019s brought in a new commanding General,  Alexander Dvornikov, known as the \u201cbutcher\u201d of Aleppo and Grozny for his brutal battle tactics without regard for civilian casualties.  He\u2019s moved his armies away from Kyiv and the northern borders, to an all-or-nothing attack along the east and south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Ukraine is rushing to move their troops to counter the Russian shift, and to re-arm them with the weaponry pouring in across the borders from the West.  US drone weapons, anti-tank missiles, and even Russian made helicopters are headed into battle.  Both sides recognize:  whatever is going to happen, it\u2019s happening in the next twenty-six days.  Putin\u2019s personal deadline is near.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essays on the Invasion of Ukraine<\/h6>\n\n\n\n