{"id":5487,"date":"2022-04-10T10:10:42","date_gmt":"2022-04-10T14:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5487"},"modified":"2022-04-10T11:35:05","modified_gmt":"2022-04-10T15:35:05","slug":"chapter-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/04\/10\/chapter-two\/","title":{"rendered":"Chapter Two"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

War Crimes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Russian invasion is not over.  Even though there seems to be a \u201cpause\u201d, while Russian troops committed to the failed \u201cdecapitation\u201d attack on Kyiv are withdrawn, Putin is not done.  The Ukrainians have scored a \u201ctactical\u201d and moral victory, but Russia is just starting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To understand that, you simply have to look at what Russia forces have done in Ukraine.  The war crimes; intentional infliction of civilian casualties, the blatant targeting of children, the \u201cscorched earth\u201d destruction of villages and cities:  all signal a long-term commitment to \u201cwinning\u201d.  No nation can intentionally commit those acts with the idea that they can then withdraw to the original lines.  Things will NEVER be the same, between Russia and Ukraine, and with the rest of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the truly evil Russian strategy is now apparent.  The choice they are offering the Ukrainian people is either submit to Russian control, or die.  It\u2019s not about battles between armies, but a World War II view of total civilian devastation.  Russia\u2019s done this before:  in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria.  The difference this time, is that the Russians haven\u2019t won the battles, so they can\u2019t write the story.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian defense is brilliant.  But just as brilliant is the Ukrainian public relations campaign.  President Zelenskyy, a product of mass media, is leading his nation in making their case to the world.  The mayors of the cities, the young members of the Ukrainian legislature, the troop commanders; all are widely accessible to the world press.  And clearly, they are all on the same \u201cpage\u201d.  Their message:  more aid, better supplies, bigger weapons.   And just as importantly:  cut Russia off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world will not come to Ukraine\u2019s rescue militarily.  NATO\u2019s message to Putin is also clear:  the alliance will do everything it can to support Ukraine short of direct military involvement.  That is, as long as Russia keeps the military action within the borders of Ukraine, and keeps weapons of mass destruction \u201coff the table\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s left for the world to do?  Completely cut Russia off from world trade, most importantly from the world oil and gas markets.  It\u2019s not just about Europe and the United States; India and China are long-term Russian fossil fuel customers.  While Ukrainians are sacrificing their homes and lives and families, they are asking the rest of the world to commit to sacrifice economically.  Higher fuel prices worldwide would be the result.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Next Phase<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The next phase of the Russian Invasion will be to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region, and break those eastern provinces away from Ukrainian control.  Then they will try to castrate the Ukrainian economy by capturing the entire Black Sea coast, cutting off sea routes into the nation.   The siege of port city of Mariupol is part of that strategy, though little of the city of almost half a million is going to be left when it\u2019s over.  But whatever the fate of Mariupol is, the next Russian offensive will be from the territory they already control in Crimea against the city of Kherson.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kherson is the key  to the western Black Sea coast, and the ultimate goal for Russian control: Odessa.  That\u2019s the major port city serving Ukraine, and a Russian conquest there would signal total control of the Ukrainian seacoast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Victory\u2019s Cost<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The longer Ukraine holds out, the more impact Western sanctions will have on Russia. The question isn\u2019t about the determination of the Ukrainian people, nor of Putin\u2019s resolve to continue the attack. The question is \u2013 how long will the western nations continue their whole hearted support for Ukraine? As most of those nations are democracies, their support will be contingent on the continuing backing of their populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be lots of elections held in the Western democracies.  The peoples of those countries will be offered a choice:  sacrifice for Ukraine, or let Putin achieve his goals.  The forces of division and authoritarianism aren\u2019t just restricted to the United States (and Fox News<\/em>).  France, Great Britain, and several of the Eastern European nations have similar issues.  If sacrificing for Ukraine becomes a \u201cpolitical\u201d issue (and these days what isn\u2019t) then even Zelenskyy\u2019s best media efforts won\u2019t be enough to get the true support he needs.  He knows he has to win a victory in Columbus and Pittsburgh, as well as Kherson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fate of Ukraine is up to the Ukrainians, but it also is up to us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis<\/h5>\n\n\n\n