{"id":5450,"date":"2022-03-26T09:19:32","date_gmt":"2022-03-26T13:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5450"},"modified":"2022-03-27T08:46:31","modified_gmt":"2022-03-27T12:46:31","slug":"putins-choice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/03\/26\/putins-choice\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin’s Choice"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Changing Strategy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Associated Press reported this morning that Russia \u201cmay\u201d change strategy in Ukraine. The month long invasion is stalled: the divisions surrounding Kyiv seem unable to close in on the city and are actually being pushed back from the northwestern suburbs. And while Russian long-range artillery, missiles and air attacks are still laying waste to civilian targets, killing thousands; Ukraine shows no signs of surrender. Even the hundred thousand starving in Mariupol refuse to give up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP speculation comes from the Russian Defense Minister who changed \u201cthe message\u201d from Moscow. Instead of \u201cde-Nazifying\u201d all of Ukraine, all of a sudden he speaks of \u201cconsolidating\u201d the Eastern Provinces of Donbas as \u201cindependent\u201d of Ukraine and continuing to control the critical naval bases in Crimea. In short, Russia is talking about keeping what they already had, before the tanks rolled across the borders and the missiles attacked civilian targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But one man speaking from Moscow is NOT a change in strategy, unless that one man is Vladimir Putin. So there\u2019s nothing certain for Russian forces in Ukraine. What is certain: Ukrainian resistance has embarrassed the \u201csecond greatest\u201d power in the world. They did not retreat, they did not fold, and the Russian Army is faced with many thousands of soldiers killed and wounded, for little gained. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian History<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Those facts are not lost on Putin.\u00a0\u00a0He has only to look back sixty years into Russian history to foresee his future.\u00a0\u00a0In 1962, the Premier of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, determined to counter US nuclear weapons in Turkey by placing Soviet missiles in Cuba.\u00a0\u00a0The technical reason was a request for mutual defense from the Cuban government.\u00a0 Cuban leader Fidel\u00a0Castro was fresh off a US sponsored invasion at the Bay of Pigs, an attack that failed miserably and left the new Kennedy Administration looking incompetent and weak.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khrushchev followed up with massive military aid to Cuba, and secret development of missile launch sites on the Island.\u00a0\u00a0American U-2 spy planes revealed those sites to the Kennedy government, and the young President was faced with a dilemma.\u00a0\u00a0No US President could allow hostile nuclear weapons ninety miles off the coast.\u00a0\u00a0But attacks on the missile sites were guaranteed to cause Soviet casualties, and could trigger a nuclear launch, and World War III.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Missile Crisis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The resulting confrontation is known as the Cuban Missile Crisis.\u00a0\u00a0The world teetered on the brink of nuclear disaster, as US Naval ships and Soviet submarines were head-to-head in the Caribbean.\u00a0\u00a0Premier Khrushchev realized he had \u201coverreached\u201d, and while the ultimate solution included removing the US missiles from Turkey, it was the public removal of the missile bases from Cuba that became the headlines.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviets were defeated and worse, humiliated on the world stage.\u00a0\u00a0Kennedy out-maneuvered the Soviet leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Kennedy and Khrushchev would be out of power within two years.\u00a0\u00a0Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas in November of 1963.\u00a0\u00a0His assassin had rumored connections to the Cuban government.\u00a0\u00a0Khrushchev was removed from office at gunpoint by the senior Soviet leadership in October of 1964.\u00a0\u00a0There were multiple reasons for the ouster, but his failure in the Cuban Missile Crisis loomed large.\u00a0\u00a0He spent the remaining seven years of his life isolated in a country \u201cdacha\u201d, living on 400 Rubles a month ($1300).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Cost of Adventure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Putin is the authoritarian leader of Russia, just as Khrushchev was in 1962.\u00a0\u00a0He led his nation into a military \u201cadventure\u201d in Ukraine that was only going to last a couple weeks.\u00a0\u00a0Now more than a month later, that invasion cost thousands of Russian soldiers lives, the destruction of the Russian economy, and caused the re-vitalization of the NATO alliance against Russia.\u00a0\u00a0At this point, Putin\u2019s \u201cadventure\u201d has weakened Russia in almost every category. It’s become his Cuban Missile Crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is possible that Putin recognizes the position he is in, and will cut his losses in Ukraine.  But it is just as possible that he will \u201cdouble-down\u201d on his Ukrainian strategy.  NATO has made the boundaries fairly clear:  no chemical or nuclear weapons, no attacks outside of the boundaries of Ukraine \u2013 and NATO will not directly intervene.  And the current humiliation of the Russian military may not be something that Putin can \u201clive\u201d with \u2013 both in principle, and perhaps, in reality.  He may not have a political choice to withdraw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without a Fight<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Is the Defense Minister\u2019s message signaling a crack in Russian leadership?  Or is it just another feint, another layer of propaganda to cover the mass destruction of the civilian population of Ukraine?  And, if it\u2019s a valid proposition, will President Zelenskyy of Ukraine accept the loss of the Donbas and Crimea as a price for peace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine is winning against the Russian invasion, even though the price of victory is extremely high. Perhaps they too will \u201cdouble-down\u201d, and demand that the territories \u201cdetached\u201d in 2014 return to Ukrainian control. It\u2019s difficult to imagine that Putin could swallow such a political humiliation, or survive it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His \u201cdacha\u201d, more of a palace, is located in Novorossiysk, on the Black Sea, just a few hundred miles from the battle lines today.  <\/strong>But it\u2019s hard to see that the former KGB officer would accept involuntary retirement there without a fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay on the Ukraine Crisis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n