{"id":5390,"date":"2022-03-03T09:46:16","date_gmt":"2022-03-03T14:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5390"},"modified":"2022-03-03T11:17:58","modified_gmt":"2022-03-03T16:17:58","slug":"ante-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/03\/03\/ante-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Ante Up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Americans United<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s one you haven\u2019t heard for a while \u2013 the vast majority of Americans are in favor of supporting Ukraine in their fight against the Russian invaders.  Eighty-three percent say they favor sanctions (CNN<\/a>).  I\u2019m not sure the \u201cvast majority\u201d of Americans have all been in favor of the same thing since \u2013 I don\u2019t know, maybe sometime right after 9-11.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are extremists on both sides still.  After all, we are America in the 21st Century.  On one extreme, you hear those that say this is really an \u201cinternal\u201d Russian problem, one that we can certainly deplore, but shouldn\u2019t act on. This, by the way, is also the stance of the China\u2019s President Xi.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side are the Americans, motivated by the incredible courage demonstrated by President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people, who want to launch direct attacks on the invading Russians.  That forty mile column of troops, trucks, and supplies stalled outside Kyiv provides a \u201cfat\u201d target.  They can envision the US Air Force A-10 Warthogs ranging up and down the column, expending every weapon and leaving a scene like the road out of Kuwait in the first Iraq War. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Playing Poker<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a tempting strategy.  We could follow it, what used to be called \u201cThe John Wayne\u201d school of diplomacy.  The US can be the Cavalry coming over the hill, saving the noble Ukrainian citizens from the cruel invader.   It would \u201ccall\u201d Putin\u2019s bluff; we would force him to deal with the full force of American might.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To further that poker analogy, Putin might do the \u201creasonable\u201d thing, and fold his hand, going to the negotiating table to try to save face.  If that happened, the US would be the hero of the world.  Or, as we watch on all those World Poker Tournaments on late-night TV, Putin might go \u201cAll-in\u201d.  In historic terms, that\u2019s called World War III, with nuclear as well as conventional weapons \u201con the table\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US has already drawn the \u201cline in the sand\u201d for Putin.  It\u2019s at the border of the NATO countries, and we\u2019ve not only promised to go \u201cJohn Wayne\u201d if he crosses that line \u2013 we\u2019ve put US troops in the way.  So before we leave the table, remember that what\u2019s happening in Ukraine is really only the first round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Margin<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Most reasonable people are not ready to go \u201cJohn Wayne\u201d yet.\u00a0\u00a0We are willing to impose massive economic sanctions on Russia, shutting off their banks and oligarchs from the wealth they\u2019ve accumulated in the thirty years since the fall of the Communist regime.\u00a0\u00a0We are hoping that by squeezing Russia\u2019s economy, the pressure from the citizens and from those oligarchs will force a stand-down from the current Russian strategy; an all-out destruction of the cities and people of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politicians in the United States are trying to find a way to \u201cplay the margin\u201d of the Ukraine crisis.\u00a0\u00a0Since the majority of both political parties favor supporting Ukraine, they all have to fall generally in line with the Biden Administration actions.\u00a0\u00a0Even\u00a0Fox News\u00a0<\/em>can only complain that\u00a0\u00a0\u201c\u2026Zelenskyy moves the world to tears, while Biden gets tepid reviews,\u201d (Fox<\/a>).\u00a0\u00a0So they complain that the sanctions aren\u2019t \u201ctough enough\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The margin they\u2019ve found, is that the United States, the current world leader in petroleum production, still imports millions of barrels of Russian oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian Oil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

To be clear, the US government isn\u2019t buying Russian oil, but US companies are.\u00a0\u00a0They do it because it\u2019s cheaper than trying to ship US oil from where most of it is in Texas and Oklahoma to the coasts.\u00a0\u00a0So, the \u201cmargin\u201d narrative goes, it\u2019s the Democrats fault, because Democrats are against pipelines, and pipelines could move that oil, and that\u2019s why we have 7% of US oil imports coming from Russia (WSJ<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The response falls right into the Republican talking point \u2013 these \u201ctree-hugging, AOC climate change believers\u201d have stopped the US from producing more oil and gas, and that\u2019s why we have to take Russian oil.   There\u2019s some truth to that, but the reality is that it\u2019s cheaper to import Russian oil for what US companies use it for, than to move American oil to the coasts.  Could we use other oil?  Absolutely, but there\u2019s a cost.  And that cost will be at the local gas pump, with higher gas prices.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that becomes the Republican battle cry, \u201cHigher Gas Prices because climate-changers are in charge!!!!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Game<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Biden Administration has a crisis in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0But they are also aware that there is a much longer term crisis in the environment, that isn\u2019t going away because Vladimir Putin has lost his mind.\u00a0\u00a0So they will hold their ground, and not spend valuable American dollars building more petroleum facilities, when those dollars can be spent for future renewable energy resources.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s likely that Biden will order a ban on Russian oil, and gas prices will go up.\u00a0\u00a0Biden will release more oil from the US strategic reserves to blunt the pain, but in the final analysis, Americans will have to answer a question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do you want to support the Ukrainian people? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then here\u2019s where you get to \u201cante up\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essays on the Ukraine Crisis<\/p>\n\n\n\n