Barbara Tuchman wrote a seminal book in 1962 called \u201cThe Guns of August\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0It made history \u201creadable\u201d, and explained the series of events that ended with an unintended consequence\u00a0\u00a0– the First World War.\u00a0\u00a0The book\u2019s impact was immediate.\u00a0\u00a0President John F. Kennedy and his aides read it, only months before the Cuban missile crisis began.\u00a0\u00a0After nuclear war was narrowly averted, he mentioned that the book\u2019s explanation of the unforeseen consequences of decisions made him even more wary as he picked his way through the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The essence of Tuchman\u2019s book is that while each step leading to World War I was foreseeable, no one at the time believed that a final catastrophic war would occur. My eighth grade classes from the 1980\u2019s got their own version of \u201cThe Guns of August\u201d, my favorite lecture. It defined all of the inter-actions that ended up in the meat grinder of trench warfare and millions of casualties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0Those students are now fifty-something year-olds, trying to help children and grandchildren with history.\u00a0\u00a0I\u2019ve heard from some, that their class chanting the lesson still echoes:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0\u201cThe British had Ships, the French had Guts,\u00a0\u00a0the Germans had Plans, Russia was Slow, the Italians were Switch-hitters, Austria-Hungary was Confused, Belgium wanted to be left Alone, Turkey was Sick, and then there was little, tiny, Small, Serbia\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The story is complex. Britain, France and Russia were allied in the \u201cTriple Entente\u201d. Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy and Turkey were in the \u201cTriple Alliance\u201d. Each of those nations also had \u201cside treaties\u201d with smaller nations in Europe. If it all sounds like NATO and Russia and its allies today, it should.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The \u201cspark\u201d that ignited a world conflagration war happened in Sarajevo, the capital of a province of the Austro-Hungarian Empire called Bosnia.\u00a0\u00a0It was in an obscure part of the world, but it set off the dominos that brought the whole world to war \u2013 even the United States was ultimately dragged in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our media today is filled with the courage of \u201cSmall\u201d Ukraine defending itself against the might of Russia. There is no question that the Russian invasion is an exercise of military conquest, with no legitimate cause. Russian President and authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin wants to reconstitute the Russian Empire (or the Soviet Union), and Ukraine is the first step. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But we are in a different world, one that absolutely cannot allow a \u201csmall\u201d war in Ukraine, in Kyiv, turn into a world conflagration.\u00a0\u00a0The difference between now and 1914 is the same that Kennedy faced in 1962, nuclear weapons.\u00a0\u00a0Russia and the United States are two of the \u201cbig three\u201d of nuclear warfare. Any moment those three are directly engaged with each other creates the ultimate risk at stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I’m watching the moment-to-moment coverage of the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s an incredible story of courage:\u00a0\u00a0the massive might of forty miles of Russian vehicles coming down the highway to Kyiv, as the\u00a0\u00a0Ukrainian citizens make Molotov cocktails from wine bottles and gather their hunting rifles (and their US supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles).\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not that the ultimate result is in question \u2013 but the free citizens of Ukraine will extract every ounce of Russian blood before they fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We Americans are always for the underdog.\u00a0\u00a0Rightfully, we stand up for democracy against authoritarianism, both here and in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0And the courage of Ukrainians demands that we act in their support.\u00a0\u00a0But that support must be tempered by tactical and strategic reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tactically, there is no place for United States ground forces in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0It is a simple issue of supply lines \u2013 our lines would be stretched across oceans; the Russians are fighting in their own \u201cbackyard\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0And strategically, there is no place for American Air Forces in Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s not that we can\u2019t get there; our NATO bases in Turkey, Poland and Germany are all near enough to support air attacks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n We could declare a \u201cno fly zone\u201d \u2013 and try to keep all of the Russian air-support on the ground.\u00a0\u00a0That would be of great benefit to the Ukrainians.\u00a0\u00a0The Russian columns are clearly stacked up along the highways, a Ukrainian helicopter or ground-support aircraft would devastate them.\u00a0\u00a0The only reason it isn\u2019t happening now is that Russia controls the skies over Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But a NATO (or US) \u201cno-fly-zone\u201d puts US aircraft in direct combat with Russian aircraft. And that \u201ccrosses the line\u201d of strategic engagement. It puts our two nuclear powers directly at each other\u2019s throats. We engage their aircraft. They (reasonably) attack our air support bases in NATO countries. We (reasonably) have to respond in-kind, attacking Russian bases in Russia. Neither side can ultimately be defeated \u2013 because that would require their use of nuclear weapons to \u201ceven\u201d the score. The slippery slope to nuclear conflict is terrifyingly steep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe Russians had tanks<\/em>, the United States had planes, and they both had bombs.\u00a0\u00a0And then there was \u201clittle\u201d Ukraine, the nation with guts\u201d<\/em>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s the \u201cchant\u201d today.\u00a0\u00a0As we watch the invasion of Ukraine, the United States should do everything we can to support them.\u00a0\u00a0Economic sanctions, military supplies, compassionate aid all make a difference.\u00a0\u00a0And we should make clear to Mr. Putin that Article Five of the NATO agreement means what it says:\u00a0\u00a0we will come to the direct military aid of NATO countries should he decide to invade them for his \u201cRussian Empire\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0There\u2019s the reason US troops are in Poland and the Baltic countries.\u00a0\u00a0They are a \u201ctrip-wire\u201d to trigger a direct US response to Russian aggression.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n But we cannot send US aircraft into Ukraine. We can only make it clear what the cost of invading NATO nations will be. And we can support democracy in Ukraine by every other means we have. Those should be the lessons of the \u201cGuns of March\u201d. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Courageous Citizens<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Stand for Democracy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Strategic Engagement<\/h3>\n\n\n\n