{"id":5370,"date":"2022-02-24T09:03:35","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T14:03:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=5370"},"modified":"2022-02-24T09:03:44","modified_gmt":"2022-02-24T14:03:44","slug":"what-happens-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/02\/24\/what-happens-next\/","title":{"rendered":"What Happens Next"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Putin<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Vladimir Putin, an authoritarian leader of a powerful nation, invaded a smaller neighbor today.\u00a0\u00a0He&#8217;s using Russia\u2019s overwhelming military might to attack the sovereign nation of Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0There was no \u201cfalse flag\u201d operation, no trickery.\u00a0\u00a0The missiles fired, the helicopters took flight, the jets dropped their bombs.\u00a0\u00a0It was the first, \u201cpunch in the nose\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here in the 21st Century, it hard to imagine what 1914 or 1939 felt like.&nbsp;&nbsp;We thought we were beyond \u201ctanks at the border\u201d or \u201coccupation forces\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Wars were relegated to outlaw regimes, strikes against the likes of Saddam Hussein or the Taliban in Afghanistan.&nbsp;&nbsp;But President Putin of Russia has committed massive forces, nearly 200,000 troops, to the ultimate conquest of Ukraine.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s not the \u201cshock and awe\u201d of the 1992 US attack on Baghdad.&nbsp;&nbsp;It\u2019s the early beginnings:&nbsp;&nbsp;destroy command and control centers, anti-aircraft sites, and border defenses.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But even now, the growl of tanks, missile launchers and troop carriers is heard at the Ukrainian border with Russian-allied neighbor, Belarus.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Last night Putin made it clear that this was an invasion, his \u201cfirst-step\u201d in rebuilding \u201cgreater Russia\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0To paraphrase John F. Kennedy in a different era:\u00a0\u00a0Putin is willing to, \u201c\u2026pay any price, bear any burden,\u201d to fulfill his self-described destiny of bringing back the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Echoes of History<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The citizens of Ukraine aren\u2019t \u201cshocked\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0There was plenty of warning.\u00a0\u00a0But they line up at the gas stations and ATM\u2019s, and fill the highways with cars bound away from the city center in Kyiv.\u00a0\u00a0Ukraine is no small nation \u2013 as broad as the distance from New York to Chicago, as wide as Toronto to Charlotte, North Carolina.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Even on a normal day, the drive across country takes many hours.\u00a0\u00a0And it\u2019s hard to say where to go \u2013 Russian troops are to the North, East, South, and on the Northwest and Southwest borders.\u00a0\u00a0There is no easy exit, no \u201csafe zone\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For old history teachers like me, the names echo other wars and times.\u00a0\u00a0Ukraine was the battle zone of the twentieth century.\u00a0\u00a0The \u201cfront\u201d between Russian and Austro-Hungarian forces swept back and for across Ukraine in the First World War. In the Second, the Nazi juggernaut battled through Kyiv and Karkhiv and Donetsk on its way to its ultimate disaster at Stalingrad in Russia.\u00a0\u00a0The Ukrainian people bore some of the worst suffering of that War.\u00a0\u00a0And\u00a0\u00a0Jewish Ukrainians faced extinction.\u00a0\u00a0More than 33,000 were killed in just two days at Babi Yar, outside of Kyiv.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Response<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That was another generation, a time we thought was long gone.&nbsp;&nbsp;But the tanks are lined up at the border.&nbsp;&nbsp;And the nations of the \u201cwest\u201d can do little to help the Ukrainian people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What can \u201cthe west\u201d do? (<em>Using the term \u201cthe west\u201d is falling back into old Cold War language, the \u201cwest\u201d versus the Communist \u201ceast\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;Even Putin\u2019s press secretary echoed that language \u2013 saying the Russia \u201cwill not live behind an \u2018Iron Curtain\u2019\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;And of course, Putin brought back the specter of nuclear holocaust, reminding the world that his is one of the largest nuclear forces in the world).&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em>The \u201cwest\u201d, the countries allied in NATO (<em>another reminder of the Cold War)<\/em>, can disentangle their economies from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can cut them off.\u00a0\u00a0Russia offers mostly oil and natural gas \u2013 we can \u201cbear the burden\u201d here in the United States.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The world oil supply will shrink if we cut off supplies from Russia.\u00a0\u00a0That reduction will inevitably raises prices, even if the \u201cwest\u201d can pressure the Saudi\u2019s to increase oil production.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">American Way<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States is self-absorbed.\u00a0\u00a0We wrap ourselves up in our politics and our social issues.\u00a0\u00a0Even the threat of a world pandemic divided us from each other.\u00a0\u00a0So how will the American people respond to the \u201cburden\u201d of supporting Ukraine?\u00a0\u00a0Even more, what will we do if Putin goes \u201call-in\u201d and tries to attack those former Soviet states that are in NATO, those that we are obligated to defend by treaty.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some politicians and \u201cmedia personalities\u201d (I don\u2019t know how else to characterize Tucker Carlson) have already taken Putin\u2019s side.&nbsp;&nbsp;They somehow see common purpose with a Russian Empire, and think they can make political \u201chay\u201d here in America by defending his aggressions.&nbsp;&nbsp;So it\u2019s an open question whether the American people will unite against Russian expansion, and be willing to make sacrifices for that cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It doesn\u2019t seem like the \u201cAmerican Way\u201d anymore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The people of Ukraine have made a choice.&nbsp;&nbsp;They face invasion and occupation, but they are standing against Russia.&nbsp;&nbsp;How long they will last, it\u2019s hard to say \u2013 but Ukraine has a long tradition of resistance to occupiers.&nbsp;&nbsp;While their government may be driven into exile, it\u2019s likely the citizens will not make it easy on Russia.&nbsp;&nbsp;And in the meantime \u2013 what is the rest of the world willing to offer to protest and defend against further Russian incursions?&nbsp;&nbsp;What of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and rest of the countries who languished behind the real Iron Curtain for forty-five years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What will the American Way be then?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Putin Vladimir Putin, an authoritarian leader of a powerful nation, invaded a smaller neighbor today.\u00a0\u00a0He&#8217;s using Russia\u2019s overwhelming military might to attack the sovereign nation of Ukraine.\u00a0\u00a0There was no \u201cfalse flag\u201d operation, no trickery.\u00a0\u00a0The missiles fired, the helicopters took flight, the jets dropped their bombs.\u00a0\u00a0It was the first, \u201cpunch in the nose\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 Here in the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/02\/24\/what-happens-next\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;What Happens Next&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Happens Next : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia invades a sovereign neighbor, Ukraine. 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