<\/strong>to 1978. The Vietnam War was just ending, but the larger Cold War was at its height. The world was poised on the brink between the nuclear weapons of the United States and the Soviet Union, weapons that could destroy the world several times over. \u201cMoscow in flames, bombs on the way, film at eleven,\u201d was a dark joke with way too much truth to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\nWhile I learned a lot about the American Constitutional system and the functions of American government, my favorite courses were about what led us to the current crisis of our time. I took \u201cWar and Revolution in the Twentieth Century\u201d, \u201cModern European History\u201d, World Political Geography\u201d, and \u201cHistory of the Modern Middle East\u201d. But my favorite course was \u201cProblems in American National Security Policy\u201d. The title was too long to explain \u2013 so the \u201cshortcut\u201d name for the course was \u201cBombs 360\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cold War<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The \u201cCold\u201d of the Cold War was really more of a goal: that neither the US or the USSR would use nuclear weapons to resolve their conflict. Atomic weapons were used once, against Japan in the actions that ended World War II. The damage done by those two bombs was comparable to the conventional fire bombings of Tokyo, Japan (90,000 killed) or Dresden, Germany (25,000 killed). But Hiroshima (90,000 to 140,000 killed) and Nagasaki (60,000 to 80,000 killed) were qualitatively different. The Tokyo and Dresden attacks took hundreds of bombers and thousands of airmen to cause the devastation. Hiroshima and Nagasaki each required just one plane, with a crew of twelve, and one bomb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The power of nuclear bombs seemed virtually limitless. By the time I was studying the subject in 1975, the B-52 bombers that took off from nearby Lockbourne Airbase (now Rickenbacker) had four nuclear weapons, each three hundred times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan. Twenty megaton bombs were \u201cstandard\u201d, well over a thousand times those first atom bombs. The Soviets even tested a sixty megaton device.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Attack and Counter<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Learning about foreign policy in the shadow of nuclear holocaust was all about maneuvering just short of the nuclear threshold. Whatever the Soviet Union and it\u2019s \u201callies\u201d or the United States and its coalitions did, it couldn\u2019t be an action that would \u201cforce\u201d the nuclear hand of the other. The United States tried to develop the \u201cStar Wars\u201d anti-nuclear missile project. It didn\u2019t work out (thirty-five years later we\u2019re still trying to stop \u201ca missile with a missile\u201d) but if it had, then the Soviet Union might be forced into a \u201cfirst strike\u201d with nuclear weapons. The would either use them before they were blocked, or lose their functionality entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But both the US and the USSR played a worldwide game of conventional, non-nuclear military threats, attacks and feints. The US was involved in the War in Vietnam. The USSR was supplying the North Vietnamese military and fighting the Americans with Soviet pilots flying some North Vietnamese fighters. The USSR invaded Afghanistan. The US supplied the Mujahedeen (Afghan fighters) and ultimately drove the Soviets out. (And yes, some of those Afghans later fought just as hard to throw the US out as well).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iron Curtain<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
But the essential flashpoint of the Cold War wasn\u2019t in Southeast Asia, nor even in Central America (Cuba, Nicaragua). Those were the points of harassment, but not the real point of conflict. That was the border between Soviet controlled Eastern Europe and the free nations of the NATO alliance. That\u2019s where the tanks were poised, the fighting planes were circling, and the thousands of American and Soviet troops stared across the barbed wire and walls. Churchill aptly named \u201cthe line\u201d the Iron Curtain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The American, British, French and German troops stood poised to defend. The Soviet tank corps stood ready to roll. World War III often was in the hands of junior officers, who might make the wrong move, and create a crisis that could engulf the world. It was in this era \u2013 from 1948 to 1989 — that both the Soviets and the United States and NATO, learned to do \u201cthe dance\u201d of Cold War diplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Reagan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
I was never a supporter of Ronald Reagan as President, but there is one issue where he proved to be successful. The Reagan Administration determined that the United States, with a GDP (gross domestic product) of $3 trillion, could outspend the Soviet Union with $1.2 trillion GDP. So we began to build missiles and planes, tanks and aircraft carriers, advanced submarines and possible space weapons. The Soviets might not want to compete economically, but they had little choice but to try to stay \u201cin the game\u201d. After eight years, the financial pressure wrecked the Soviet economy, and caused the fall of the Communist government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
When the Union fell, the Eastern European countries under Soviet control gained independence: Poland, Czechoslovakia (now Czech Republic and Slovakia), Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, East Germany, and Albania. Several other European states, integrated in the Union itself, broke away to be independent: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine set up their own governments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
So endeth the history lesson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The modern day President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, grew up in the Soviet Union as an up-and-coming member of the KGB, the Soviet spy organization. When the Soviet Union fell, Putin \u201cmorphed\u201d into a successful politician, using his Intelligence skills and making deals with oligarchs who got rich on the Soviet collapse to gain the Presidency. He has been leading Russia since 1999 (though he installed a \u201cpuppet\u201d President in his stead for four years). His goal is to regain the power of the Russian Empire \u2013 the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are over 100,000 Russian troops on three sides of Ukraine. They are poised to strike, to return Ukraine to the Rodina, <\/em>the traditional Russian homeland. While there are 170,000 soldiers in the Ukrainian Army, the Russians out-power them in weaponry, technology, and perhaps most importantly, supplies. But make no mistake, an all-out invasion of Ukraine by Russia wouldn\u2019t just be video of tanks streaming towards Kyiv. There would be a fight, an ugly fight, that wouldn\u2019t end when the Russians inevitably took nominal control. The Ukrainians are already prepared for an insurgency after a Russian takeover.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPutin’s Dream<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So if Putin is determined to have Ukraine, he will have it. But it will have a cost, not just in Ukraine itself, but in the NATO reaction throughout Europe. Russia is facing huge economic sanctions that could detach them from the world economy. And NATO is making it clear: while Ukraine is not a part of NATO, many of the other former Soviet states are, and NATO will defend them from attack. Need a demonstration of that resolve? 3000 additional US Troops are shipping to Eastern Europe now. They are a \u201ctrip-wire\u201d: attack them and \u201call bets are off\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vladimir Putin is a skilled negotiator. It may be that he is simply playing out a \u201cbluff\u201d, that, with the right incentives, can be called off. And the Biden Administration and NATO are giving him both some incentives to back down, and punishments if he chooses not to. In the end, it comes down to whether Putin is \u201cjust\u201d looking for an edge, or is determined to fulfill his dream of rebuilding the Russian Empire. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Cost<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
But Putin is also aware of why the Soviet Union failed. Russia\u2019s 2021 GDP was $1.7 Trillion. The European Union GDP was $17 Trillion. And the US 2021 GDP, was $23 Trillion (because you want to know: China 2021 GDP $18 Trillion). So while Putin may have more tanks and planes than Ukraine, he is in no position to \u201cwin\u201d an economic war with NATO and the US. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s not really about what Putin wants \u2013 it\u2019s about the resolve of the US and NATO to protect those Eastern European states. And it\u2019s probably not a \u201cblood\u201d issue \u2013 it\u2019s an issue of treasure. Will NATO allies will spend enough of their treasure to \u201cbuy\u201d the poker game that Putin is playing? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And that\u2019s an old \u201cCold War\u201d maneuver. Thanks for the solution, Mr. Reagan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bombs I went to Denison University to study history and political science from 1974 to 1978. The Vietnam War was just ending, but the larger Cold War was at its height. The world was poised on the brink between the nuclear weapons of the United States and the Soviet Union, weapons that could destroy the world several times … Continue reading “Trip Wire”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nTrip Wire : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here's the history behind the crisis in Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/02\/03\/trip-wire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trip Wire : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Here's the history behind the crisis in Ukraine.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2022\/02\/03\/trip-wire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/m.facebook.com\/Dahlmanonline-610417212502642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/m.facebook.com\/Dahlmanonline-610417212502642\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-03T11:58:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-03T12:00:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dahlman.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/IMG_3564-e1488996194684.jpg?fit=480%2C640&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"480\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marty Dahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@martydahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@martydahlman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marty Dahlman\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marty Dahlman\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5fa8c1b0305cf5f1f3633225843e621c\"},\"headline\":\"Trip Wire\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-03T11:58:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-03T12:00:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1500,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5fa8c1b0305cf5f1f3633225843e621c\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/dahlman.online\\\/index.php\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/03\\\/trip-wire\\\/\",\"name\":\"Trip Wire : Our America - 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