{"id":4960,"date":"2021-11-04T08:56:18","date_gmt":"2021-11-04T12:56:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=4960"},"modified":"2021-11-04T09:34:05","modified_gmt":"2021-11-04T13:34:05","slug":"lessons-from-election-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2021\/11\/04\/lessons-from-election-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons from Election Day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Disaster<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Democrats got surprised on Tuesday.  While the vote differences were narrow, the Party took a hit in Virginia, losing all of the statewide elective offices and control of the House of Delegates.  Democrats went from  holding all of the levers of power, to just the Virginia Senate. And in New Jersey, the Democratic Governor maintained office by the literal \u201cskin of his teeth\u201d, though the final vote tallies aren\u2019t complete.  From the Democratic standpoint \u2013 it was a disaster, but not a catastrophe (unless you\u2019re a Democrat in Virginia). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s a big hit for the Party (and I would argue for the country), but more importantly, there are lessons to be learned, before 2022 and even more before 2024.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One \u2013 Forgiveness<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I will never forgive the Republican Party for the agony of Trumpism.  I hold the leadership accountable for what our nation (and world) has gone through in the past five years, in part because of alleged leaders like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy.  At every opportunity to disavow Donald Trump, they did the politically expedient thing, not the courageous thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it really doesn\u2019t matter whether I forgive the Republicans or not.  Clearly the \u201cswing vote\u201d has granted absolution (or Amnesia<\/a>) and is moving on.  It doesn\u2019t matter what I think, it matters what the voters are going to do.  And the first lesson is the same lesson we should have learned from 2020, when Trump lost, but Republicans \u201cdown-ticket\u201d did well.  Regardless of what we Democrats think, the \u201cmiddle \u201c of the nation wants to get back to business as usual.  IF, and that\u2019s a big IF, they hold anyone accountable for Trumpism, it\u2019s Trump himself. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two \u2013 Proof<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

You will hear Progressives, many my good friends, use the Virginia election as \u201cproof positive\u201d that moderation isn\u2019t the answer.  They will, with some cause, say that more Progressive candidates will energize the Democratic vote, and that moderates like Terry McAuliffe or Phil Murphy simply can\u2019t succeed.  That lesson may be valid, but here\u2019s the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Progressives haven\u2019t shown proof that they can govern, yet.  You will hear the McAuliffe team complain that Congress left Terry hanging, without either the infrastructure or the Build Back Better bill completed.  The perception is that Progressives can\u2019t get \u201cthings\u201d done (though it just as reasonable an argument that the \u201cconservative\u201d Democrats are at fault).  Rather than haggle as to who should bear the blame for the Virginia debacle, Congressional Dems need to complete something.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They need to get the bills done.  Build Back Better and Infrastructure need to go to Biden\u2019s desk for signature. Democrats in the field cannot campaign on \u201cwe\u2019re almost finished\u201d.  They\u2019ve got to prove it, and until they do, voters aren\u2019t convinced anything will happen.  We\u2019ve spent enough time waiting for the chaos in Congress to resolve \u2013 it\u2019s time to close the deal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three \u2013 Inexorable History<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

This may relate to Lesson One.  In my view Donald Trump was\/is an inflexion point of American History.  Things were different before, during, and after the Trump Presidency.  Because of that inflexion point, I thought the historic \u201crules\u201d of elections were altered.  But they don\u2019t seem to be changed.  Traditionally, the party the won the Presidency loses the Virginia Governorship the next year.  That happened.  Traditionally the Party that wins the Presidency loses ground in the next Congressional election.  That may be coming.  Democrats, like Terry McAuliffe, are \u201cswimming upstream\u201d.  We better become stronger swimmers, fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four \u2013 Governing is Hard<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Every executive leader; from President Biden to state Governors, to Mayors and local school superintendents,  has tried to govern through the Covid pandemic.  They\u2019ve had to do \u201chard\u201d things:  business shutdowns, school closings, mask and vaccine mandates.  Those leaders (even Republicans like Mike DeWine in Ohio and Larry Hogan of Maryland) have followed the science, even when it shifted and changed, to protect their citizens.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But America is really tired of Covid.  When we missed the opportunity to end our pandemic in 2020, and allowed the development of more contagious variants, many Americans had enough.  They decided to \u201clive\u201d with Covid, rather than protect themselves from it.  We\u2019ve paid, and are still paying, a huge price for those decisions.  770,000 Americans are dead from Covid, almost 40% more than any other country in the world.  More than 8,000 are still dying each week (OurWorld<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But no one likes the bearer of \u201cbad news\u201d.  And those leaders have time and time again been that bearer.  Governors like Phil Murphy in New Jersey paid the price for that leadership, and while he survived, it\u2019s likely that others, like Mike DeWine in Ohio won\u2019t.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five \u2013 Final Lesson<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We are still a nation of three camps.  There is the Trumpian Republican Party, and there is no hope for them.  They are who they are, and they will not be persuaded otherwise.  As a Democrat they are simply a block that will always be against whatever you are for.  The key is will they show up and vote, or believe their leader that the elections are rigged. By the way, I haven\u2019t heard any cries of \u201celection fraud\u201d in Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there is the Democratic \u201cblock\u201d, a little larger than the Trumpians. They too are going to vote in a mass. But they too need to be motivated to \u201cshow up\u201d, and if Democrats don\u2019t show success on the issues they care about, they won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And finally there is still a \u201cmiddle\u201d, and that middle seems to be the one that decides elections in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan (and maybe even Ohio).  The middle is sensitive to the \u201cwedge\u201d issues, even ones that are fake like Critical Race Theory (CRT \u2013 Bending the Moral Universe<\/a>).  It\u2019s easy for Democrats to say that CRT is a false issue, but that doesn\u2019t change how the middle responds to it.  So we need to answer CRT, just as we needed to answer \u201cDefund the Police\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we have those answers.  We Democrats just have to \u201cstoop down\u201d to answer concerns that we feel are made up problems.  We think with Covid, the Insurrection, and all of the economic and real social issues we have, CRT and Defund aren\u2019t worth our time.  We\u2019re wrong. We need to answer to win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Disaster Democrats got surprised on Tuesday.  While the vote differences were narrow, the Party took a hit in Virginia, losing all of the statewide elective offices and control of the House of Delegates.  Democrats went from  holding all of the levers of power, to just the Virginia Senate. And in New Jersey, the Democratic Governor maintained office by … Continue reading “Lessons from Election Day”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nLessons from Election Day : Our America - 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