{"id":4841,"date":"2021-10-06T09:34:34","date_gmt":"2021-10-06T13:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/?p=4841"},"modified":"2021-10-06T09:34:38","modified_gmt":"2021-10-06T13:34:38","slug":"brinksmanship","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dahlman.online\/index.php\/2021\/10\/06\/brinksmanship\/","title":{"rendered":"Brinksmanship"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bombs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I was a history\/political science major at Denison University in Granville, Ohio.  One of the early courses I took was Poli Sci \u2013360, titled  \u201cProblems in American National Security\u201d.  The short name for the course was \u201cBombs\u201d.  It was about the \u201ctheories\u201d behind the nuclear standoff of the Cold War, and how the United States and the Soviet Union faced each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was the mid-1970\u2019s, and studying nuclear war was hardly an esoteric exercise.\u00a0\u00a0Two nations had the ultimate power to destroy the world. Both were poised on a hair trigger to do it.\u00a0\u00a0And with the advent of computerization, that trigger was becoming more automated.\u00a0\u00a0The proverbial finger on the button was more likely to be a series of binary equations adding up to \u201claunch\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MAD<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We learned terms like \u201cMutual Assured Destruction\u201d(MAD). That’s the idea that both sides knew full well that there was no winner in an all-out nuclear exchange.\u00a0\u00a0Odd, that the ultimate power to destroy the world was held back by weakness:\u00a0\u00a0if they can destroy us, we should not attack them.\u00a0\u00a0In fact, the greatest risk of war, was if one side found a \u201cnew tool\u201dallowing them to survive the all-out war.\u00a0\u00a0If one side could live to be \u201cthe winner\u201d, then the other side was ultimately vulnerable.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only choice that vulnerable side would have would be to attack:  to launch a \u201cFirst Strike\u201d all-out nuclear war, before the new tool could be fully implemented.  The two greatest threats for nuclear war were \u201caccidental\u201d triggers, and one side getting too great an advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And so the US and Soviet Union engaged in a series of technological races, to build a \u201cbetter bomb\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviets built bigger, the biggest bomb ever detonated. It was the 1961 \u201cTsar Bomb\u201d at fifty megatons (equivalent to fifty million tons of TNT) and 3800 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.\u00a0\u00a0And that was only at \u201chalf power\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0Even the Soviets were unwilling to try a 100 megaton blast.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0The United States went for targeting accuracy. There was no need to make the bombs bigger if they could land them directly on their targets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Edge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

And both sides engaged in \u201cbrinksmanship\u201d; moving as close to the edge of nuclear war as they could, without stepping over the line.\u00a0\u00a0The Cuban Missile Crisis was the most obvious example, but there were other, less known confrontations where the world was at risk.\u00a0\u00a0It was in 1983, a few weeks after the Soviets shot down a Korean Air Lines passenger flight. Soviet defense computers detected five US missiles launched.\u00a0\u00a0A Soviet Lieutenant Colonel, Stanislav Petrov, acting on his own, determined that this had to be a mistake. He stopped the \u201cautomatic\u201d launch response.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petrov was right:  the computers were in error.  And if he hadn\u2019t acted, it\u2019s likely nuclear war would have begun on the 26th of September.  His decision ended his military advancement, but it ultimately was seen as saving the world (US Park Service<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bankruptcy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Cold War ended when the United States invested over half a trillion dollars in a \u201cspace based\u201d defense program.\u00a0\u00a0The program was Strategic Defense Initiative, nicknamed \u201cStar Wars\u201d. It hoped to put satellites in space that could intercept any Soviet missiles fired against the United States.\u00a0\u00a0The Soviets tried to match the investment with their own programs, and the race became as much about money as weapons.\u00a0\u00a0Ultimately, \u201cStar Wars\u201d didn\u2019t work. But that and a failed war in Afghanistan bankrupted the Soviet economy and caused the fall of the Communist government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 If \u201cStar Wars\u201d had worked, it likely would have triggered a nuclear war.  The Soviets would have been forced to launch, before a \u201cStar Wars\u201d system could be put in place, otherwise, Mutual Assured Destruction would be over, and they would be ultimately vulnerable.  The United States \u201cplayed\u201d on the edge of nuclear destruction, and won economically:  brinksmanship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thirty years after \u201cStar Wars\u201d, the United States and Russia still have hundreds of weapons aimed at each other.  While the likelihood of nuclear devastation is less, we still have our missiles, bombers and submarines poised to strike.  And access to nuclear weapons is spreading to less-stable regimes:  North Korea likely has \u201cthe bomb\u201d, and Iran is working on one as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Edge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Today the United States government is \u201cplaying\u201d a different kind of brinksmanship.  The \u201cdebt ceiling\u201d was created during World War I, to allow the government room to borrow money to prosecute the war.  The debt ceiling is like a credit card limit, with one big difference.  The money is already spent:  Congress has already passed the laws spending the money.  So failing to raise the debt ceiling is  simply refusing to pay for money already spent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the United States fails to raise the debt ceiling, then the government begins to default on its debts.\u00a0\u00a0A failure of the US to pay its debts will create an economic crisis in the world,where the US Dollar is the bedrock currency.\u00a0\u00a0Even the talk of failing to honor the debt is causing economic repercussions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The House of Representatives already voted to raise the ceiling and pay the bills of the United States.\u00a0\u00a0But the Senate has not.\u00a0\u00a0Republicans are voting against it as a fifty vote block.\u00a0\u00a0In addition, the Republicans are also filibustering passage, creating the requirement that sixty Senators agree.\u00a0\u00a0And since the Senate is fifty-fifty, either ten Republican Senators must change their mind, or the fifty Democrats need to change the rules and end the filibuster for this issue, with Vice President Harris adding her vote to break the tie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a third option, the convoluted \u201cbudget reconciliation\u201d process that circumvents the filibuster.\u00a0\u00a0But reconciliation takes time, a long series of votes, and can only be used for a limited number to times in a session.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winners and Losers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell sees the deadlock as a \u201cwin-win-win\u201d situation for his Republicans.  He is depending on the Democrats to pass a debt ceiling increase, either using the reconciliation process or by breaking the filibuster.  If they use reconciliation, then they can\u2019t use it for other issues (like the Build-Back-Better infrastructure plan).  If Democrats vote to break the filibuster, then McConnell will be able to campaign on the \u201cDemocrats spending us into inflation\u201d.  And if they don\u2019t pass a debt ceiling increase \u2013 then the \u201cDemocrats can\u2019t govern\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Biden also see a \u201cwin-win\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0If the Republicans continue to refuse to raise the ceiling, then they are \u201cplaying politics with the American economy\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0And if Schumer and Biden refuse to use reconciliation, then they may force the \u201cswing\u201d Democrats to break the filibuster rule. That’s something they need for other legislation, like the voting rights acts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, all of this is premised on the idea that somewhere, somehow, the Senate WILL pass the debt ceiling, and that further damage to the US and world economies will be avoided.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0But that all depends on a \u201cColonel Petrov\u201d moment.\u00a0\u00a0Either two Democratic Senators vote to break the filibuster (with forty-eight of their fellow Democrats), or ten Republican Senators vote with the Democrats, to lift the debt ceiling.\u00a0\u00a0Some members of the Senate will need to see the catastrophe ahead, and decide to stop the \u201cautomatic response\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or the US defaults on its debts and our economy, along with the rest of the world\u2019s, goes over the brink. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bombs I was a history\/political science major at Denison University in Granville, Ohio.  One of the early courses I took was Poli Sci \u2013360, titled  \u201cProblems in American National Security\u201d.  The short name for the course was \u201cBombs\u201d.  It was about the \u201ctheories\u201d behind the nuclear standoff of the Cold War, and how the United States and the Soviet … Continue reading “Brinksmanship”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nBrinksmanship : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"During the Cold War, the US and USSR were on the brink of world destruction. 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