A plurality of Americans, 44%, do not \u201cidentify\u201d with a political party. They see themselves as independent. Of the rest, 30% see themselves as Democrats, and 25% Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But when asked which party they \u201clean\u201d towards, 49% of Americans over 18 identify as \u201cDemocrat or Democratic leaning\u201d. 40% identify as Republican or Republican leaning, and 11% see themselves as completely independent. That 9% Democratic lead in \u201cleaners\u201d is above the \u201cnorm\u201d. Democrats typically have a 4 to 6% lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So when you slice the pie almost half is \u201cindependent\u201d. The other half is unevenly divided between Blue and Red. But the candidates for major political office in America are determined by the two political parties, now representing just barely more than half of voters. The 30% of identified Democrats and 25% of identified Republicans will determine who gets to run for office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s a major dilemma for any American candidate. To get to run you have to win a primary, and that election is among only the most committed partisans. But to win the general election, where everyone can vote, somehow that candidate must gain \u201cthe leaners\u201d, less partisan and likely more moderate, as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So to win a Republican Party primary, a candidate must win 12.5% of the overall vote. And Republican candidates have clearly made the decision that at least 12.5% still support the 45th<\/sup> President of the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s a \u201cno-risk\u201d position for them. The \u201cslice of the slice\u201d who are \u201c45\u2019ers\u201d have made it very clear where they stand. There is no doubt: ask Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, or a host of local Republican office holders who know that the 2020 election wasn\u2019t \u201cfixed\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And the Republican caucus of the House of Representatives is a simple reflection of their primary electorate. So when House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy seems to uncomfortably straddle the political fence, he\u2019s trying to appeal to his caucus members. His hope: that the 2022 election will follow historic precedent, and that he will be elected to become Speaker of the House. <\/p>\n\n\n\n McCarthy\u2019s \u201cfence sitting\u201d was most apparent on the issue of the January 6th Commission. His chosen negotiator, Congressman John Katko of New York, worked out an agreement with Democrats. This was with the McCarthy\u2019s knowledge and blessing. But when the former President sent word that the caucus \u201cmust\u201d oppose the Commission, McCarthy, without apparent regret, threw Katko \u201cunder the bus\u201d and came out against it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From a longer view, the Republican Party seems committed to being a minority party. They are allowing the \u201c45-ers\u201d, around 12.5% of the total electorate, to determine their candidates and positions. They are committed to a nationwide policy of voter restriction, and actual interference in free and fair Elections. If their actions were occurring in another nation, we would be talking about sending in monitors to make sure the voting processes were fair. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And the Republican Party is in the process of \u201cpurging\u201d any member who does not agree with the \u201c45-ers\u201d. It\u2019s not just denying Liz Cheney a leadership position in the House of Representatives. They are organizing primary challenges to many \u201cmoderate\u201d Republican candidates, challenges that are likely to be successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Look at who\u2019s running for the Republican nomination for Senator in Missouri. The two leading candidates: former Governor Eric Greitens, who resigned from office after accusations of sexual assault and blackmail. And attorney Mark McCloskey, best known for brandishing an AR style rifle at Black Lives Matter protestors passing in front of his home. What they both have in common: oaths of fealty to the former President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s all about the 12.5%, and perhaps some of the rest of those that identify Republican. But it clearly ignores the real \u201celephant\u201d in the Republican room. What about the vast majority of the American electorate \u2013 some Democrat but the rest \u201cindependent\u201d? The Republican strategy is to keep them from voting, win their small slice of the pie, and declare victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And that\u2019s the American dilemma right now. The gerrymandering of political districts have created state legislatures that are dominated by extremist \u201c45-ers\u201d in many states, including here in Ohio. Those legislatures are \u201ccodifying\u201d an exclusive voting system, and in some states, taking legislative power over the election results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Instead of trying to win a majority, they are shaping elections where the minority can claim victory. If that sounds like Trump 2020, it should. It\u2019s the next step in the \u201cStop the Steal\u201d campaign that led to the Insurrection, a \u201clegal\u201d way of gaining control without a majority of the votes. It didn\u2019t end at the Capitol steps on January 6th. It just moved to the hallways of capitol buildings in Phoenix, Madison, Atlanta, and yes, here in Columbus as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The shirtless idiot wearing horns became the \u201cposter boy\u201d for the January 6th Insurrection.\u00a0\u00a0But the real leaders of the \u201crebellion\u201d\u00a0\u00a0now are the shirt and tied legislators in state capitols around the country.\u00a0\u00a0The insurrection continues.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0We have been warned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Doubling Down<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Pygmy Elephants<\/h3>\n\n\n\n