MSNBC\u2019s\u00a0<\/em>morning personality Joe Scarborough attack Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney on a Friday interview.\u00a0\u00a0Scarborough is a former conservative Republican Congressman from Florida. He demanded that Maloney answer for Democratic vulnerabilities on \u201csocialism\u201d and \u201cdefunding the police\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\nMaloney is the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DSCC). He’s in charge of getting Democrats elected to the House of Representatives.\u00a0\u00a0He had the temerity to call Scarborough out for using \u201cRepublican talking points\u201d:\u00a0\u00a0that the Democrats are all \u201csocialists\u201d and want to cut all funding to police departments.\u00a0\u00a0Scarborough lashed back, saying that Maloney would be to blame if Democrats lose the House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democrats don\u2019t need to defend socialism, because they\u2019re not socialists.\u00a0\u00a0But there is vulnerability in the \u201cdefunding\u201d issue.\u00a0\u00a0Democratic leadership quickly pushed back from \u201cdefunding\u201d when it came up in the Black Lives Matter protests, but their willingness to look at \u201crepurposing\u201d funds to solve non-law enforcement issues can be misinterpreted.\u00a0\u00a0\u201cDefunding\u201d is a loud slogan, and hard to move away from.\u00a0\u00a0It is a sticky point for the Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And finally, there is the \u201ccommon wisdom\u201d. \u201cEvery President,\u201d commentators like Scarborough intone, \u201closes seats in the Congress during the mid-term elections\u201d. And history is on Scarborough\u2019s side. In nineteen mid-term elections since World War II the opposition Party has gained seats. There were only three exceptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Precedent or Exception <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
In politics, the exceptions become the difference. Looking at those exceptions may well give Democrats hope to hold onto the Congress, and in fact increase their margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first exception is in 1934, two years after Franklin Roosevelt was first elected President. In 1932 Democrats won a massive landslide both in the Presidency and in the Congress. Two years later, they padded their lead in both, adding nine seats in both chambers. All of this is as a result of the early success of the New Deal legislation, as the United States struggled to emerge from the depths of the Great Depression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Roosevelt and the Congress got a lot done.\u00a0\u00a0They gave Americans hope for the future over the bleak present.\u00a0\u00a0That should sound vaguely familiar. Biden and the Congress have rapidly passed massive COVID relief, accelerated the vaccination program to reach almost all Americans, and now are working on an even bigger infrastructure legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The second exception was the 1998 midterm of Bill Clinton\u2019s Presidency.\u00a0\u00a0This was in the heart of Bill Clinton\u2019s sex scandal, but somehow the Democrats managed marginal gains in the House.\u00a0\u00a0The analysis:\u00a0\u00a0Americans didn\u2019t like what Clinton did, but they liked what he was getting done.\u00a0\u00a0And they were frustrated with Congressional focus on the scandal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And the third exception was the 2002 midterm.\u00a0\u00a0George Bush, a marginally elected President, was strong in leading the nation in response to 9\/11, and the nation responded approvingly by adding to Republican members of both Houses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Where Biden Stands<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
So will the mid-term elections of 2022 follow the pattern of the nineteen, or the three. My prediction is the latter, and here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Joe Biden, like Roosevelt, faced multiple national crises as he entered office.\u00a0\u00a0The economy was struggling from the impact of the pandemic, and the nation was suffering from the actual disease.\u00a0\u00a0Like Roosevelt\u2019s famous first 100 Days, Biden immediately set powerful goals and took action to alter the nation\u2019s course.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0In Biden\u2019s first 100 Days, over 84 million Americans have been fully vaccinated with another almost 50 million having at least one shot.\u00a0\u00a0The $1.9 trillion COVID relief package was passed through Congress on a straight party line vote, even though it was overwhelmingly popular with the electorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And Biden is proposing a $2 trillion infrastructure plan, that is likely to pass in some form through the Congress this year. The nation went from the disruption and disfunction of the Trump Administration to the carefully plotted action of the Biden Administration. That alone may be enough to increase Democratic Congressional seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And like George W. Bush, Biden entered in the midst of the national crisis of Insurrection. How Biden ultimately handles that situation, as well as the economy and the pandemic, will help determine what happens in the 2022 mid-terms more than \u201chistoric precedent\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And finally, many Americans are recognizing that the Republican Party in Congress has become the Party of obstruction. That, in the middle of the multiple problems facing the nation, puts them in the same position as they were in 1998. They are focused on something that the Nation doesn\u2019t care about. They may well pay an electoral price for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s Still Trump<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
But overriding all of that, is the factor that will be the most important in the 2022 elections.\u00a0\u00a0The Republican Party is clearly still the Party of Donald Trump.\u00a0\u00a0Republican voter turnout is \u201call about\u201d Trump himself.\u00a0\u00a0We saw that in the past three elections.\u00a0\u00a0In 2016 Trump managed to increase Republican turnout enough to eke out an Electoral College majority, and gain majorities in the House and Senate.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But with Trump not on the ticket in 2018, Republican turnout fell of sharply, and Democrats gained control of the House and made in-roads in the Senate. With Trump running again in 2020, Republicans gained some House seats back, but failed to regain control. In the Senate, the GOP lost control by the narrowest margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So in 2022, the Party of Trump will be running without the \u201cflag bearer\u201d on the ticket. Those that were driven to vote by Trump, won\u2019t show up. All of that puts Democrats in a strong position to increase both their House and Senate margins. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But it all depends on whether the Democratic voters will be as motivated to vote \u201cfor Democrats\u201d as much as they were to vote \u201cagainst Trump\u201d in 2018. If Democrats come out to vote, and the Trump voters don\u2019t \u2013 the outcome is clear. It\u2019s politics, and anything can happen. But the lessons of history are more nuanced than simply saying \u201cAll Presidents lose Congressional seats in the mid-terms\u201d. It\u2019s not all Presidents, and there\u2019s good reason to believe that it won\u2019t be this President either.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Democratic Doom The media doomsayers are already out:\u00a0\u00a0\u201cDemocrats will lose control of both the House and the Senate in 2022\u201d they cry, “and it\u2019s their own fault”.\u00a0\u00a0I watched\u00a0MSNBC\u2019s\u00a0morning personality Joe Scarborough attack Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney on a Friday interview.\u00a0\u00a0Scarborough is a former conservative Republican Congressman from Florida. He demanded that Maloney answer for … Continue reading “The Midterms”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Midterms : Our America - Essays on Politics and American Life<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So it's "into the weeds". 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